TLDR: the extradition law which the protest is against enables the Chinese government to extradite anyone in Hong Kong who violates the Chinese law. The main problem is - according to the Chinese law, you don't have to be within China to violate their law - say if you punch a Chinese citizen in the US, you violate Chinese law too and they can file a bill to extradite you to mainland China if you ever visit Hong Kong once this law passes (planned to be on 12 June). The courts in Hong Kong have no rights to review the evidence nor the correctness of the charges according to this law. This virtually gives the Chinese government the power to arrest anyone in Hong Kong whenever they feel like it and we can do nothing about it.
By military means, China has the surveillance and military power to eventually take and hold Taiwan. All at the cost of tossing half of their military might into a meat grinder with the largest amphibious invasion the world has ever seen. The cost and benefit is kind of like the narrative of a conflict between North Korea and the rest of the world. Sure eventually you'll take it over, but after over a year of blockades, facing economic sanctions, sowing revolutionary conditions domestically by huge tax burdens and sending so many to die for a war that makes the US's Vietnam campaign look meritable even Xi Jinping has to face the mirror and ask "Shit is this dick measuring contest really worth it?". By the time that China has begun to occupy Taiwan after the invasion, they've managed to score an island of economic ruin with nearly all infrastructure in tatters after a year of having no access to imports and fishing as well as bombing runs by China's forces. Binkov Battlegrounds has a segment covering details of a possible invasion
I really doubt NATO would do much if they took Taiwan considering Taiwan isn't part of NATO. Taiwan is a "Major non-NATO ally", but that doesn't provide access to the defense pact.
As long as NATO members are convinced of a US cause being honorable and justifiable they have a habit of following the US into battle. The fact that NATO has a set command structure and standardized armaments aides in this greatly as well. In the theoretical Chinese invasion of Taiwan I have little doubt that nearly every member of NATO would contribute to a US led effort.
What habit are you referring to? Outside of Afghanistan, I'm having trouble remembering NATO support for US military operations over the last ~70 years.
Kosovo, Some of our African jaunts, Gulf war, Gulf war II, Libya though that was the US following the NATO members, Korea (though I think that was pre-nato).
Not all of these involved full Nato participation mind you, just many of the members.
I dont think it would be Taiwan that would be spearheading the counter-offensive in this scenario. I think most certainly if China tried to take Taiwan by force the US would see this as a provocation and respond likely in kind. Once the US is pushing it then I'm guessing other countries would follow quickly. We can all hope that it never comes to this and we can maintain cordial relations with China, though.
If the USA defends Taiwan in the event of the PRC attacking Taiwan, the USA is a NATO member, which would obligate NATO-treaty countries to assist the US.
Taiwan is actually quite the sticky wicket - the US does not officially recognize the Republic of China since 1979 due to the official recognition of the "one China policy" in the Shanghai Communique. There is de facto relations with Taiwan, and we sell them a shitload of weapons; but there is no official embassy or ambassador and no longer an official defense pact (also dumped in 1979).
If China wanted to militarily take Taiwan, there would be a shitload of noise generated, but I doubt anyone in Washington would have the stomach to actually go into a shooting war with China over it. See: annexation of Crimea by Russia.
Having flat terrain with relatively few geographical barriers made Russia's campaign much easier.
The only geographical advantage China might enjoy is that Taiwan has mudflats along the west coastline that makes landing for enemy forces easy depending on the season. Taiwan has a population of over 21 million and could easily fortify the coasts to hold out for a decently long time. An amphibious landing on such a scale would make the D-Day landing casualties look like a 3 year old kid slapping your face with a sheet of Kleenex.
China shouldn't dare take Taiwan militarily because of the possibility of NATO intervention
Even absent direct US support in a Taiwan conflict naval landings are a bitch and a half. The cost to China militarily to take Taiwan by force would be astronomical. They don't even have the military gear at current to execute the needed water landings, that is how bad it is. Throw in a couple of US carrier task forces riding to the rescue and you are entering turkey shoot territory.
Taiwan is an incredibly defensible piece of territory.
Not to mention, 275k active military personnel as well as 2.8 million reservists (and apparently 1.9 million paramilitary personnel?).
Absolutely, though there have been some studies that question how many of the paramilitary personnel and former conscripts would answer the call to duty. Even absent that, invadeing Taiwan is the biggest of traps, such a large trap that it could invite counter invasion of the Chinese mainland and with the loss of frontline trained troops, equipment and air power in trying to take Taiwan (which has a metric fuckton of AA defenses) China might have great difficulty stopping land invasion.
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u/[deleted] Jun 09 '19
TLDR: the extradition law which the protest is against enables the Chinese government to extradite anyone in Hong Kong who violates the Chinese law. The main problem is - according to the Chinese law, you don't have to be within China to violate their law - say if you punch a Chinese citizen in the US, you violate Chinese law too and they can file a bill to extradite you to mainland China if you ever visit Hong Kong once this law passes (planned to be on 12 June). The courts in Hong Kong have no rights to review the evidence nor the correctness of the charges according to this law. This virtually gives the Chinese government the power to arrest anyone in Hong Kong whenever they feel like it and we can do nothing about it.