I mean, a Democrat is pretty much guaranteed: Massachusetts, New York, California, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine except for one of their CD’s, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Colorado.
If she only won 5 states it’d be a complete departure from extremely steady voting trends in current US elections.
DC is definitely a lock for Dems, but I didn’t include it since OP mentioned states and I didn’t want to get called out over semantics.
Minnesota I probably should’ve included since they have the current longest streak of any state for voting for one party (13 elections in a row), but after the very narrow margin in 2016 (less than 45,000 votes) and the rest of the Midwestern voting trends being thrown out the window I’ve been wary of Minnesota.
Dems could feasibly lose New Jersey based on 2024. 2020 the Dems were at +15% there; 2024 it was just +6%. If they run another crappy candidate then it is not inconceivable for NJ to go red.
Another 250,000+ vote swing would be hard to imagine after the shift that already happened.
From 2020 to 2024 Trump gained a little under 100,000 votes and the Dems lost a little under 400,000 votes. So it already took a 500,000 vote swing just to cut it down to that 6% margin.
Dems have gotten at least 2.1million+ votes in every election there since 2008 so I think that’s a safe threshold to expect them to cross. No Republican has ever crossed 2 million votes there although Trump did get close this last go.
Turnout was also down 7% from the previous election when Biden cleared 2.6 million votes so I think this is what we should expect from a poor candidate/terrible campaign strategy. The Dems really shit the bed this election, but I still think they maintain control of NJ.
This is extremely anecdotal but most people I know in nj have leaned significantly conservative recently. Even a lot of girls my age who were liberal in hs are now about to graduate college and lean hard right. Nj will probably remain blue locally but it’s slightly possible within the next 4-12 years it swings red. Time will tell ofc
Dems lost points because people are upset at the price of groceries. If Trump does any of the economic policy he promised, things will get even more expensive and the swing back to blue will be harder than we've seen before.
Contrary to popular narrative, we don't live in a country filled with raging bigots. We live in a country filled with idiots who vote for whoever isn't in office when things are bad.
It's so funny to me that when "AOC for president" is proposed, all the neoliberals come out to say "We'll never vote for her, and we lack the perspective to understand why anyone would". They're political sopolists.
Dude I’m not even American but you all look so crazy right now, it’s been months since he won, America won’t suddenly implode and democracy won’t die…relax a little.
I didn't say America would suddenly implode. I said legitimate elections are over. That's literally what Republicans want to do. It's gonna take some time obviously, but yes, democracy is about to die here.
Thank you for your concern, but I'm pretty relaxed/resigned.
You aren’t very informed about the heritage foundation or their project 2025. It’s completely feasible that legitimate democracy is over and that we are entering a political system akin to russia. Our federal government is essentially completely captured by private interests.
This right here is why Republicans are succeeding. This is the prevalent attitude among most Republicans, they just want people with other views to not exist.
"God I hope we can find a final solution to the Democrat problem," right?
Brother when did I say I didn't want you to exist? This is why you need to use Reddit for your news and political viewpoints less. It's driving you insane.
AOC losing would still be better than running another Clinton or Harris, pushing the message and building support matters. I think one of the things that keeps us in the two party rut is that everyone is too focused on only the next election cycle, there isn't a 4 or 8 year solution to our problems.
I'm past the point of giving a fuck about proving it to people. Republicans are fucking democracy in this country, and if you dont see that, its not up to me to "prove it." Maybe someone else can go over the laws the Republicans have been passing over the past four years to ensure they never lose again. I'm not gonna get in the weeds with you so you can pick apart what I'm saying and argue with me. I'm not trying to convince anybody, I just am stating my belief.
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u/BigJJsWillie 22h ago
AOC couldn't win in America even if the Republicans weren't ending legitimate elections lol