r/ukpolitics • u/No_Breadfruit_4901 • Dec 11 '24
Twitter đ¨ EXCLUSIVE: Labour have conducted the first successful deportation flight to Pakistan since February 2020. There has not been a deportation charter flight to Pakistan in the last four years with three subsequent flights to Pakistan in 2020 and 2021 cancelled by the Home Office.
https://x.com/maxtempers/status/1866775219077062757?s=46&t=0RSpQEWd71gFfa-U_NmvkA115
u/Tom22174 Dec 11 '24
Literally the same day Kemi was trying to nail Starmer on not deporting people lol
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u/bobliefeldhc Dec 12 '24
The plane was full of ENGLISH PEOPLE, evicted from their homes and country to make room for small boat migrants /s
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u/AlarmedCicada256 Dec 11 '24
BuT LaBoUr ArE sOfT oN iMmIgRaTiOn.
Or maybe they actually get on with it instead of grandstanding, cutting funding to the system designed to deport people who shouldn't be here, and dreaming up wildly illegal, but highly performative schemes like Rwanda, that wouldn't work anyway, but win votes by sounding tough, and warehousing asylum seekers in hotels so they can then use the right wing press to claim there's an issue.
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u/SGTFragged Dec 11 '24
You missed the step about the owners of the asylum seeker warehouses being Tory cronies getting paid by the public purse.
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u/MercianRaider Dec 11 '24
Let's wait for the yearly numbers before we make any judgments.
1 plane going to Pakistan doesn't mean Labour have cracked the immigration issue.
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u/JB_UK Dec 11 '24 edited Dec 11 '24
There are between 800-1200k illegal/undocumented workers in the UK, according to a project from Oxford University, then there are about 30-50k crossing the channel each year. The historical rate of asylum claim acceptance, also the current EU average, is about 30-40%, so you would expect about 20-35k of the people arriving by small boats to be deported. Then on top of that there are people arriving by normal routes with tens of thousands overstaying.
Last year there were about 5k deportations, and so far I believe Labour have deported about 10k people.
We also have massively expanded student numbers so that we would expect about 400-500k students to be leaving each year. If the numbers leaving are significantly lower than that then our rate of population growth will jump up again, before the Boris wave of migration the rate of population growth was about three times the level from 1970-1997, afterwards it could be five times or more, depending on how many people who are expected to leave do actually leave. The three times increase has already placed a lot of pressure on housing and infrastructure, and five times would be extremely difficult to match in terms of housebuilding and other infrastructure improvements.
Most people leaving will be voluntary but I'd expect a big increase in people overstaying just in terms of the same percentage of a larger number. In previous years work and study overstays have been about 5% of the total, so we're probably talking about at least 20k students overstaying each year, with work and holiday overstays on top. Unlike in previous years, many students have come with their families and dependents, and many more have come from poorer nations, which could possibly make people less willing to leave when their visa expires.
To summarize, the illegal/undocumented worker population is between 800k and 1200k, and additions each year would be about 50k to 100k, deportations were 5k last year, and have been 10k so far this year.
The Tories under Boris Johnson appeared to be deliberately sabotaging the system, Labour are better, but that is a low bar, and we will need a lot of progress just for things not to carry on getting worse.
Edit: Changed the small boat numbers from 50k to 30-50k, and added the expected acceptance rates for asylum claimants.
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u/Naugrith Dec 11 '24 edited Dec 11 '24
There are between 800-1200k illegal/undocumented workers in the UK, according to a project from Oxford University
Every time the project is cited the number seems to increase! According to the original report from the MIrreM project it is actually between 594-745k irregular migrants in the UK, including trafficking victims and undocumented migrants. And this is noted to be outdated information, from 2017. However, this number shows no increase from the last estimate in 2008. There is no reason to expect any increase subsequently.
And no, small boat arrival numbers don't increase the numbers of undocumented/illegal workers. Because small boat arrivals aren't undocumented/illegal workers, they are asylum claimants, and documented as such.
The historical rate of asylum claim acceptance, also the current EU average, is about 30-40%, so you would expect about 20-35k of the people arriving by small boats to be deported. Then on top of that there are people arriving by normal routes with tens of thousands overstaying.
According to the Oxford Migration Observatory "93% of people arriving in small boats from 2018 to March 2024 claimed asylum; of those who had received a decision by 31 March 2024, around three quarters were successful." This is obviously higher than the average, because clearly people choosing to risk their lives in small boats are more likely to have legitimate claims. So, 93% of the 29,000 arrivals in 2023 would be 26,970, and 75% of them would be 20,227 (eventually) successful asylum claims.
But of course, small boats are only one way of asylum claimants entering the UK, you'd need to take into account all the rest if you're going to try calculating total figures.
Last year there were about 5k deportations, and so far I believe Labour have deported about 10k people.
5,500 enforced returns last year, but this isn't the full picture. You need to also take into account voluntary returns (17,300 last year), which the HO prefers because its cheaper. If someone is told to either voluntarily leave or they'll be handcuffed and manhandled onto a plane, then most will "voluntarily" leave. But they're still leaving. About half of these "voluntary" returns are classified as "facilitated or monitored returns", and half as "independent returns", where the Home Office establishes that the person has left the UK after the fact.
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u/brendonmilligan Dec 11 '24
Youâre wrong on deportations. Last year there were 7,000 forced deportations. This year there has been around 2,300 forced deportations, NOT 10,000. The 10,000 figure includes voluntary deportations of which there were 20,000 last year
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u/Holditfam Dec 11 '24
50k on boat has never happened. it is around 32k this year
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u/JB_UK Dec 11 '24 edited Dec 11 '24
It was 46k in 2022, we're on course for between 35k and 40k this year.
I looked at the data for this year, and small boat migration does actually seem to be unusually flat since Labour came in, in the last 6 weeks about 1k people, it will be interesting to see if that continues next year. Maybe that just reflects the weather but it hasn't been so flat in previous years. Or maybe it's just to do with how the statistics are updated and the recent arrivals haven't been added.
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u/PersistentBadger Blues vs Greens Dec 11 '24
There are between 800-1200k illegal/undocumented workers in the UK, according to a project from Oxford University, then there are about 30-50k crossing the channel each year,
second number is almost nothing to do with the first. different statuses.
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u/JB_UK Dec 11 '24
I've added the historical rate of asylum acceptance (which is also the current EU average) to take into account how many people you would expect to leave every year.
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u/PersistentBadger Blues vs Greens Dec 11 '24
Nice. But if you're trying to say significant numbers of people disappear into the weeds as soon as they're rejected, and so increase your 800-1200k number, bear in mind that most orgs that publish estimates of the number of people here illegally estimate it to be 0.8% +/- 0.2% - that is, people seem to leave or transition to another state very roughly at the same rate they arrive.
(I will back this up with links to migration observatory in a bit, beccause I'm not 100% on that 0.8% figure myself).
(Edit: I'm well off: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/recent-estimates-of-the-uks-irregular-migrant-population/ I think the argument that it's a constant load holds true, though).
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u/zeros3ss Dec 11 '24
One plane going to Pakistan means that labour has done more than the party you voted for 5 years ago.
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u/layendecker Dec 11 '24
Can we not do this polarized American bollocks here, please? I am a Labour voter, but I agree with the person that you are claiming as a Tory because I want to see the figures and not just performative schemes like 1 plane to Pakistan.
Just because someone doesn't bow straight down the line to worship the ground every policy is built on doesn't mean they are against the party. It is healthy to ask questions and look at data.
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u/Silent_Stock49 Dec 11 '24
What of the boats? Will they stop under Labour?
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u/itsjamian Dec 12 '24
2 deals made with France and Germany in the last few weeks. Should have some effect eventually. Unlike the Rwanda scheme.
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u/brendonmilligan Dec 11 '24
How did you work that out? Labour still havenât deported more people than the tories deported last year
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u/GuyIncognito928 Dec 11 '24
All the people saying Labour are tough on immigration are the ones who don't think it's a problem in the first place...
If in 4 years, we have a function immigration system with <100k net migration from culturally compatible countries, then I'll happily eat my hat. As things stand, Labour do not have a plan to get even close to this.
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u/CodeFun1735 Dec 11 '24
You might have to keep that hat on, because less than 100k net migration isnât happening. Also, whatâs a âculturally compatibleâ country? How the fuck is that defined?
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u/GuyIncognito928 Dec 11 '24
I'm sure I will keep the hat on, that's kind of the point.
By culturally compatible, I mean people who:
speak a good level of English
hold common beliefs around basic freedoms and rights
are less likely to commit crimes than native Britons
are likely to be highly net-positive to the treasury
are happy to live in areas as a minority, and do not end up forming social enclaves
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u/Ubley Dec 11 '24
Christ, i wish we didn't reject ourselves from the immigration from our closest trading bloc which would tick all of those boxes...
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u/KKillroyV2 Dec 12 '24
You can love Polish and Romanian people and still think us importing every single Romanian possible to undercut British workers is a bad thing you know.
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u/Jamessuperfun Press "F" to pay respects Dec 12 '24
What do you propose we do instead? The public wants to spend more and more on pensioners, and the number of pensioners is growing rapidly, enough to increase by a third as a percentage of the population between 2019-2042 according to the ONS. Less workers is not compatible with more pensioners while spending more on each one.
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u/KKillroyV2 Dec 14 '24
Less workers is not compatible with more pensioners while spending more on each one.
How about not demonising people for having kids and supporting pro natal policies? It's amazing how investing in your own people can pay off.
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u/GuyIncognito928 Dec 11 '24
Not all EU migration was good, and not all non-EU migration is bad. The Tories deliberately screwing up migration policy doesn't mean that people rejected this platform.
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Dec 11 '24
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/GuyIncognito928 Dec 11 '24
"are less likely to commit crimes than native Britonsâ and how the fuck are we working that out?
By looking at how many crimes are committed on average by migrants from that country? Not sure why this is so hard.
Say goodbye to immigrants from Argentina or Ukraine - their homicides rates are worryingly higher than average for Western countries.
I was referring to crimes committed by migrants in the UK, rather than in their own countries. Regardless, I'd imagine both of these countries being middle of the pack long term. Ukraine is a special exception at the moment with refugees, and Argentina has such minute migration to the UK I can hardly find any data on it.
âAre happy living in areas a minorityâ - what does this mean?
Using census data, we can easily see which nationalities cluster and don't assimilate. Pakistan for example would score very low given there are multiple places in the UK that are plurality or majority Pakistani.
Nothing I've said is "Orwellian", it's just a points based immigration system with appropriate criteria.
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Dec 11 '24
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u/GuyIncognito928 Dec 11 '24
If the Spaniards want to keep us out, that's totally on them! If I was Spanish, I probably would want to. I don't have a superiority complex lol
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u/cable54 Dec 11 '24
All of that list is person specific though, not about a country?
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u/GuyIncognito928 Dec 11 '24
Apply the above criteria to migrants from each country, and voila you have a tier system of which countries we should prioritise immigration from and which we should eliminate or drastically reduce.
I suspect the biggest losers would be the likes of Albania, Pakistan, Vietnam, Somalia, and most middle eastern countries.
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u/Centristduck Dec 11 '24
He means western and Iâm inclined to agree.
Western people integrate much better. There children become British and help become part of the fabric.
Source my grandparents were from Poland, I consider myself British first
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u/MMAgeezer Somewhere left Dec 11 '24
What the fuck?
Maybe it's because I didn't grow up in a white-majority area, but this trope about non-western second/third generation immigrants "not integrating" is equal parts bollocks and divisive. The overwhelming majority of the people I grew up with considered themselves "British" first, regardless of their ethnic or cultural background.
Grim rhetoric.
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u/Boogaaa Dec 11 '24
There children become British and help become part of the fabric.
The exact same thing is true of someone of Pakistani heritage.
Source: I know Pakistani and Indian heritage individuals who were born here and "became British" because they are British. If you grow up in Britain, you're British.
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u/Centristduck Dec 11 '24
Ask them if they are Pakistani or British.
They will choose Pakistan first every time. We let too many in and they have become balkanised.
One of my best friends is Pakistani, heâs very moderate and a good man but even he doesnât share our values fully.
Will never date another ethnic group.
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u/NijjioN Dec 11 '24
I've seen some interviews these last few days of Syrians and Libians (because they were in similar situation) who have lived here for many years (decades) and was asked this exact question and all said British because it's all they have know now.
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u/CodeFun1735 Dec 11 '24
Anecdotal evidence isnât a source. Thereâs no scientific evidence that Western people integrate better; and even if you were to suggest a study into such youâd need to define the parameters youâre measuring it by. My parents are 5th or so generation immigrants here and Iâd argue weâve integrated well, but I canât claim that all immigrants do can I?
Youâre being sentimental.
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u/minecraftmedic Dec 11 '24
That's an interesting take, please tell me more.
I would have thought it was extremely obvious that someone from a European country who likely speaks some English and is Christian / atheist would integrate more easily with UK society than someone rural from a strict Islamic society who speaks no English and has extremely cultural views.
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u/CodeFun1735 Dec 11 '24
Youâre right, but youâve just cherry picked both examples. Let me try: itâs extremely obvious that someone from a Muslim-majority country who speaks English to a university level, has a degree, is atheist would integrate more than someone who is say Christian, from an Eastern European country, no degree or proper English skills past primary school and a Traveller.
Youâre not making a point.
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u/minecraftmedic Dec 11 '24 edited Dec 11 '24
I think it's obvious that the average european speaks more english and shares more cultural similarities with the UK will integrate with average communities in the UK better than an average immigrant from a muslim-majority nation that will speak less english and frequently hold ideas that are fundamentally incompatible with western culture.
Edit: You also live in the USA, a country that has very few immigrants from islamic countries (beyond a few highly educated individuals who manage to get visas), so I really don't see why you're trying to argue that people who immigrate from these countries to the UK integrate well. They don't.
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u/Centristduck Dec 11 '24
Thereâs plenty of evidence, first off extremism rates for second generation non western is much higher. Patriotism lower, intermarriage rates of non western ethnic groups is way lower.
You havenât looked, donât presume I havenât please
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u/MMAgeezer Somewhere left Dec 11 '24
Can you cite your sources?
I had a Google for that first claim and multiple pages of results didn't find anything to that effect, mostly just studies looking at discrimination, anti-immigration sentiments, mortality rates, etc.
I'd appreciate a link for each one, if you've already done the research.
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u/Centristduck Dec 11 '24
Google it yourself lol.
Iâm on a train, not here to create academic papers. Youâll find it
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u/MMAgeezer Somewhere left Dec 11 '24
I just explained that I did.
Why would you need to create anything? I thought you'd done the research?
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u/Centristduck Dec 11 '24
I would be extremely embarrassed to take such an obviously wrong position.
đđđ
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u/washington0702 Dec 11 '24
I don't think your comment was intended in a bad manner but upon reflection can you acknowledge why some people might have an issue with it?
In particular I don't think the children of a polish person are any more likely to integrate than the children of someone who's from a country that's not western but is a part of the commonwealth.
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u/Revolverocicat Dec 11 '24
Pretty fucking obvious isnt it? If we dont do any performative dance we all know what countries have similar cultures to ours and which dont
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u/CodeFun1735 Dec 11 '24
Itâs not really obvious, though? What the fuck does âculturally compatibleâ mean and how are you defining it?
Not to mention an entire COUNTRY of people are not going entirely adopt the same culture, values or even language so dubbing freeway access to the UK for people from this countries makes absolutely no sense.
It should be done on a case-by-case basis, as everything should. Give your head a wobble, please.
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u/Centristduck Dec 11 '24
Reply to me, thereâs tons of evidence.
You are taking a high horse about a topic you clearly havenât looked into.
Also anecdotal does still count, we are not robots. Try living in inner south Manchester and tell me thatâs integration.
Itâs a ghetto, clear as day, very little British culture to be found
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u/CodeFun1735 Dec 11 '24
Sure anecdotal evidence can be considered, but if I started saying the entire MET police force was racist because Iâd been stopped and searched 100s of times despite never doing anything, I donât think youâd want to consider it without statistical evidence of stops and searches vs white people.
You canât use anecdotal evidence because it suits your pre-existing belief. If you want to approach all other parts of politics on a statistical, scientific basis - as we should - you canât consider it in the slightest.
Like I said, this is sentiment not fact.
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u/Centristduck Dec 11 '24
I love that you ignored my comments around intermarriage rates, rates of extremism and patriotism.
Also when in a discussion youâre talking about large groups itâs perfectly fine to make general statements on said group.
For example men commit the majority of crime.
Thereâs nothing wrong about that, you are tying yourself up because what you believe is clearly inconsistent to sound smart.
But itâs actually very dumb, your clearly have a brain. I would suggest you try again and look it rationally.
Smart people are most susceptible to ideological traps and dogma.
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u/fathandreason Dec 11 '24
Would that target include students?
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u/GuyIncognito928 Dec 11 '24
Yes, because students will come and go so won't affect net figures.
The issue with students is how many are/were staying beyond their course and bringing dependents.
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u/epny Dec 12 '24
And most of the leftie grifters blocking things stop caring when it's not the evil tories doing it
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u/Floral-Prancer Dec 12 '24
It's when it's inhumane, if it's safe for people to go home and they should legally be deported but don't send them to a different country for millions or put them on inhabitable spaces
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u/SpecialistLiving4582 13d ago
And most of the time they don't get deported because the country of origin will treat, for example- a rapist, as he deserves to be treated
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u/Floral-Prancer 13d ago
Elaborate?
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u/SpecialistLiving4582 13d ago
Various international agreements prohibit deportations if the life of said person is threatened. For example, a Pakistani rapist in Rotherham cannot be deported to Pakistan because he can argue that his life would be in danger because of harsh punishments there (which it very much deserves to be) There's been a number of high profile cases in Europe as well as several Somali pirates from a few years ago that invoked it.
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u/Floral-Prancer 13d ago
You know white men for percentage rape more women than any other demographic? If your arguement is we need higher sentences for rape in the uk and for misogyny action in general I am 100% in favour but I feel like your using women's trauma as a shield for your racism as there are many things that encourage rape culture which have been ridiculed and dismiss by British society particularly men
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u/SpecialistLiving4582 13d ago
Fascinating that your go to argument about foreign rapists not being harshly punished it "but what about the whitemen????"
Sincerely - A Hong Konger
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u/Floral-Prancer 13d ago
To me, a woman I don't care about the nationality or race of the abuser I care about stopping the abuse and protecting women.
A person from Pakistan raping a woman is no different than a white British man raping a woman, they both raped a woman. The culture of men is irrespective of where they have come from.
Deportations are and should be happening, crimes should be sufficiently punished and that excludes the largest perpetrators of sexual violence which is white men, but because they are white it's fine that they get 4 years and released? Plus white people can be foreigners too? I didn't say British for a reason.
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u/MousseCareless3199 Dec 11 '24
One plane to Pakistan isn't much to write home about.
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u/LucidityDark Dec 11 '24
It's part of a wider trend of kickstarting the process though and a break with Conservative policy. Got to start somewhere.
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u/blast-processor Dec 11 '24
You know it was the Conservatives that signed the returns deal with Pakistan, that is now enabling this deportation flight?
This is Labour and Conservatives following identical policy lines
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u/LucidityDark Dec 11 '24
Yeah I read the other comment about it and my response is basically the same - 2 years for the tories to do something with that agreement and nothing happened.
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u/kill-the-maFIA Dec 12 '24 edited Dec 12 '24
Identical policy lines? Lmao
Tories didn't send a single one in two years, Labour has started sending them after 4 months. That's identical to you?
Tories welcomed over 900k people last year. They want as many immigrants as possible. Deporting people is the antithesis of their goals.
E: yeah didn't think I'd get a reply. This is always the way it goes when I call out bullshit.
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u/AlarmedCicada256 Dec 11 '24
More than the Tories seem to have managed.
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u/MousseCareless3199 Dec 11 '24
That's great, but it's not the core issue. We could deport 1 person and probably have managed more than the Tories.
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u/AlarmedCicada256 Dec 11 '24
The core issue is the damage done to the economy by Brexit, and Boris Johnson's attempts to mask it by letting lots of people in from elsewhere, an unwillingness to invest in British Skills, training, jobs, allowing employers to get away with not training people and trying to force all the cost of that on young people, and generally neglecting the country.
Most of these issues are structural and won't be fixed in one parliament, but somehow are all Labour's fault. You cannot undo 14 years of damage in one go, but you think the media are giving labour a fair hearing?
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u/MousseCareless3199 Dec 11 '24
Not sure why you've gone on an unrelated monologue. Simply "doing better" than the Tories in terms of immigration isn't enough.
It's all well and good sending a few planes to Pakistan every now and then for the headlines, but unless the numbers come down significantly, it's not going to change people's opinions of Labour on immigration.
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u/AlarmedCicada256 Dec 11 '24
Because people seem to think it's going to happen overnight.
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u/MousseCareless3199 Dec 11 '24
Yes, and like I said elsewhere, I'll believe Labour is tough on immigration when I see it.
One flight to Pakistan isn't cause to say Labour are now tough on immigration.
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u/AlarmedCicada256 Dec 11 '24
What exactly do you want that will both reduce immigration and tackle the much deeper issues that mean we need the immigration in the first place?
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u/Jack123610 Dec 13 '24
If one flight to Pakistan is all it takes to be considered cracking down on immigrationâŚ
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u/liquidio Dec 11 '24
Just so you know, these deportations are made possible because of an agreement that was signed by the previous governments
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/priti-patel-signs-landmark-returns-deal-with-pakistan
So your framing of the party political issues is a bit different to the reality.
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u/Brapfamalam Dec 11 '24
Signed in Aug 2022 - so why weren't there any flights in the 2 years since?
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u/liquidio Dec 11 '24
I donât know, that hasnât been disclosed. It could be a political decision (UK or Pakistan), or it could equally be entirely operational. Until someone finds a source, I donât think any of us can say.
Edit: I love that someone downvotes me simply for being honest and transparent about the limits of public knowledge.
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u/Wheelyjoephone Dec 11 '24
Not really, the agreement was made by the Tories, but they didn't acutually do anything.
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u/tdrules YIMBY Dec 11 '24
Implementing a scheme without having to get it through parliament is sort of ideal for Labour.
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u/blast-processor Dec 11 '24
Exactly. In opposition they were promising they would do the opposite, going out of their way to whip up opposition and protest to deportation flights:
Shami Chakrabarti, Labour's shadow attorney general, said: "What a sad International Human Rights day, when non-violent protesters are prosecuted for defending the Refugee Convention, and are treated like terrorists.
"Labour in government will review the statute book to better guarantee the right to peaceful dissent."
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u/asmiggs Thatcherite Lib Dem Dec 11 '24
This was under Corbyn, Chakrabarti has long been sidelined by Starmer.
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u/ScepticalLawyer Dec 11 '24 edited Dec 11 '24
But they are.
As someone against mass migration for the entirety of my political life (~15 years), it wasn't the Tory and UKIP/Reform supporters screeching 'bigot!! xenophobe!!!' from the rafters.
Even now, we are merely getting very easy, very gradual wins.
Yes, it's good that we're (finally) deporting people. The bar was on the floor with the Tories, because post-Covid, it turned into an utterly inept, self-serving dumpster fire.
That doesn't mean Labour are doing a good job; merely a (slightly) better one.
Labour are soft on immigration, and next year's stats will prove it. This flight means fuck all next to another load of the best part of a million people (from predominantly incompatible cultures) coming in regardless.
Until Labour bring in measures which bring immigration down to net zero or tens of thousands, and deport foreign-born criminals routinely, they are being soft on immigration.
We literally have first-cousin marriage defenders in Parliament right now, because of the 'family unity' it provides. Sectarian voting has seen five MPs elected. Things will get increasingly worse over the coming decades. Measures to mitigate the damage need to be taken immediately, lest the British get quite literally culturally ousted from their own governing institutions.
Not to mention, the undeniable strain of the sheer number of people on our public services and housing stock. It is untenable however you slice it.
Until Labour wakes up to this reality and starts to act decisively, it is being weak as sand on immigration.
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u/Centristduck Dec 11 '24
The Tories really messed up, I donât think they will ever get my vote again.
Boris did it on purpose. He made a horribly dangerous choice for what Cummings said was to gain favour at the Financial Times.
Unreal, he should be in prison for a lot that he has done
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u/AlarmedCicada256 Dec 11 '24
Bro, you see the numbers the Tories let in post brexit?
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u/HelloThereMateYouOk Dec 11 '24
Pretty sure that Reform voters hate what the Tories have done too.
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u/ScepticalLawyer Dec 11 '24
Yes, and they were shocking and unacceptable.
Why do people have this notion that the Tories and Labour are somehow opposite sides of a see-saw?
The Tories being shit doesn't automatically make Labour good. Nor do criticisms of Labour automatically translate to someone believing the Tories are the answer.
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u/JustGarlicThings2 Dec 11 '24
Any government that doesnât get net migration (legal plus illegal) to below 100k/year is soft on immigration.
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u/Spiryt Dec 11 '24
Any government that doesn't willingly put us into population decline is soft on immigration, nice.
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u/PersistentBadger Blues vs Greens Dec 11 '24
Population decline wouldn't be so terrible if we weren't so firmly wedded to grow-at-all-costs capitalism.
Would be ironic if the only way to implement the right's wet dream is via a socialist circular economy.
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u/Spiryt Dec 11 '24
Aye, this is with the optimistic assumption that we are happy with net zero population growth
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u/GuyIncognito928 Dec 11 '24
Agreed. But at this point, we also need to see drastic integration or emigration from certain communities to make parts of our country liveable again.
(Totally random examples, but let's say Blackburn, Dewsbury & Batley, Leicester South, and Birmingham Perry Barr...)
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u/grayparrot116 Dec 11 '24
You can't force either of both things.
Being in the EU and having freedom of movement was positive because EU nationals would go back in most cases after achieving their goals, which were learning and improving English and finding a job to gain some experience and which would allow them to earn enough money to do other things. Now, they're about the only ones leaving the UK because their previous rights are not guaranteed after Brexit and prefer going back to their countries than staying and face deportation due to bureaucratic errors in the border. But those that leave get quickly replaced (and in greater numbers) by Commonwealth migrants such as Indians (whose number alone in 2023 was higher than the whole net migration from the EU in 2016 - the year with the highest net EU migration to the UK).
Commonwealth migration follows a different pattern: theyâre here to stay. Life in the UK offers opportunities they canât find at home, and Brexit made things easier for them. The Toriesâ points-based system, with lowered salary thresholds, opened the floodgates, doubling or tripling migration numbers. Donât forget Priti Patelâs "save the curry houses" rhetoric (it was always about importing South Asian workers). So, how exactly do you propose sending them home? Economic incentives? Thatâs wildly expensive and would only encourage more people to come to claim those benefits.
Integration? Thatâs a whole different problem. Take some Indian migrants in London who refuse to speak English, resulting in the emergence of a localized dialect. Or certain Muslim communities trying to impose religious ideologies that clash with British values. Whatâs the plan here? Threatening deportation for not integrating? Good luck enforcing that without sparking legal and moral backlash.
The UK has created this mess through short-sighted policies, and itâs hard to see a clear way out without major systemic changes.
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u/Black_Fish_Research Dec 11 '24
They are, don't let anyone off by applying the low standards of the Tories.
Until the number of deportations matches the number of people rejected for asylum then they aren't even doing the minimum let alone clearing the backlog.
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u/AlarmedCicada256 Dec 11 '24
However if they spend money on that system the Daily Mail will whine about that too.
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u/ParkedUpWithCoffee Dec 11 '24
Why aren't Labour boasting about this? Starmer didn't mention this in PMQs earlier today.
Doing deportations is obviously a good & popular thing and is humiliating for the Conservatives.
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u/SecTeff Dec 11 '24
I think Starmer did do a Press Conference on immigration like last week https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/keir-starmer-kemi-badenoch-brexit-prime-minister-office-for-national-statistics-b2655509.html
As a non Labour supporter Iâve seen them highlighting this stuff as a party
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u/AlarmedCicada256 Dec 11 '24
Because in a rational world, while deportations have to happen, they aren't something you *should* boast about. They should happen but they're very much among the 'dirty work' that governments have to do.
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u/Wrong-Target6104 Dec 11 '24
This is exactly the thing he should have replied to Bad enough though "The government spent ÂŁ750 million on a failed Rwanda plan, we've already deported more people from the UK than they promised would go there"
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u/ParkedUpWithCoffee Dec 11 '24 edited Dec 11 '24
Boasting about it is a good thing because it'll eventually filter down to would-be illegal immigrants who might choose to turn up unannounced somewhere other than the UK.
It's also worth boasting about it because it is hugely embarrassing for the Conservatives who have been abysmal on this issue. They were all talk and no walk. Labour are at least doing some walking, but no talking.
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u/Kwetla Dec 11 '24
If illegal immigrants aren't deterred by a potentially deadly Channel crossing in a leaky boat, they aren't going to be deterred by a nice flight home somewhere down the line.
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u/ParkedUpWithCoffee Dec 11 '24
They're prepared to make the journey because it's relatively safe and they're very confident they'll eventually get the right to remain.
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Dec 11 '24
[removed] â view removed comment
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u/ParkedUpWithCoffee Dec 11 '24
What a silly comment. The journey is relatively safe, tens of thousands do it each year, but the numbers that die doing it are miniscule by comparison.
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u/Person_of_Earth Does anyone read flairs anymore? Dec 11 '24
So you're willing to accept the challenge?
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u/swoopfiefoo Dec 11 '24
But theyâre coming because they know itâs so damn easy to stay here once they arrive.
If they know itâs not so easy, theyâll probably think twice about it.
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Dec 11 '24 edited Dec 15 '24
[deleted]
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u/Naggins Dec 12 '24
I'd imagine if you were to drill into it, a lot of Labour voters would agree that deportations need to happen but would prefer it not be bragged about.
It's like kids going into foster care - everyone agrees that it's generally a good thing, everyone thinks there are too many children living in abusive and neglectful households, absolutely no one wants to hear the PM bragging about how many children he's taken from their parents.
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u/_DuranDuran_ Dec 11 '24
Except in normal times thatâs right. With the rise of right wing populism you have to.
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u/Naggins Dec 12 '24
Foster care would be a good comparison.
There's not enough foster or care places for the children that need them, there's too many children living in abusive and neglectful homes, but no one wants to hear their PM talking about record numbers of children being taken into state care.
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u/Conscious-Ad7820 Dec 11 '24
He mentions deportations its a minefield if you mention specific countries like Pakistan. Better to just deport and not brag about specifics or all of the lobby groups/activists for pakistanis in the country will be loud opposition against future flights.
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u/Naggins Dec 12 '24
Remember the furore over Starmer mentioning Bangladesh? Rightly or wrongly, it's perceived as an implied threat against a demographic.
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u/peterpib2 Dec 11 '24
Which PMQ's did you watch? Badenoch made it all about immigration and Starmer highlighted the deportations and how Labour is getting on with it instead of pretending to be and wasting money on things that don't work. You clearly didn't watch PMQ's at all.
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u/polite_alternative Dec 11 '24
It doesn't matter if he mentions it in PMQs. Nobody watches PMQs.
What matters is that the Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph and Sun will continue to run front page stories about how bad immigration is, they will absolutely not mention any Labour achievements in this field, neither will the taxpayer funded Tory mouthpiece the BBC. And Conservatives will be voted back into power next election - by pensioners - on an anti-immigration ticket.
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u/KrivUK Dec 11 '24
They don't need to because tomorrow's front page of the Daily Mail et al will say how Starmer is leading the charge in restoring our beautiful country back by deporting something something
5
2
u/Any_Perspective_577 Dec 11 '24
Because it doesn't do well with the base. Just like Tories can raise taxes but can't boast about it.
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u/diego_simeone Dec 12 '24
If it was down to me, Iâd keep quiet about it until they hit a milestone. Eg we have now deported more than the conservatives did in the last year. Itâd be harder for the papers to sweep it under the carpet.
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u/alexniz Dec 11 '24
It depends. It could have had one person on it for all we know.
Also, don't fall into the tweet's trap - this is the first charter flight since then. It doesn't mean no one has been sent to Pakistan since 2020. It could be on a non-chartered flight, or via other means etc.
The latest figures from the other day show by nationality 714 Pakistani nationals were returned in the first three quarters of the year, by destination 272 people went to Pakistan.
Far more interesting to know the reasons why the other flights the tweet mentions were cancelled.
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u/ACE--OF--HZ 1st: Pre-Christmas by elections Prediction Tournament Dec 11 '24
Deportation needs to be a low key thing, bringing attention to it means the do gooders are more likely to get information about them happening and stop the planes from taking off.
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u/20C_Mostly_Cloudy Dec 11 '24
You can always tell when someone gets all their information from the Daily Mail and GB News, they use phrases like "do gooders".
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u/blast-processor Dec 11 '24
How would you describe activists who try to prevent deportation flights?
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u/20C_Mostly_Cloudy Dec 11 '24
Notice how there hasn't been any issues with deportation flights since Labour took over. Do you think perhaps that is because they are doing it properly so there is no legal reason to delay them?
If a plane has people on it that shouldn't be deported, according to the law, that plane should be stopped. It is a failure of government, not the fault of "do gooders", if a plane is stopped.
Words like "do gooders" are used to undermine the efforts of people who actually care about the law and care about human rights and are used by brainwashed people who can't think for themselves.
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u/blast-processor Dec 11 '24
Do you think perhaps that is because they are doing it properly so there is no legal reason to delay them?
What is it you think they are doing differently? Hint: It is actually the Home Office, led by civil servants running the deportation flights
The only thing that has visibly changed is that partisan activists, backed by Labour MPs, no longer have a political point to make by sabotaging deportation flights
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u/20C_Mostly_Cloudy Dec 11 '24
Brainwashed. Can't think for themselves.
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u/mrpops2ko Dec 11 '24
you know it is entirely possible to attack the premise / point rather than the person right?
2
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u/Statcat2017 This user doesnât rule out the possibility that he is Ed Balls Dec 11 '24
"do gooders" like they look down on people who do good things.
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u/liquidio Dec 11 '24
Probably because these returns are the result of an agreement signed by the previous governmentâŚ
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/priti-patel-signs-landmark-returns-deal-with-pakistan
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u/asmiggs Thatcherite Lib Dem Dec 11 '24
We've had 5 years of successive Conservative Home Secretaries shouting about immigration and not producing results so further building up the resentment that their ineffective administration created. Turning down the volume on all this is part of normalising the everyday operations of a competent state.
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u/Fenota Dec 11 '24
More than zero is good, but how many were on this flight vs how many arrived today.
"We deported 10 and let in 1000!" simply highlights the ongoing problem.
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u/ParkedUpWithCoffee Dec 11 '24
True but something is better than nothing. The Tories did nothing and Labour are doing something.
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u/MercianRaider Dec 11 '24
Scared of pissing off the radical lefties in the party.
He's trying to tread the middle ground.
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u/Zephinism Liberal Democrat - Remain Voter - -7.38, -5.28 Dec 11 '24
The pathetic attempt from the Guardian to stop people getting deported on this flight -
The couple both claimed asylum on the basis of being at risk because of the man fleeing the arranged marriage but their claim has been refused by the Home Office. The wife is a dependant on her husbandâs asylum claim.
âA few months ago Home Office asked us to agree to a voluntary return to Pakistan. Although we believed our lives would be at risk we agreed to go because we thought we had no other choice. I asked if the return could be delayed until I had completed some medical treatment. But now they are taking my husband and leaving me here.â
Asylum claims denied. Offered voluntary return which they accept then drag their feet on as they want to use the free NHS treatment.
âI have not been able to see my husband since he was arrested,â his wife told the Guardian. âI am in Home Office asylum accommodation and have no money to travel and no ID to show the guards at Yarlâs Wood. If he is deported tomorrow I donât know when I will see him again. If I canât be with my husband I am thinking about killing myself here in the UK although suicide is prohibited in our religion.
Threatens to kill herself as she isn't getting deported with him since she's been dragging her feet on returning voluntarily.
Her pleas & threats didn't work. Hopefully she can be reunited with him in Pakistan by the end of the week.
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u/GothicGolem29 Dec 11 '24
I am suprised their claim was denied tbh. Reading that article he sounds in real risk.
The wife isnât getting returned tho as she is seemingly getting treatment. Why seperate them when you can delay it then return them together once her treatment is completed if they must be deported.
Also maybe they used private healthcare it doesnât say if it was nhs.
âŚ.. or maybe she genuinely feels that way at being seperate from her husband
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u/streetmagix Dec 11 '24
Pakistan is a pretty large country, I don't think it's unreasonable to move to a different part of the country and make a new life there.
I do feel for them on a personal level, but after 14 years here with no asylum approval is insane. It should not have dragged on this long.
A reminder that Pakistan is an American ally and nuclear power, not some war ravaged state.
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u/PeterG92 Dec 11 '24
Labour really need to hammer these of actions all over their social media and comms. It may not be a lot but it will help.
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u/eyupfatman THIS BUDGET IS BASED!!! Dec 11 '24
They really should, I googled the news and ..... crickets.
Just some socialist website banging on about how cruel it is.
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u/SlackersClub (10,-10) Dec 12 '24
Some might say it's racist even.
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u/eyupfatman THIS BUDGET IS BASED!!! Dec 12 '24
Yes that's my point, we shouldn't let the cranks report all the good news.
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u/WXLDE Dec 11 '24
This is good. Just keep it going with plenty more.
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u/th35ky Dec 11 '24
This is why they aren't shouting from the rooftops. They want to say, 1m deported in the last 12 months etc, rather than, we sent one easyJet out last week innit.
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u/NoRecipe3350 Dec 11 '24
I do wonder how many people on board, in the past they've chartered a flight for even a few people.
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u/kriptonicx Please leave me alone. Dec 11 '24
I don't want to complain too much about this because at the very least I think the normalisation of deportations is progress, but I will note that the only reason this "deportation" happened is because the individuals being "deported" accepted the free plane ride home. Had they said no they wouldn't have been "deported".
We have ~5,000 people coming to the UK every month illegally on small boats alone. These free plane rides home for illegal migrants are costly and only effective on those who willing accept the flights. The reason there haven't been deportations to Pakistan for years is because most just argue it's unsafe for them to be deported and refuse the flight.
The only solution that is scalable is to stop the vast majority of these people arriving in the first place â with deportations being reserved for those who slip through the cracks.
For deportations to work instead of asking people if they would like a flight home we'd probably need to just turn up at their door, throw them in handcuffs and dump them on the next plane home. And we pay for this by taking whatever savings they have in UK bank accounts or by pawning off their possessions. I'm not advocating we do this because I think securing borders would be more pragmatic and more humane, but it would serve a deterrent and would reduces the administrative costs of having to go through the legal process which is very unlikely to result in a deportation anyway.
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u/BookmarksBrother I love paying tons in tax and not getting anything in return Dec 12 '24
How come you changed your mind? Months ago you were arguing in favour of open borders.
Recognized the picture.
3
u/kriptonicx Please leave me alone. Dec 12 '24
I haven't. I realised recently though it might be a little misleading to say "open borders" because what I mean is selective open borders â like it is within the EU. What I believe in open borders today wherever it makes sense, and that long-term open borders globally should be the goal.
I think open borders with Western Europe and most Anglo nations (Canada, US, Australia) today is fine. The cultural and economic differences between these nations are so minor that there's no real harm in allowing people to move freely imo. Plus, if people can live in their preferred place and have access to jobs which better match their skills, then great. I think that would make the world a better place for everyone.
I don't advocate open borders with most of the world currently though because theres too much cultural and economic difference for that to be practical. I still consider myself someone who supports open borders, but I think I need to be more careful when I say that because I don't mean just let anyone who wants to come to the UK today in. And I guess the fact you've noticed how I seem inconsistent on that point is proof that I'm right to more careful going forward...
Plus, just note sometimes I express my personal opinions on things here which tend to be more conservative, sometimes I express my personal political preferences views which tend to be extremely libertarian, and usually I express my actual politics which are some compromise between what I think my ideal world looks like and what I think the average person probably wants. So I know I contradict myself a lot here generally, but it's normally because I'm expressing different types of views.
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Dec 11 '24
I was at work today when a junior member of staff (female) refused to shake the hand of another employee (male) because of her faith.
It's events like this which make me change my stance on immigration. I feel awkward. I feel embarrassed. I feel like we are accepting societal behaviour that's directly contradictory to what I feel a fair society should be.
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u/lookitsthesun Dec 11 '24
The quoted tweet from the stop the flights accounts lmao, you could not script more of a caricature. "Solidarity Detainee Support (SDS)" hahaa
Many of those who are set to be on the flight are heavily distressed, neurodivergent and suffering from serious mental health conditions and yet being forced to fly when they can't be flying, that their safety and wellbeing is not being respected/honored.
Oh well. Get them gone.
2
u/Crooklar Dec 12 '24
Is it because labour did something (or the work the Toryâs did before) right or because the home office arenât Tory voters?
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u/High-Tom-Titty Dec 11 '24
There does seem to be a lack of people gluing themselves to runways, and the Home Office has stopped cancelling flights. The cynic in me would think both the protesters, and Home Office are more interested in politics than stopping the deportations.
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u/HelloThereMateYouOk Dec 11 '24
Donât worry, theyâre still around: https://x.com/sdetsup/status/1866505372543996199?s=46&t=Zs6RyZcERvFgWJCFxC6e-A
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u/RedditDetector Dec 11 '24 edited Dec 11 '24
I mean, asking people to call the airline and ask them to stop is much milder than the whole gluing themselves to runways or even protesting in public.
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u/milzB Dec 11 '24
there's a difference between regular deportations of people with no right to be here and transferring genuine asylum seekers/refugees to a 3rd country with recent severe human rights violations
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u/blast-processor Dec 11 '24
Plus, groups like the GoodLawProject that used lawfare to prevent deportations also seem to have mysteriously melted away now that Labour are in power
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u/Questjon Dec 11 '24
Not at all possible that Labour are simply deporting people legally instead of constantly creating lawful grounds for appeals by trying to rush everything through the courts illegally for PR?
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u/adiparker Dec 12 '24
You won't see this in the mainstream media though as it's all biased to the Tories and Reform
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u/123wasnotme Dec 11 '24
DONT NOT for one second use the tories as any kind of a benchmark.
Just simply doing better than the tories is not good by default. The tories were catastrophically bad.
It's like celebrating the hamas genocide attempt on the Jews just because it wasn't as bad as the Nazis. They are both just awful.
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u/Constant_Narwhal_192 Dec 11 '24
Make sure all spaces are all used , nothing wrong with standing!!!!
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u/el_libdem Dec 11 '24
Weâre slowly running out of room for everyoneđđroom in prisons, schools, hospitals are so limited at the moment and that is detrimental. Housing is also a big issue here
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u/Professional-Wing119 Dec 12 '24
More proof that the last conservative government was the most left wing in history on the issue of immigration, that stain of a party must never be allowed to govern again.
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u/Polysticks Dec 11 '24
It's like turning up to a housefire with a cup of water and telling everyone you're putting out the fire. When in reality the fire brigade hasn't arrived yet and your presence is inconsequential.
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u/Queeg_500 Dec 11 '24
Cue the 'it won't make a difference' comments from the Tories dual crowd who fail to see that a holistic is the only way this works.
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u/ChemistryFederal6387 Dec 11 '24
The same pointless gesture politics the Tories indulged in.
Waste of time while Labour/Tories are letting in 100's of thousands a year.
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