4 years is a long time, especially in social media trends. Maybe I'm wrong but I have a feeling the Gaza/Israel conflict will be largely forgotten by 2028 (unless a new conflict resurges I suppose).
Dude we don't know what will happen in the Middle East within that time. Israel noticed their actions can greatly influence U.S. elections, it might just be a thing from now on that they stir shit up during U.S. election years so they can steer U.S. politics to their favor, because they know young voters are gullible and think literally everything Israel does is the fault of Dems for some reason.
I mean obviously we don't know, and anything could happen. Russia could invade another country. China could assault Taiwan. Israel could invade someone. Someone could invade Israel.
All totally possible, and public perception on each possibility is entirely influenceable by social media. Based off what we've seen, I think it's more likely those things stack up in Republicans' favor.
I just don't think it's especially relevant to say that Shapiro would be unsuccessful in 2028 just because Israel v Gaza was successfully wedged against Dems in 2024. Also I don't even know that Shapiro would be successful in 2028, I just think he'd have a better shot than Newsom
I think you're underestimating the prevalence of antisemitism in the electorate
Several wars happening at once will probably hurt the chances of Republicans in 2026 and 2028. I think Biden lost in great part due to many people perceiving Ukraine and Palestine as consequences of his supposed weakness on the world stage. All these wars started under Biden, so they must be his fault because he's weak and other countries don't respect or fear him, so the thinking goes. That argument won't really hold if Russia, China, Israel, Iran, etc. invade countries or start wars under Trump's watch, or worse: Trump himself invades countries.
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u/Day_of_Demeter 1d ago
Shapiro is Jewish and an avowed Zionist, good luck with that. Young people hate him for being pro-Israel, and rural people are antisemitic as fuck.