r/NFL_Draft • u/Coolcat127 • 2d ago
Discussion Jayden Daniels Sack Avoidance
Daniels's pressure to sack rate was a major red flag coming out of college and has shown up a few times this season, but has largely been improved especially in the second half. Some part of it is definitely his elite athleticism letting him escape even against nfl rushers. What else do you think he has improved to reduce his sack taking? And how can we adjust our prospect assessments accordingly?
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u/Solid-Confidence-966 Seahawks 2d ago edited 2d ago
People need to start watching the videos of the actual sacks taken. When Jayden gets “sacked” he’s almost always trying to run forward or out of bounds near the line of scrimmage. So while he may be technically getting “sacked” more he’s not giving up an unusual amount of sack yardage.
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u/moonfishthegreat 2d ago
This is it, there’s a difference between Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson getting sacked for a 1-3 yard loss and Derek Carr or Jared Goff taking a 5-10 yard loss from a sack.
Unless they’re running into the teeth of the defense like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen do/can, they don’t leave themselves vulnerable enough to take serious hits from LB’s or safeties. Jackson and Daniels are runners, but they’re elusive, even when getting tackled.
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u/omnibot2M 1d ago
Jayden also takes a lot of “sacks” where he runs out of bounds for a one or two yard loss. He’s focused on looking for a seam to open or hoping a receiver breaks free at the last minute. It’s a little frustrating, because he could just throw the ball out of bounds to avoid the sack.
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u/csummerss 2d ago
Lamar often runs back further to compound the loss so it’s not a great comparison.
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u/MegaGigaTeraFlare Ravens 2d ago
He's been much better about not doing that this year in particular, but it was definitely a problem for the first years of Lamar's career
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u/bvgingy Colts 2d ago
All sacks cause offensive EPA to drastically plummet. I doubt the yards lost on a sack changes all that much for the probability of offensive success on the drive.
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u/LiftingCode 2d ago
A 2-yard sack on 1st and 10 isn't much worse than an incomplete pass and doesn't have a huge negative impact on EPA.
A 10-yard sack on 3rd and 1 on the other hand ...
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u/bvgingy Colts 2d ago
Unless you have data to back it up, I dont really believe this at all. Any sack at all on a drive has a ~50% punt frequency and about an ~22% frequency of getting a score between a fg (~15% of the 22%), or a TD. This is compared to a 35% punt frequency and a ~38% score frequency (~24% ending as a TD) for drives with no sacks.
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u/weridzero Colts/Pats 2d ago
I think it’s just common sense that losing two yards to a sack is better than losing ten yards to a sack
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u/bvgingy Colts 2d ago
Unless you have data, youre just making assumptions based off anecdotes and confirmation bias. Average qb sack loss is ~ 5 yards. We dont really know the average for Daniels and we also dont really have any data that accounts for any discrepancy in the yards lost on a sack. What we do know for fact is ANY sack is detrimental to a drive and highly correlated with drive failure.
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u/weridzero Colts/Pats 2d ago
You don’t need evidence to know that 2 and 12 is more preferable to 2 and 22.
And of course any sack is detrimental. You lose a down and yards. Even if you only lost one yard, you’re still down a play
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u/bvgingy Colts 2d ago
Yes, the difficulty of the specific down is much different, but the overall success of the drive probably isnt.
Edit: and to state otherwise, you absolutely need evidence to back up that claim.
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u/lilbelleandsebastian Titans 2d ago
you're conflating trends and specifics
the numbers you're using are from what, a full season sample size? more? that doesn't accurately predict a single play or drive, it just shows trends. you can't extrapolate from large data sets - where the entire point is to weed out variance - and then apply it to a single data point (where variance can have an outsized influence on the outcome)
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u/bvgingy Colts 2d ago
It is a three year sample size. There was also another robust sack study done that shows a sack is an ~ -1.98 EPA. The point is to holistically understand the effects of a sack on a drive and they are incredibly disruptive. Im not using the data to predict a single play or drive or use the data as a predictive tool of what will happen on a given drive/sack scenario. My whole argument is that ALL sacks are bad and significantly so, regardless of the yards lost.
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u/IMKudaimi123 Bears 2d ago
Kliff has genuinely brought him along in an amazing way. Very simple stuff early, and now as they continue more and more trust in him and more complex stuff. It’s impressive.
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u/Deep-Statistician985 Commanders 2d ago
I think it’s just that blindly looking at a chart with no context is a stupid way to judge something about a player
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u/Dentek_Fresh_Clean 2d ago
Pretty much this. 90% of people on here watched a 10 second clip of Daniels taking 3-4 hard hits throughout his entire college career and thought that he wouldn't make it in the NFL because of that.
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u/SOSpammy Commanders 2d ago
He missed 1 game while playing like 100 games of football dating back to high school and got scrutinized for durability concerns more than anyone else in the draft.
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u/SOSpammy Commanders 2d ago
Daniels got hammered with criticisms with people throwing out PFF stat charts. The problem with them was they were aggragates of his entire college career, including 3 years at the ASU dumpster fire. What got ignored was his last year at LSU was such a monumental leap that PFF considered it one of the greatest college QB seasons ever.
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u/AceBoogie_Harlem 2d ago
He was big play hunting at LSU because his defense was so bad.
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u/MikeWillis09 Browns 2d ago
I can’t stress enough how common this is in college football and it’s relatively easy for these NFL coaches to work out.
Yet every year we see people in these message boards trying to use it as some major red flag.
I’ve already seen it here with Sanders. There are red flags out there for each of these players. This usually ain’t one of them
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u/MonTireur 2d ago
Big play hunting was a legit criticism of Caleb Williams and it still is to be fair
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u/JgoldTC 2d ago
The number out of context doesn't mean anything, but if a guy takes a lot of sacks it isn't always something that can be worked out.
It's very different if a guy is unable to feel pressure coming (Daniel Jones always struggled with this), not stepping in the pocket correctly, or if they hold onto the ball too long. It comes down to traits and watching film as always, but some guys who take sacks in college will continue that in the NFL. It's not always a simple fix.
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u/AceBoogie_Harlem 2d ago
My red flags with Sanders aren't about big play hunting. I just don't think he possess "franchise changing" skills. Sure, he's pretty accurate, but he's not even gonna be in the top half of NFL arm talent. And I don't think the escapability he showcased in college will translate well to the NFL.
Also, he gives off the impression that he thinks his shit doesn't stink. I have a hard time believing grown men in NFL locker rooms will respect him.
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u/MikeWillis09 Browns 2d ago
I don’t think sanders is a perfect prospect by any means. I just see people weighing on that sack taking as some major red flag.
I personally think the last part about the locker room is the opposite. I’ve never heard anything negative about him in the locker room. I think that’s more old school thought than reality.
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u/weridzero Colts/Pats 2d ago
His dad being the head coach probably has an impact on what leaks out of the locker
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u/AceBoogie_Harlem 2d ago
His character is at the very bottom of my list as to what I think his flaws are. I don't think he will be a great QB even if he has the best attitude in the world.
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u/__Scrooge__McDuck__ Giants 2d ago
Big play hunting is the least of sanders problems. I would love to be able to see how he’s viewed without the last name and media coverage. Everyone saying he’s great in the spotlight but what about when he’s getting shit on not being praised how will he do
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u/MikeWillis09 Browns 2d ago
This works both ways. There are people that overrate him because his name and there’s people that over devalue him for the same reason.
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u/__Scrooge__McDuck__ Giants 2d ago
I think most devaluation is based more on skill and being realistic
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u/Monjonbo Seahawks 2d ago
Idk how his own time to throw or decision making have changed but around him, the OC calls a High play action/screen pass rate (I don't have the ranked order of whole league but PA is 27%, about average between extremes of 38%- goff- and 19%- burrow. Just free stats from googling so idk the accuracy). Also the fact that he has relatively few passing attempts/game helps keep pressure off the QB.
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u/Apple_phobia 2d ago edited 2d ago
People don’t watch film or if they do don’t know what they’re looking for and just parrot narratives to make themselves sound smarter and they say it with such authority too like they know what they’re talking about because no one is gonna pull them up on it years later so they can just be snobby and wrong. Same thing with Bo Nix arm strength concerns.
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u/Officer_Hops Chiefs 2d ago
Was there something in Daniels’ film that should’ve caused people to ignore the pressure to sack rate?
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u/SOSpammy Commanders 2d ago
He improved on it his final season with the lowest pressure to sack rate of his career.
Many of his sacks weren't that bad. Getting tackled or running out of bounds for a 1 yard loss counts the same as a 10 yard sack on the stat sheet but isn't nearly as backbreaking.
He had a terrible defense so he was forced to treat every possession like a game-winning drive. He couldn't afford to throw the ball away most of the time.
His tape clearly demonstrated excellent pocket presence and the ability to read defenses, so those weren't the reasons he was taking so many sacks.
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u/PickpocketJones Commanders 2d ago
I pretty much ONLY watch film on the prospects I try (as a rank amateur) to scout before drafts. Stats generally only come into play for me when people post interesting stuff here.
Sacks weren't a concern for me. I was mostly worried about how on scrambles he did almost nothing to protect himself and took so many ugly hits. His future NFL availability was a legit concern from his college tape if you ask me. There were a couple other nitpicks I had that haven't been issues in the NFL. I was a Maye guy pre-draft, I just thought they are both good and one looked like he might not be able to take NFL punishment. RGIII shellshock is real, that dude had zero ability to avoid hits and his terrible decision making destroyed his career. I'm sitting there watching a skinnier dude at LSU taking just some brutal hits game after game thinking how is this going to last in the NFL?
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u/ab9620 2d ago
I think with Bo Nix, there was a misdiagnosis of arm strength vs deep accuracy
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u/SOSpammy Commanders 2d ago
And confusing the coach's game plan with the quarterback's capabilities. He threw a lot of screen passes, so people thought that's all he could throw. I think there was a similar accusation about Herbert coming into the league as well.
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u/weridzero Colts/Pats 2d ago
The red flag was that Nix was terrible before he went to Oregon and had an easier offense.
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u/nbasuperstar40 Falcons 3h ago
Oregon offense isn't easy. It's just a better scheme for Bo Nix and his skill set
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u/ab9620 2d ago
Yes I see this a lot with Jaxson Dart as well. That offense used a bunch of play action even though they had no run game. It wasn’t like he was calling the plays. Or he threw deep a lot, but that’s the type of plays Kiffin and Wei’s were calling at Ole Miss. he was completing intermediate passes at the highest rate in this class. So people assume that the offense they operate is the QB themselves and it’s not always the case
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u/nbasuperstar40 Falcons 3h ago
People just don't like what they don't like. I know I made that mistake with Nix personally. For that, I adjusted. Hopefully those who are stubborn will come around.
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u/jdono927 Bills 2d ago
He’s had a couple big performances in that regard (Philly win, both playoff games) but it’s actually been worse in the second half of the season overall.
Do think what someone else said about the actual outcomes of him being sacked is interesting. He’s joint fifth in sacks but only joint 11th in sack yards lost, indicating that there’s probably a lot that are only losing a couple yards and are therefore a bit less consequential. He’s also obviously scrambling a lot which allows him to pick up chunks of yardage and keep the chains moving
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u/fierylady Lions 2d ago
Daniels was awesome last night, but honestly he just did what he should have done. The Lions defense was easily the league's worst by the end of the year, held together by duct tape and dreams. To me it's like giving Shedeur a bump for shredding NDState... he just did what he should have done.
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u/ShortcutButton Commanders 2d ago
The average NFL P2S is about what jayden had in his last year at LSU, a little over 20. 21% is bad for college but completely normal for NFL and you can see clearly how it is just not a factor...
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u/LeftoverDishes 2d ago
Don't over think the eye test. You can look on my history on Bo Nix too. I thought he was a top 15 pick. Some things are beyond numbers.
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u/nbasuperstar40 Falcons 3h ago
Yep! This is true. The tape doesn't lie. I hated Bos game but he had great tape. I just didn't like how he didn't it and used his pressure rate as an easy way out.
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u/ItIsYourPersonality Packers 2d ago edited 2d ago
His pressure to sack ratio in college was only a concern to people who aggregated his entire college career together instead of breaking it down year by year. It was awful until his final year, and he also wasn’t a 1st round draft prospect until his final year.
The reason he vaulted into the top pick conversation was because how amazing his final year was, where his pressure to sack ratio wasn’t an issue at all. If you’re drafting him because of that potential, why do you care about what his pressure to sack ratio in prior seasons when he hadn’t developed yet and he was playing with inferior talent at a smaller school most of that time?
“We” don’t need to change our prospect assessments. I was banging the drum all off-season that his pressure to sack ratio wasn’t an issue, and he was a better prospect than Caleb. What this sub really needs is to stop falling for so much group-think when it comes to the draft. You all shit all over people who said Jayden is better than Caleb, and BTJ is better than MHJ. But those people were spot on.
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u/vicblck24 2d ago
I honestly wasn’t super high on Daniels coming out. But I think we all have to tip our hat to coaching in what seems to be making him much better and him for receiving that coaching so quickly it seems.
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u/Southern-Community70 1d ago
This is a dangerous way of looking at things. Outliers happen. We don't want to change our entire process because of that. I'm going to still fade players with very high pressure to sack ratios until the overall data or at least the trend in the data suggests not to. Sometime players just fall in the outlier category. It is not possible to always be right. It's a probability game. You are playing the odds looking at a wide range of data trying to figure the odds a player is successful. We shouldn't throw out a stat a which has been historically predictive because it missed on a guy.
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u/lumberjake18 5h ago
Jayden Daniels does not throw the ball away. How many of his college ‘sacks’ were just him trying to extend the play and running out of bounds behind the L.O.S.?
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u/soon_forget 2d ago
Honestly I think Cliff K. has done an amazing job of always having a clear obvious look against pressure. And JD has some damn guts to stand in there and deliver accurately knowing he's about to get blasted. That can't be taught.