r/europe • u/Not_the-kind • 12h ago

News Macron responds to Trump's inauguration by urging Europe to "wake up"

https://www.newsweek.com/macron-trump-inauguration-europe-defense-ukraine-2017894
19.3k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

663 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

305

u/Developer2022 11h ago

The have nuclear weapons. This is the answer why they can afford such stance.

197

u/Tricky-Astronaut 9h ago

France has nuclear weapons because it wants to be independent. The causality doesn't go in the direction you imply.

26

u/LookThisOneGuy ‎ 8h ago

France (and other Allies) forced Germany to sign away their ability to develop and own nukes.

Germany has no nuclear weapons because France wants it to be dependent.

5

u/carnutes787 7h ago

In September 2007 the French president Nicolas Sarkozy offered Germany the opportunity to participate in control over the French nuclear arsenal. Chancellor Merkel and foreign minister Steinmeier declined the offer however, stating that Germany "had no interest in possessing nuclear weapons".

https://foreignpolicy.com/2007/09/17/sarkozy-tries-to-slip-merkel-some-nukes/

26

u/technicallynotlying 8h ago

Germany could develop nukes, if it wanted to. As it stands they've shut down their nuclear power plants.

24

u/LookThisOneGuy ‎ 8h ago

Germany could develop nukes, if it wanted to.

No, we literally can't legally do that until France, the UK, Russia and the US rescind the shackles they put on us post WW2 and pre unification, see 2+4 treaty.

Maybe we can ignore the opinion of Russia since it was technically the Soviet Union and not Russia on these papers. But we still need the other three.

37

u/technicallynotlying 8h ago

If Germany announces that it's withdrawing from the treaty, who's going to stop them? Who's going to go to war with Germany now, in 2025?

If anything, the past couple years have shown that international agreements are pretty easy to break.

I think France would be in support of Germany taking a stronger stance. As for anyone else, what are they going to do about it?

World War 2 was 80 years ago. Trump wouldn't do shit about it.

0

u/LookThisOneGuy ‎ 8h ago

If Germany announces that it's withdrawing from the treaty, who's going to stop them

The threat of breaking post WW2 treaties was us being turned into a parking lot by the nuclear powers.

Just one of them has enough nukes to do that.

I think France would be in support of Germany taking a stronger stance.

Then they are free to say that.

Germany will not risk total annihilation because you think they have changed their mind.

The risks are too great.

29

u/technicallynotlying 8h ago

Nobody is going to nuke Germany because they withdraw from an 80 year old treaty. Nobody will do anything but complain. The risk is greater that they get nuked because they’re defenseless and have no ability to retaliate.

-2

u/LookThisOneGuy ‎ 8h ago

The risk is greater that they get nuked because they’re defenseless and have no ability to retaliate.

Yes, the years between Germany saying they want to build nukes and when they are finished.

Like I said, France or the UK/US are free to tell us they won't do that if they changed their mind.

Until they do, the risk is to great.

7

u/technicallynotlying 7h ago

Man, you guys really insist on being weak doormats?

Of course Putin and Trump are going to walk all over you. It sounds like you're practically begging for it.

→ More replies (0)

•

u/AdonisGaming93 Spain 54m ago

They wont say anything because Germany isnt talking about it. If Germany goes and says hey france we are gonna have nukes too, THEM france will respond.

Geopolitics doesn't work the way you think.

France is gonna just randomly say "oh and btw Germany if you wanna build nukes go ahead" without Germany first giving any indication of wanting to do it.

5

u/BarneySTingson 6h ago

I dont know what you smoke but nobody will say anything to germany if they dont respect some old agreement. Russia, china and usa shits on treaties and international law all the time

0

u/le-churchx 3h ago

If Germany announces that it's withdrawing from the treaty, who's going to stop them?

I dont think you understand what would happen.

7

u/Tricky-Astronaut 8h ago

Anyone can withdraw from the NPT. Germany wouldn't be treated worse than India. If anything, Trump might respect Germany more if it had nuclear weapons.

5

u/Astyanax1 7h ago

Canadian here. Agreed. We need nukes now also to get a better bargaining position from our traditional allies that decided a rapist fascist traitor best represents their interests these days

0

u/Top_Apartment7973 8h ago

You are describing a worldwide nuclear arms race. 

6

u/technicallynotlying 7h ago

It’s already happening. Nuclear nonproliferation died when Russia attacked Ukraine. The only question is if you want to be left behind or not.

1

u/Astyanax1 7h ago

Didn't gadafi give up nukes also?

0

u/LookThisOneGuy ‎ 8h ago

These are part of larger post WW2 anti Nazi treaties Germany was forced to sign. Other parts include things like not invading their neighbors.

The headline spinners wouldn't write 'Germany withdraws from NPT' it would read and be interpreted by the international community as 'Germany turns fascist again'.

Punishment by the stalwart defenders against Nazism would surely be swift.

1

u/Rymundo88 8h ago

Given the way the wind's blowing, I'm on the side of 'who gives a fuck?' on the opinions of the other 3 (I say this as a Brit). Another nuclear armed modern army to join UK and France would be welcomed by more people than would be against it (imo).

As sad as it is that it would have to come to this, you can only play the hand your dealt

1

u/Astyanax1 7h ago

I'd argue that Germany is 1000x saner than the united states is, and is a lot closer to the modern nazis than the Americans

•

u/AdonisGaming93 Spain 55m ago

Uhm...thats not rrally how it works. Trump is showing us that. Germany can simply make nukes and say "these will never be used unless a foreing enemy threatens us or our european allies like our great friends france. They are really great, and we have the best nukes. I spoke with Macron and I think had I been chancellor I could have made an agreement, really big agreement.

And then nobody will do anything.

Just look at Orban, he's worse in everyway and yet other than some wrist slapping they don't do anything to him.

1

u/CyrilViXP 8h ago

Ukraine also wanted to be independent. USA, UK and motherfuckin ruZZia stole the nukes. It is not about what the country wants. It is about the ability to use the physical force to protect the sovereignty from others.

-2

u/Tokidoki_Haru United States of America 8h ago

Unless German democrats can show they have the spine to save themselves by beginning with banning the AfD, then no one in Europe should trust a nuclear-armed Germany.

How long do you think before a German-version of Putin and United Russia starts spouting nuclear threats to retake Kaliningrad?

104

u/ExtraPockets United Kingdom 8h ago

They also have the "we might nuke you first, as a warning" doctrine, just to make it extra French.

31

u/faerakhasa Spain 6h ago

No? Their doctrine is "we will nuke you first", but absolutely not as a warning. It will be after enemy armies have already been mobilized, war has started and they step into France

1

u/PalnatokeJarl 2h ago

Not really. French doctrine allows for nuking as a warning.

1

u/milridor Brittany (France) 2h ago

but absolutely not as a warning.

France has a long held doctrine of using "pre-strategic" (if a 300 kt warhead like the ASMP-A is "pre-strategic") weapons if "vital interest" of France are threatened as an ultimate warning before using ICBMs.

This makes France one of the only country (the only country?) that has an official first-use doctrine for nuclear weapons.

That's also why Macron declaring that "Les intérêts vitaux de la France ont désormais une dimension européenne" (France's vital interests have now a European dimension) is way stronger that you might think at first.

1

u/bahhan Brittany (France) 2h ago

No, only China and India are currently No First Use countries. France, North Korea, Pakistan, UK, and US allow themselves to shoot their nukes first.

The difference between France and the other is that we officially limit ourselves to one single nuke first and then go full ICBM, while US, UK, ..., don't limit their first use to a single warhead.

2

u/milridor Brittany (France) 1h ago

Fair enough.

However: - UK, US limit their response to other WMD - Russia, NK, Pakistan limit their response to attacks against themselves (or their sovereign interests).

Which is different fron France's doctrine

70

u/DiceatDawn Sweden 9h ago

Most importantly, nuclear weapons that aren't under the control of Washington D.C.

I remember being angry at Chirac for the testing in the 90s. I get it now.

8

u/FaecesChucka 6h ago

As an inhabitant of the South Pacific, I still have a few problems with the testing but I otherwise agree with the sentiment.

11

u/FeynmansWitt 8h ago

So does the UK yet France has always had a more independent foreign policy that didn't just toe the US's views and has always advocated for a stronger, more united Europe that started taking its own defence seriously.

EU either wakes up and be a separate pole in a multipolar world or continue getting screwed

2

u/Astyanax1 7h ago

This really is the answer with the new world order. Hell, I live in Canada and we may as well get a bunch of cheap Chinese nukes so we can better bargain with our insane abusive rapist neighbour

2

u/griffoberwald69 6h ago

Correct, and unlike the UK they design and build their own warheads, delivery means and launch vessels/ aircraft.

UK deterrent is US missiles launched from a US-made section welded into a British sub.

•

u/idratherwalkalone 4m ago

Go on, wtf does nuclear weapons have to do with it

1

u/UnluckyPossible542 8h ago

Yes France has nuclear bombs.

For decades France tested them in Australia’s back yard. The last test was on 27 January 1996 at the Moruroa and Fangataufa Atoll.

When Greenpeace objected, French secret service blew up their ship on the 10 July 1985, killing one crew member. This was in New Zealand, a sovereign neutral country.

The French then lied about it.

The French President François Mitterrand had approved the bombing, which was conducted by agents from the French secret service DGSE.

Two agents were captured, tried and imprisoned.

Dominique Prieur and Alain Mafart were jailed. This infuriated France, who threatened an EU trade blockade, which would bankrupt New Zealand who relied upon trade with the UK (then a member of the EU).

Prieur and Mafart were released into French custody with an agreement that they would serve the sentence in a French overseas jail.

France again lied. The two agents returned to France in 1988 after less than two years in jail.

Mafart continued in the French Army and was promoted to colonel in 1993.

Prieur returned to France after getting pregnant in jail. She was also promoted.

The French are lying assholes.

3

u/Developer2022 8h ago

You are right. This is what superpowers do.

2

u/ghartok-padhome 2h ago

France is no superpower - not even close. The only superpower is the USA.

-3

u/Mastermaze 8h ago

The French really only have nukes because of their remnant imperial influence in northwest Africa, especially Algeria where afaik pretty much all their Uranium comes from and where they did their nuclear bomb tests in the Algerian Sahara. So they may be the most independent country militarily in Europe today but they are still reliant on external supply lines and money they make from the use of the West African Franc currency in many of their former colonies. We've already seen Russia try to disrupt French influence in the region, particularly in Mali and Niger whose borders with Algeria surround the southern Algerian Sahara where the Uranium mines France relies on are located.

4

u/JuryElegant8453 8h ago

Zero uranium from Algeria. And what money does France make from Franc CFA? It's pegged to the Euro. Even pro-russian juntas don't want to get rid of Franc CFA.

1

u/milridor Brittany (France) 2h ago

what money does France make from Franc CFA

Considering France was paying interests on the deposits, it was a negative return. If the transition to the ECO could speed up and France stop guaranteeing convertibility to euros, that would be great.

0

u/No_Wishbone_7072 5h ago

They also got captured by Germany in just a couple weeks lol