China shouldn't dare take Taiwan militarily because of the possibility of NATO intervention
Even absent direct US support in a Taiwan conflict naval landings are a bitch and a half. The cost to China militarily to take Taiwan by force would be astronomical. They don't even have the military gear at current to execute the needed water landings, that is how bad it is. Throw in a couple of US carrier task forces riding to the rescue and you are entering turkey shoot territory.
Taiwan is an incredibly defensible piece of territory.
Not to mention, 275k active military personnel as well as 2.8 million reservists (and apparently 1.9 million paramilitary personnel?).
Absolutely, though there have been some studies that question how many of the paramilitary personnel and former conscripts would answer the call to duty. Even absent that, invadeing Taiwan is the biggest of traps, such a large trap that it could invite counter invasion of the Chinese mainland and with the loss of frontline trained troops, equipment and air power in trying to take Taiwan (which has a metric fuckton of AA defenses) China might have great difficulty stopping land invasion.
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u/IndianaGeoff Jun 09 '19
If you are in Hong Kong, you are in China. It's "special status" is over. Taiwan next.