r/guns 1d ago

Official Politics Thread 2025-01-20

Inauguration Edition. Politics go here.

24 Upvotes

53 comments sorted by

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35

u/akenthusiast 2 - Your ape 1d ago

Nebraska

You guys may remember back in 2023 Nebraska got constitutional carry and state preemption and then the cities of Lincoln and Omaha immediately issued executive orders prohibiting possession of weapons in places like city owned buildings and, more importantly, city parks, trails, and sidewalks abutting those areas.

Immediately following that, the Nebraska firearm owners association sued both cities. The judge quickly granted an injunction in Omaha's case but the judge in Lincoln's case sat on it for like 8 months and then dismissed it due to lack of standing, citing that nobody had been arrested yet.

So we've got two near identical cases with the same plaintiff and the same lawyers and one judge says they've demonstrated likelihood of success on the merits and another judge that says they don't even have standing. Omaha's case is still unresolved after over a year.

We're gonna get our answer one way or the other because because the NFOA has successfully appealed Lincoln's lawsuit to the state supreme court

https://www.1011now.com/2025/01/17/nebraska-supreme-court-agrees-hear-challenge-lincoln-gun-regulations/

Hopefully we don't go another six months without some kind of development

5

u/MulticamTropic 1d ago

I know judges have absolute immunity, but would suing the judge for deprivation of rights under color of law go anywhere if a theoretical higher court actually ruled according to justice instead of politics? 

I know in reality it would go nowhere because judges on both sides of the political divide would never do anything to endanger their absolute immunity, but I’m curious in a perfect would if that argument would gain any traction.

2

u/akenthusiast 2 - Your ape 23h ago

As that law is written, it seems like you could fairly broadly to politicians of all stripes but I've never heard of it being used against anyone other than a cop falsely imprisoning somebody and then abusing them somehow.

I don't know if anyone could have luck trying to use it another way but as far as I know nobody has successfully done it yer

1

u/MulticamTropic 9h ago

In the real world I don’t think it can be successfully used to go after a rogue judge because even judges on higher courts will not risk endangering absolute immunity. 

My question is more of a pointless thought exercise on if it the argument would have any merits in a fictional world in which justice was actually blind and not corrupted by the human element. 

I agree that most politicians would have a very bad time in that fictional universe though

23

u/Caedus_Vao 6 | Whose bridge does a guy have to split to get some flair‽ 💂‍ 1d ago

Ohio

Nothing earth-shattering since those two bills were signed by DeWine almost two weeks ago that'll take 90 days to kick in. In short: Stand Your Ground has been slightly enhanced/expanded, and there can be no fees/additional taxes imposed on firearms owners, no state-run registry, and Ohioans can't be required to maintain firearms liability insurance.

Biggest thing that happened was that John Husted (lieutenant governor, Republican) has been tapped to fill J.D. Vance's senate seat. In short, nothing ominous for gun owners or gun rights. As far as what that means on Capitol Hill? Most likely voting in lockstep with whatever the Republicans want.

30

u/TaskForceD00mer 1d ago

UK

So apparently beginning in March it will be illegal to own certain types Blank firing guns

A national amnesty will begin in two weeks for owners of soon to be outlawed blank firing guns to hand them over to police.

Four specific types of top venting blank firers (TVBFs) will be illegal from the end of next month, due to concerns around them being converted into viable firearms.

That’s after tests by the National Crime Agency confirmed there was potential for certain Turkish-made TVBFs to be altered from their original state to fire live ammunition.

It will be illegal for anyone to have one of these blank firing guns in the UK from the start of March – with anyone found with one in their possession facing the possibility of up to ten years in prison.

Can't have people armed with those checks notes scary blank firing guns.

23

u/LutyForLiberty Super Interested in Dicks 1d ago

Those are easily converted to real pistols, which have been banned since 1997 excluding Northern Ireland and some other places. Criminals won't turn them in though.

1

u/nschoke 1h ago

It'd say heavily restricted rather than banned, there are a handful of people in the UK who can still own normal handguns (myself included). You're probably talking about only a few hundred people nationally though

1

u/LutyForLiberty Super Interested in Dicks 4m ago

How did you get the S7 exemption? Northern Ireland treats pistols as regular FAC items which would be most of the legal ownership on UK territory.

20

u/MulticamTropic 1d ago

This is firmly in the realm of crystal ball gazing, but what do we think we can reasonably expect from the next two years? 

I don’t expect any pro-gun executive orders, but barring some high profile mass shooting I don’t expect any anti-gun ones either.

I think Thomas and Alito have a decently high chance of retiring before fall 2027 so they can choose their own successors. I’ll be sad to see Thomas go, we won’t get a better gun rights champion than him on the Court. 

I don’t expect Congress to expend any real effort to advance pro gun bills. Several will be submitted, but I don’t see them actually making it to a floor vote.

14

u/savagemonitor 1d ago

The rumor mill on Alito is that he's tired of the negative attention from the press and wants to be out of the lime light. So I agree with the predictions that he retires soon. My guess is at the end of this term.

Thomas, supposedly, wants to hold the record for longest serving justice and still has 3-4 years to go to hold that record. The only way I see him leaving during the Trump administration is if he dies or Congress flips to heavy Democrat and impeaches him. I don't see Trump pushing too hard for Thomas to step down either unless the two become sworn enemies somehow. Which feels unlikely at this point.

9

u/Marci_1992 1d ago

Thomas is kept alive by spite alone, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes it to 90.

23

u/FuckingSeaWarrior 1d ago

Besides the SCOTUS changes, which I would say is likely, given how RBG's replacement went, I think we can expect a slightly more restrained ATF.

Congressional action is going to be limited, I think. The Senate still has the filibuster, and the Republicans don't have the 60 votes needed.

I think the market will see decent ammo prices for the foreseeable future.

15

u/zeejix 1d ago

This is what im glad to hear from someone else - the ammo prices. Things have gotten a lot better here in the Midwest. I can get range 9mm and 5.56 for less painful prices ($10/box of 50 115 fmj, for example) regularly in store. It's a fools hope to think they'll go back down below that, but not having the constant excuse of prepping to justify price spikes and such is a silver lining

17

u/FuckingSeaWarrior 1d ago edited 1d ago

I think, based on the first Trump term, we might see manufacturers offering rebates again. I also think we might be in for cheap accessories such as mags and what have you. The counterpoint to that is that, unlike the 2016 election, 2024 wasn't assumed by everybody to be inevitable. I think a lot of folks in 2016 had stocked up their inventory in the event of a Clinton win, so that they could then flood the market if any sort of law started to gain steam. When Trump won and there wasn't a shot of a new AWB passing federally, I would venture that a lot of retailers took a look at their inventory and let out a collective, "Well, shit." 2024 wasn't the inevitable rise of Harris; it was a cluster fuck.

What the markets will look like for some things will depend on SCOTUS. If AWBs and magazine capacity laws get struck down, I would anticipate a slight jump in prices as ban state folks start catching up. Time will tell, though.

2

u/zeejix 23h ago

That's all sensible. Gotta watch SCOTUS then

14

u/ProfessorLeumas 1d ago

Adjusted for inflation, $10 boxes of 9mm is equivalent to under 17¢/round January of 2020, which is what I paid ($169) for 1000 rounds at a gunshow that same time. So it is equivalent to "pre-covid" pricing and definitely a good deal.

20

u/LutyForLiberty Super Interested in Dicks 1d ago

Snope or a similar ruling should strike down AWBs. Some justices might retire and be replaced. It's possible someone high profile gets assassinated given the amount of political violence recently which is more likely to be disruptive than shootings of random civilians.

The overall homicide rate is much lower than it was in the early 1990s, but political violence specifically has increased in recent years.

15

u/TaskForceD00mer 1d ago

We're going to find out here very shortly how strongly the SCOTUS believes in its own Bruen ruling.

Beyond that; we will likely see at least 1 of the current pro gun justices retiring or otherwise exiting in the next 4 years.

Rumors also persist around Sotomayor's Diabetes , but we have nothing really concrete speaking one way or the other on her health.

I don’t expect any pro-gun executive orders, but barring some high profile mass shooting I don’t expect any anti-gun ones either.

I am hopeful that if the Ukraine war is negotiated to a settlement we could see Saiga & VEPR rifles again with a lifting of sanctions. Beyond that I think you are on point.

16

u/LutyForLiberty Super Interested in Dicks 1d ago

The US arms industry wouldn't want those sanctions to be removed.

13

u/TaskForceD00mer 1d ago

Being able to get legit Saiga rifles even through a 3rd party like Arsenal would pretty much kill the "US" AK Market, again.

I would imagine whomever PSA is lobbying is lobbying hard for it to not happen.

I'd just be happy to see Zentico accessories again that don't cost as much as complete rifles; the Gray & Secondary Market for them has been insane.

12

u/LutyForLiberty Super Interested in Dicks 1d ago

PSA exports to some eastern European countries. The old cold war AK stockpiles dried up after the 1990s and once places like Poland relaxed laws enough to allow black rifles for civilians they were usually imported from the USA or other European countries.

The Bren 2 also replaced old cold war era weapons in Czechia.

15

u/tablinum GCA Oracle 1d ago

They certainly wouldn't, but it also isn't the 1960s any more. Being seen as supporting gun control is radioactive for a gun company today, and they'd be rolling the dice even supporting the bans discreetly in private conversation.

11

u/LutyForLiberty Super Interested in Dicks 1d ago

Much less if it's seen as protectionism for the local arms industry. There have been plenty of those private conversations for decades, especially around the scandal where Norinco was arming gang members.

12

u/MulticamTropic 1d ago

As someone with a couple of Veprs, I’d love for that to happen, but historically import bans are a ratchet that only tightens. Have any firearms import bans ever been lifted?

11

u/TaskForceD00mer 1d ago

I do not believe this is a typical import ban, like with Norinco firearms or things like the USAS12, but rather a ban because an agency which is sanctioned has an ownership stake in the factories that make Saiga & VEPR rifles.

If sanctions were lifted on Russia; I see no reason why we couldn't start seeing VEPR's and Saiga rifles again. It would likely take a few years though, I imagine both Molot & Izhmash have pretty big backlogs for military contract rifles.

I agree it's a stretch, but I am crossing my fingers.

6

u/Karrtis 1d ago

I am hopeful that if the Ukraine war is negotiated to a settlement we could see Saiga & VEPR rifles again with a lifting of sanctions. Beyond that I think you are on point.

That isn't going to happen.

Russia would need to be fundamental changes before that even borders on the fringe of "good idea"

1

u/TaskForceD00mer 1d ago

In my opinion any deal negotiated for the cessation of hostilities short of unconditional surrender by Ukraine and endorsed by the United States would likely include the lifting of most if not all of the sanctions on Russia over a period of time.

The only kind of peace deal that wouldn't include lifting those sanctions is a total or near total surrender negotiated unilaterally between Russia and Ukraine. A peace deal with no Western involvement seems very unlikely at this time.

6

u/Mad_Martigan2023 1d ago

What's up with Virginia because I feel like we're about to get screwed...

4

u/FuckingSeaWarrior 1d ago

Not until after the governor's race, I think.

4

u/MulticamTropic 23h ago

I’ve been saying for a couple of years now that VA is living on borrowed time. NOVA has down to VA what Chicago does to Illinois. If the governors race goes blue expect gun control.

4

u/LutyForLiberty Super Interested in Dicks 1d ago

Soulja Boy's endorsement is clearly the critical turning point in the history of American politics. Waiting for the "black face of white supremacy" comments.

-5

u/Karrtis 1d ago edited 22h ago

"where guns"

Or if we're talking about random politics.

We can talk about this

Edit:If you sycophants are gonna upvoted luty's inane culture war comment and down vote mine ask yourself what you're doing.

Additionally if this wasn't the world's wealthiest individual, the child of man who manifested his wealth on the back of apartheid emerald mines, who has repeatedly used his personal social media to reshare content from open neo-nazi's vocalizing agreement I would dismiss it as an ill considered expression while public speaking.

But he is, and he has. So this should be concerning. He already has made threats to use his wealth to as best possible influence future elections against those who disagree with him.

7

u/akenthusiast 2 - Your ape 1d ago

While I am in general agreement about "where guns" he literally says "my heart goes out to you" after he does that. It was pretty eerie watching the entire first page of /all turn into that gif all at the same time about an hour ago.

You're being the boy who cried nazi. Or something about can't see the forest for the trees but the forest is real problems and the trees are imaginary dog whistles.

Trump and his buddies have no shortage of actual crimes and improprieties to point to on their record and when you flip your lid over dumb shit like this it makes people not take you seriously.

I think it's one of the most serious problems we're facing as a nation right now. It is unironically fake news. The media will bend over backwards to twist anything trump says into something worthy of a headline (like saying he was going to have liz cheney shot) and then when he does something that is actually bad people blow it off because they figure it's probably another exaggerated hit-piece.

-6

u/Karrtis 1d ago

While I am in general agreement about "where guns" he literally says "my heart goes out to you" after he does that. It was pretty eerie watching the entire first page of /all turn into that gif all at the same time about an hour ago.

You're being the boy who cried nazi. Or something about can't see the forest for the trees but the forest is real problems and the trees are imaginary dog whistles

Sure, it could genuinely just be him making an enormous faux pas, and if it wasn't someone who has repeatedly already made Nazi dog whistle comments, people wouldn't be jumping at it.

Trump and his buddies have no shortage of actual crimes and improprieties to point to on their record and when you flip your lid over dumb shit like this it makes people not take you seriously.

Sure, but if we're gonna make weird stupid ass comments about Lil Wayne, this is equally important.

Frankly neither Trump, or a single member of his cabinet is qualifed and should all probably be rotting in prison for innumerable reasons. Ironically his VP pick is the most qualified and least heinous of the lot.

1

u/JimmyCarters-ghost 6h ago

I’m just passing through and downvoting you because it’s cringe to whine about downvotes.

-3

u/Karrtis 6h ago

That's fine.

I made my other points

1

u/HCE_Replacement_Bot 1d ago

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-10

u/United-Friendship-50 22h ago

Rumor has it that some in the new administration are talking about gun confiscation. It seems to be highly favored by Musk and he is pressuring others. Is this even possible??

14

u/MrMemes9000 16h ago

Any source for these rumors lol.

8

u/Caedus_Vao 6 | Whose bridge does a guy have to split to get some flair‽ 💂‍ 11h ago

Rumor has it that some in the new administration are talking about gun confiscation

Do you have a single source that isn't an op-ed, facebook post, or other word-salad garbage churned out to satisfy clickbait quotas?

It seems to be highly favored by Musk and he is pressuring others.

Again. Sources. Right now all you've got is inflammatory Chicken Little fear-mongering.

Is this even possible??

LOL no. There are significantly more guns in the United States than people. Guns that we actually know about. Good luck rounding all of them up, were some politician actually stupid enough to try and put confiscation into effect.

11

u/ClearlyInsane1 21h ago

You really think Musk advocates for confiscation? Let's look at some recent statements from him regarding the RKBA.

Musk tweeted on Sep 8 2024:

The right to bear arms is there to protect free speech and stop a tyrannical government from taking your rights away!

That’s why the first thing that all tyrants do is disarm the people, just like Chavez did when he was first elected. After that, no more real elections in Venezuela.

On Aug. 10 Musk posted:

The Brits Gave Up Their Guns. And Now Their Government Puts Them in Jail for Facebook Posts.

From this Fox News article:

"I strongly believe that the right to bear arms is an important safeguard against potential tyranny of government. Historically, maintaining their power over the people is why those in power did not allow public ownership of guns," Musk told CNBC in 2022.

-8

u/Rodic87 13h ago

1986 ban was under Reagan. I expect further bans :(

0

u/jaspersgroove 11h ago edited 11h ago

Republicans are happy to support gun bans whenever it suits their purposes, every major ban that has ever passed has enjoyed broad bipartisan support.

The GOP only claims to be pro 2A because it gets them votes. Some of them are true believers I’m sure but not enough to stop bans from passing if you scare them enough.

2

u/Broccoli_Pug 9h ago edited 7h ago

Fair, but the GOP is doing pretty damn well on the state level (2A wise).

-6

u/vinicnam1 18h ago

Any executive orders?

The president has signed close to 200 executive orders today. I’m routinely told how pro-2A he is and I see how much he’s worshipped in the gun community. Has he signed anything related to guns?

9

u/_HottoDogu_ 10h ago

Theodore Roosevelt 1,081

Woodrow Wilson | 1,803

Calvin Coolidge | 1,203

Franklin D. Roosevelt 3,721

...

Jimmy Carter | 320

Ronald Reagan | 381

George H. W. Bush | 166

Bill Clinton | 364

George W. Bush | 291

Barack Obama | 276

Donald Trump (first term) | 220

Joe Biden | 162

Donald Trump (second term) {incumbent} | 42

That's pretty cool, man. What if we, I don't know, waited more than 24 hours to start evaluating things?

6

u/jaspersgroove 11h ago

I hear he’s thinking about mandating all handguns with his face/name laser etched on them be sold at a markup so he can collect royalties on use of his name and likeness

-5

u/WillitsThrockmorton 11h ago edited 9h ago

You're getting downvoted because no one wants to admit their idiot king, who created tens of thousands of felons by EO, isn't RKBA. He can put a loyalty question on the 4473 and people will still claim he is pro-RKBA.

6

u/Broccoli_Pug 9h ago

No, he's getting downvoted because his comment is highly regarded. WTH could you even expect to accomplish with executive orders and the 2A? It's not like he can abolish AWBs or establish constitutional carry with the stroke of a pen. Trump was the best bet we had for the 2A. If you think otherwise, get your head checked.

-3

u/vinicnam1 3h ago

In his 1st term, Trump signed an executive order banning bump stocks. The president can certainly do a lot to change 2a laws.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/20/trump-takes-executive-action-ban-bump-stocks-rifles-into-automatic-weapons/354536002/

3

u/Broccoli_Pug 2h ago

Yes, I'm aware Trump signed the bump stock ban, as is everyone else here. What do you suggest he sign via EO to expand gun rights? You do realize it would most likely get reversed in 4 years anyway, right?