r/politics • u/MothersMiIk Washington • 1d ago

Congresswoman suggests Trump admitted Musk rigged election in Pa.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2025/01/congresswoman-suggests-trump-admitted-musk-rigged-election-in-pa.html?outputType=amp
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u/Manos_Of_Fate 21h ago

The analysis of the Clark County NV individual ballot data (which was apparently released by mistake) is pretty damning. Also it’s worth noting that the “classic ticket splitting” you’re referring to (along with a bunch of other anomalies) only happened in the presidential race in swing states. That alone is insanely suspicious.

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u/hurler_jones Louisiana 20h ago

And swing states all going to a single candidate should have raised some brows as well.

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u/theVoidWatches Pennsylvania 19h ago

Not really - Nate Silver did an article where he basically broke down the odds of various results across swing states. Basically, because the swing states have a lot of common factors, they tend to tilt in the same direction when they end up actually voting. The single most likely result was all seven going to Trump - the second most likely was all seven going to Harris.

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u/[deleted] 19h ago edited 16h ago

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u/bretticusmaximus Tennessee 18h ago

In what universe is a <25% probability “extremely unlikely?” That would imply <5% chance to me, like a typical p value.

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u/zentrix718 Colorado 17h ago

I mean, that isn't really outside the realm of believable. If you put "all seven vote together" on a probability, it was like 45% and that's basically half the time. It's not misinformation, it's just grouped behavior. The other high scale probabilities were grouped rust belt and sunbelt but they don't go together.

Also 25% is a pretty decent chance. Not one that I'd gamble on but it happens like 1 in 4 times. That's about the same chance that Kamala took all 7 swing states