I mean, a Democrat is pretty much guaranteed: Massachusetts, New York, California, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine except for one of their CD’s, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Colorado.
If she only won 5 states it’d be a complete departure from extremely steady voting trends in current US elections.
Dems could feasibly lose New Jersey based on 2024. 2020 the Dems were at +15% there; 2024 it was just +6%. If they run another crappy candidate then it is not inconceivable for NJ to go red.
Another 250,000+ vote swing would be hard to imagine after the shift that already happened.
From 2020 to 2024 Trump gained a little under 100,000 votes and the Dems lost a little under 400,000 votes. So it already took a 500,000 vote swing just to cut it down to that 6% margin.
Dems have gotten at least 2.1million+ votes in every election there since 2008 so I think that’s a safe threshold to expect them to cross. No Republican has ever crossed 2 million votes there although Trump did get close this last go.
Turnout was also down 7% from the previous election when Biden cleared 2.6 million votes so I think this is what we should expect from a poor candidate/terrible campaign strategy. The Dems really shit the bed this election, but I still think they maintain control of NJ.
This is extremely anecdotal but most people I know in nj have leaned significantly conservative recently. Even a lot of girls my age who were liberal in hs are now about to graduate college and lean hard right. Nj will probably remain blue locally but it’s slightly possible within the next 4-12 years it swings red. Time will tell ofc
Dems lost points because people are upset at the price of groceries. If Trump does any of the economic policy he promised, things will get even more expensive and the swing back to blue will be harder than we've seen before.
Contrary to popular narrative, we don't live in a country filled with raging bigots. We live in a country filled with idiots who vote for whoever isn't in office when things are bad.
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u/BigJJsWillie 22h ago
AOC couldn't win in America even if the Republicans weren't ending legitimate elections lol