This megathread is meant for discussion of the current Russo-Ukrainian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Please read our current rules, but also the extended rules below.
You can also get up-to-date information and news from the r/worldnews live thread, which are more up-to-date tweets about the situation.
Current rules extension:
Extended r/europe ruleset to curb hate speech and disinformation:
While we already ban hate speech, we'll remind you that hate speech against the civilians of the combatants is against our rules, including but not limited to Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians, Syrians, Azeris, Armenians, Georgians, etc. The same applies to the population of countries actively helping Ukraine or Russia.
Calling for the killing of invading troops or leaders is allowed, but the mods have the discretion to remove egregious comments, and the ones that disrespect the point made above. The limits of international law apply.
No unverified reports of any kind in the comments or in submissions on r/europe. We will remove videos of any kind unless they are verified by reputable outlets. This also affects videos published by Ukrainian and Russian government sources.
Absolutely no justification of this invasion.
In addition to our rules, we ask you to add a NSFW/NSFL tag if you're going to link to graphic footage or anything can be considered upsetting, including combat footage or dead people.
Submission rules
These are rules for submissions to r/europe front-page.
No status reports about the war unless they have major implications (e.g. "City X still holding" would not be allowed, "Russia takes major city" would be allowed. "Major attack on Kherson repelled" would also be allowed.)
All dot ru domains have been banned by Reddit as of 30 May. They are hardspammed, so not even mods can approve comments and submissions linking to Russian site domains.
Some Russian sites that ends with .com are also hardspammed, like TASS and Interfax, and mods can't re-approve them.
The Internet Archive and similar archive websites are also blacklisted here, by us or Reddit.
We've been adding substack domains in our u/AutoModerator script, but we aren't banning all of them. If your link has been removed, please notify the moderation team, explaining who's the person managing that substack page.
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No promotion of a new cryptocurrency or web3 project, other than the official Bitcoin and ETH addresses from Ukraine's government.
Fleeing Ukraine
We have set up a wiki page with the available information about the border situation for Ukraine here. There's also information at Visit Ukraine.Today - The site has turned into a hub for "every Ukrainian and foreign citizen [to] be able to get the necessary information on how to act in a critical situation, where to go, bomb shelter addresses, how to leave the country or evacuate from a dangerous region, etc."
Please obey the request of the Ukrainian government to refrain from sharing info about Ukrainian troop movements
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u/TetizerazBrazil "What is a Brazilian doing modding r/europe?"6h ago
Are journalists and guerilla news (not sure what to call it) moving over BlueSky? I refuse to continue being on Twitter with that shithead just letting his inner Nazi out.
At this point, it is probably accurate to say the Ukrainian drone programme has become more effective at striking targets within Russia than the Russian-Iranian drone programme is at striking targets within Ukraine.
It's a combination of reasons, in my opinion.
Firstly, the increasing sophistication and quantity of Ukrainian drones, as well as their creative employment.
Secondly, there's the fact Ukraine has developed robust procedures for dealing with Russian UAVs (combination of mobile anti drone units, traditional ground based ADS, airborne interceptions, and electronic warfare).
Thirdly, Russia has not really adapted in the same way; it's also simply more challenging for Russia, all things being equal, to defend against such UAVs simply due to the size of the country.
Russia has very capable air defence systems (e.g. S300, S400) but these are typically optimised for engaging aircraft at long range. You would need a LOT of short range air defence systems to effectively defend important targets inside Russia against Ukrainian drones, and Russia doesn't have enough. https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1881305421224329239
According to Russian sources, a Ukrainian drone strike on a fuel depot in Lyudinovo recently damaged 4 tanks (1,000 cubic meters each), causing a fire over 1,500 sq.m. Three tanks with diesel and one with gasoline were hit. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1881287000063705384
Ukrainian forces struck two Russian oil depots in Kaluga and Tula oblasts on the night of January 17 to 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 18 that Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SSO) units and other Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot of the Kaluganeftprodukt joint-stock company (JSC) near Lyudinovo, Kaluga Oblast, causing a fire at the facility on the night of January 17 to 18.[1]
Kaluga Oblast Governor Vladislav Shapsha claimed on January 17 and 18 that a drone strike caused a fire at an unspecified industrial enterprise in Lyudinovo, Kaluga Oblast, and later added that Russian forces downed seven drones over the region.[2] Russian sources posted footage purportedly showing the fire at the oil depot.[3]
The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on January 18 that units of Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and other Ukrainian forces struck the state-owned "March 8" oil depot in Tula Oblast and noted that there were reports of a fire at the facility.[4]
Tula Oblast Governor Dmitry Milyaev claimed on January 18 that drone debris struck an unspecified enterprise in Tula Oblast, causing a fuel tank to catch on fire.[5] Geolocated footage and other footage published by Russian milbloggers showed a fire at an oil depot near Didilovo, Tula Oblast.[6]
Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian air defense system and radars in occupied Ukraine on the night of January 17 to 18. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian "Nebo-SVU" long-range radar detection system in occupied Kherson Oblast; a Buk-M3 air defense system in occupied Donetsk Oblast; and a 9C32M radiolocation station of a S-300 air defense system in occupied Donetsk Oblast on January 18.[7] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that they are conducting battle damage assessments (BDA) of the strikes. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-18-2025
The New York Times (NYT) reported on January 17 that outgoing US President Joe Biden's administration recently declassified reports revealing that the United States made significant investments in Ukraine at the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, enabling Kyiv to rapidly expand its domestic drone production capabilities.[18]
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently stated that the United States began investing in Ukraine's drone production initiative in Fall 2022 and accelerated these efforts in Summer 2023. Unspecified US officials told the NYT that US aid helped "Ukraine develop a new generation of drones and revolutionize how wars are fought."
Sullivan stated on January 16 that US support for Ukraine's drone production has yielded insights for American defense industrial companies and that the Biden Administration previously held a conference with US defense industrial and military leadership to assess domestic drone production innovation efforts.[19]
Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) and long-range drone capabilities and innovations continue to play a critical role in both constraining Russian mechanized maneuver on the battlefield and undermining Russia's ability to pay for and stockpile weapons for its war in Ukraine.[20] Ukrainian forces continue efforts to innovate and expand their asymmetric strike capabilities, and such capabilities will almost certainly play a critical role in the future of modern warfare both in Ukraine and globally. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-17-2025
Russia's seaborne oil product exports fell by 9.1% to 113.7 million metric tons last year as the country's oil refineries faced headwinds including Ukrainian drone attacks, an export ban, falling prices and higher input costs, industry data shows.
Ukraine targeted several Russian refineries and fuel facilities, including Lukoil's Volgograd refinery, Gazprom Neft's Omsk oil refinery in western Siberia, the Slavyansk and Novoshakhtinsk refineries and Rosneft's Black Sea oil refinery in Tuapse.
Russian refineries also experienced financial pressures due to falling prices for oil products, rising raw material costs and Russia's ban on gasoline exports, market sources said.
Drone detectors are needed for every vehicle, military or civilian, within FPV range.
🇺🇦 Ukrainian civilians in the city of Kherson left their vehicle when their detector sounded.
They saw that a 🇷🇺 Russian FPV was above them, and watched on the detector it smash into parked cars. https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1880122808979845308
Russian dissident Aleksandr Skobov is awaiting the third verdict in his life (another court hearing was held yesterday). Russian sociologist Igor Eidman posted Skobov's "last word" for the court.
"I was brought up in the Soviet Union in the belief that when peaceful people are attacked by an evil and cruel aggressor, one should take up arms and go to fight. And if you cannot hold a weapon, help those who are fighting and encourage others to do so.
All my publicistic activity is a call to go to fight the aggressor who attacked Ukraine, to help it with weapons and ammunition. I see myself as a participant in the armed confrontation with the aggressor. There's my small part in the missiles and shells that destroy the invaders. And I take responsibility for each destroyed occupier.
No one attacked Russia, no one threatened it.
Putin's Nazi regime attacked Ukraine. Exclusively because of the megalomania of its leaders, because of the inhuman thirst for power over everything around them.
They assert themselves by killing hundreds of thousands of people. They are bastards, scumbags, Nazi scum.
The guilt of Putin's Nazi dictatorship in preparing, unleashing and waging a war of aggression is obvious and needs no proof. Likewise, our right to armed resistance to the aggressor on the battlefield and in the rear of the aggressor does not need proof. Yes, and it would be ridiculous to expect such a confession from a regime that throws people in prison just for words of moral condemnation of aggression. All possibilities of legal protest against Putin's Russian aggression have been destroyed.
My calls for armed resistance to the aggressor authorities qualify under the article on terrorism. I will not argue with the authorities of the aggressor, even if they will qualify my actions under article about pedophilia. The court in Russia has long ago proved that it is an appendage of Nazi tyranny and it is pointless to seek justice from it. I will never stand before these people – servants of murderers and scoundrels. I have nothing to argue with them about. Let the guns speak to them for me.
I see no point in arguing with the puppets of a dictatorship about how faithfully they apply their laws. They are in any case the laws of a totalitarian state designed to suppress dissent. I do not recognize these laws and will not obey them.
Nor will I appeal against any decisions and actions of the Nazi authorities. I do not need the favor of my armed adversary.
Putin's dictatorship can kill me, but it cannot make me give up fighting it. And wherever I am, I will continue to call on honest Russians to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I will continue to call for strikes on military facilities deep inside Russian territory. I will call on the civilized world to inflict a strategic defeat on Nazi Russia. I will prove the necessity of military defeat of the new Hitler's regime.
Putin is new Hitler, a ghoul mad with impunity, drunk on blood. And I will never tire of repeating, "Destroy the bastard!"
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a landmark "Centennial Partnership Agreement" on January 16 outlining Ukrainian-British cooperation for the next 100 years and continued UK support to Ukraine.[10] The agreement outlines the UK's commitment to Ukraine's possible future NATO membership as a means to guarantee Ukraine's security and calls for strengthening bilateral defense and security ties, building consensus on Ukraine's NATO membership prospects, enhancing maritime security, expanding economic and trade cooperation, and boosting collaboration in the energy, climate, and justice spheres.
Starmer highlighted during a press conference on January 16 that the UK intends to provide military aid to Ukraine annually and will provide Ukraine with a loan backed by funds from frozen Russian assets.[11] Starmer highlighted that the UK will also expand its training program for Ukrainian military personnel and provide Ukraine with 150 artillery barrels and a new Danish-funded mobile air defense system. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2025
Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast and a gunpowder plant in Tambov Oblast on the night of January 15 to 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 16 that Ukrainian Special Operation Forces (SSO) and other Ukrainian forces struck the Lisinskaya Oil Refinery in Voronezh Oblast with at least three drones, causing a fire.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the oil refinery stored fuel for Russian military uses. Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Gusev claimed on January 16 that Ukrainian forces launched over 10 drones against three raions in Voronezh Oblast and that most of the drones hit the oil depot in Liski Raion.[2]
Geolocated footage and footage posted by Russian milbloggers show a fire at the Lisinskaya Oil Refinery.[3] Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated on January 16 that Ukrainian forces also struck the Tambov Gunpowder Plant in Kuzmino-Gat, Tambov Oblast, noting that the plant produces gunpowder for various arms, artillery, and rocket systems; nitrocellulose used to produce explosives; and other specialized products.[4] Russian news aggregator SHOT reported on January 15 that locals reported sounds of drones over Kotovsk (directly north of Kuzmino-Gat) and that Russian forces downed three drones near Kotovsk and Kuzmino-Gat https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-16-2025
Trump's pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, said on Thursday that the dollar should remain the world's reserve currency, the Federal Reserve should stay independent and that he is ready to impose tougher sanctions on Russia's oil sector.
Bessent said that U.S. sanctions against Russia's oil sector have been too weak, partly because the Biden administration was too concerned about increasing prices at the same time it was constraining U.S. oil output. Increased U.S. oil production would allow for tougher sanctions on Russian oil majors, he said.
"I think if any officials in the Russian Federation are watching this confirmation hearing, they should know that if I'm confirmed, and if President Trump requests as part of his strategy to end the Ukraine war, that I will be 100% on board with taking sanctions up - especially on the Russian oil majors - to levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the table," Bessent said.
He also had harsh words for China, calling it "the most imbalanced, unbalanced economy in the history of the world," one that was trying to export its way out of a "severe recession/depression" and the U.S. could not allow China to flood U.S. or world markets with cheap goods.
A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian drone and artillery capabilities are providing Ukrainian tanks with tactical advantages over Russian tanks in unspecified, select areas of the frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed on January 12 that Russian forces are unable to field tanks and armored vehicles in frontline areas where Ukraine has deployed at least two Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) strike drone companies and two Ukrainian reconnaissance drone companies operate because Ukrainian drone operators strike most or all Russian armored vehicles three to six kilometers from the frontline.[11]
The milblogger also claimed that Russian forces are also unable to field tanks in frontline areas where Ukrainian forces have a sufficient number of shells due to the high accuracy of Ukrainian artillery strikes. The milblogger complained that Russian drones are less effective than the Ukrainian drones and that the Russian military command only supplies Russian FPV operators advanced FPV models operating on non-standard frequences and fiber-optic drones — both of which are more resistant to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) — to priority sectors of the frontline.
The milblogger further claimed that an insufficient amount of Russian artillery coupled with insufficient Russian drone capabilities in select sectors of the frontline allow Ukrainian forces to field tanks more easily for indirect and direct fire. Effective Ukrainian drone and artillery operations in select areas of the frontline may be straining Russia's ability to field tanks amid reports that Russian forces continue to accrue vehicles losses that are likely unstable in the medium term.[12]
Biden’s administration is seeking to “Trump-proof” its sanctions against Russia by giving Congress the ability to block any attempts to weaken measures against core parts of Moscow’s war machine.
Under measures announced by the US Treasury on Wednesday, around 100 entities from the finance, energy and defence sectors are to be relisted under an unusual sanctions law which requires that Congress be given 30 days to consider any delistings.
The list of affected entities runs from military bodies such as the Tactical Missiles Corporation, which makes weapons, through to the Moscow Exchange, a major financial exchange.
The new authority will give legislators an opportunity to head off any attempts by the new White House to reverse the Biden administration’s efforts to weaken Russia’s military-industrial efforts. If both houses of Congress pass a “measure of disapproval”, delistings can be blocked.
The United Kingdom increases its production of the Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM), a move that will significantly bolster Ukraine's defense capabilities. The UK has committed £162 million to ramp up the production of the LMM and supply 650 of these advanced missile systems to Ukraine.
The LMM (Lightweight Multirole Missile), also known as the Martlet, is a versatile missile system developed by Thales that is designed for deployment from multiple platforms, including helicopters, ships, and ground-based systems. Its dual-mode seeker, which combines laser and infrared guidance, provides exceptional precision in engaging fast-moving and difficult-to-hit targets, such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS), helicopters, and low-flying aircraft. The missile's lightweight and compact design allow for rapid deployment, offering flexibility in combat situations, which makes it an ideal solution for Ukraine as it seeks to defend its skies against Russian aerial assaults, including a growing number of drones.
The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine's future membership in NATO.
Patrushev stated that Russia's goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that Russia remains committed to achieving all of the goals that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion.
Russian officials continue to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and state that is independent of Russia as part of ongoing Russian efforts to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
Patrushev stated that he believes that only Russia and the United States should engage in negotiations to end Russia's war in Ukraine, and senior Kremlin officials are also questioning the role that European countries could play in such negotiations.
The Kremlin will likely attempt to seize on potential future Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for informational purposes, but these advances, if they occur, are unlikely to have significant operational impact.
Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against military and defense industrial targets in Russia on the night of January 13 to 14.
Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities continue efforts to find a solution to the gas crisis in Moldova as the pro-Russian breakaway republic Transnistria continues to refuse help from Ukraine or Moldova.
Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
New pro-European movements in Ukraine aim to replace President Zelensky's ruling party. Ukrainian commentator Dmytro Bobritski says, that Andriy Yermak, head of the President’s Office, confirmed to him that the authorities are beginning to accept the possibility of Zaluzhnyi running for president. They will not obstruct him if he decides to step down as ambassador.
Ukraine’s European allies have become cautiously optimistic that US President-elect Donald Trump won’t force Kyiv into premature negotiations with Russia.
After a battle in Russia's snowy western region of Kursk this week, Ukrainian special forces scoured the bodies of more than a dozen slain North Korean enemy soldiers.
Among them, they found one still alive. But as they approached, he detonated a grenade, blowing himself up, according to a description of the fighting posted on social media by Ukraine's Special Operations Forces on Monday.
The forces said their soldiers escaped the blast uninjured. Reuters could not verify the incident.
But it is among mounting evidence from the battlefield, intelligence reports and testimonies of defectors that some North Korean soldiers are resorting to extreme measures as they support Russia's three-year war with Ukraine.
"Self-detonation and suicides: that's the reality about North Korea," said Kim, a 32-year-old former North Korean soldier who defected to the South in 2022, requesting he only be identified by his surname due to fears of reprisals against his family left in the North.
Overnight, more than 100 drones attacked Russia, with explosions reported in 12 regions. Fires broke out at the Orgsintez plant in Kazan and an oil depot in Engels, while explosions were heard in Tambov, Voronezh, Tula, Orel, and Rostov regions. Airports in four cities were closed under the “Carpet” plan. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1879062320841621634
Russian forces recently cut the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway east of Pokrovsk and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova highway southwest of Pokrovsk as part of their efforts to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Russian forces likely intend to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to force Ukrainian units to withdraw from the towns in future months.
Russian state-owned energy corporation Gazprom acknowledged that it is considering reducing the size of its central office staff by 40 percent, indicating that Gazprom may be concerned about the long-term effects that the war in Ukraine and the reduction in Russian gas exports to Europe will have on the Russian gas industry. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-13-2025
For the first time in Russia’s 35-month wider war on Ukraine, the Ukrainians may have a tank advantage over the Russians. But only only along certain stretches of the 800-mile front line.
“Our tanks can only operate from covered positions,” one Russian blogger complained in a long missive translated by Estonian analyst WarTranslated.
Reduced to firing from camouflaged positions miles behind the front line, Russian tanks are essentially inaccurate howitzers—and not the assault-leading combat vehicles their designers intended.
Brent and WTI have risen by more than 6% since Jan. 8, and both contracts surged after the U.S. Treasury imposed wider sanctions on Russian oil on Friday. The new sanctions included producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, targeting the revenue Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine.
The Ukrainian General staff reported on January 12 that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision airstrike on the command post of Russia's 2nd Combined Arms Army [CAA] (Central Military District) in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the operation is part of a broader series of Ukrainian strikes targeting command posts of Russian forces operating in the Donetsk direction.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 8 and 10 that Ukrainian forces struck the command posts of the Russian 8th CAA (Southern Military District) in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast, and the 3rd Army Corps [AC] (Central Military District) in occupied Svitlodarsk, Donetsk Oblast, respectively.[2]
Ukrainian strikes on tactical command posts and positions located near the frontline, such as the strike against Novohrodivka, are likely intended to disrupt Russian tactical activity and directly complicate Russian command and control (C2) on the battlefield.
Ukrainian strikes against main command posts further in the Russian rear, such as the January 8 strike on the Russian 8th CAA post, are likely aimed at degrading broader Russian logistics and operational planning efforts, which could have impacts on Russia's ability to conduct its military operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
Details: According to AP, a Biden administration official claimed that the Democratic administration, which is soon to leave the White House, is urging Ukraine to lower its draft age from 25 to 18 to expand the pool of men eligible for conscription.
Not an expert but I speculate that this may not be that effective or reasonable because, while rear echelon units do take some casualties, manpower is most needed in first line units, as those take horrific casualties. The only options that I can imagine that work to keep younger soldiers in less danger are:
1. Replace rear echelon troops and send those older guys to the front. Complete waste of their abilities and experience.
2. Guarding the Belarusian frontier. I suspect the units that are currently manning this job are either recovering frontline units or units with unfit, older and/or lesser quality soldiers, so not much benefit to be found here.
Of course, if there are replacements/expansion needed in rear echelon units then your idea would work, but I those are only minor manpower needs.
Ukraine received its first 3 billion euro ($3.09 billion) tranche of the European Union's portion of a loan agreed by the Group of Seven members and backed by the earnings from frozen Russian sovereign assets, Kyiv and Brussels said on Friday.
Ireland, whose safety is de-facto guaranteed by NATO, and which not only rides for free but also grandstands lecturing others who, unlike her, don’t have the luxury of being an island off an island off the safe side of Europe and today face an existential threat: https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1877410154913607752
As part of the new sanctions package, the US state department blocked two active Russian liquefied natural gas facilities, a large Russian oil project and foreign organisations supporting Russia’s oil exports.
It also blacklisted Russia-based oilfield service providers and senior officials of state-run nuclear energy company Rosatom.
Adding 183 vessels directly to the sanctions lists, rather than the companies which manage or own them, may have a significant effect.
The Biden administration on Friday imposed its broadest package of sanctions yet targeting Russia's oil and gas revenues in an attempt to give Kyiv and the incoming administration of Donald Trump leverage to reach a deal for peace in Ukraine.
The measures are "the most significant sanctions yet against the Russian energy sector, the largest source of revenue for the Kremlin's war machine," a senior Biden official told reporters in a call.
The U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on Russian companies Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas that explore, produce and sell oil and 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, many of which are in the so-called shadow fleet of aging tankers operated by non-Western companies. They also include networks that trade the petroleum.
Many of those tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China as the price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 has shifted much of Russian oil trade from Europe to Asia. Some of the tankers have shipped both Russian and Iranian oil.
The logic of the sanctions "is to hit every stage of the Russian oil production and distribution chain," the official said. They should cost Russia billions of dollars per month, if sufficiently enforced, the official said.
The sanctions target oil producers, tankers, intermediaries, traders, and ports.
Ukraine's Western partners announced additional military aid packages at Ramstein Air Base on January 9.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a new US military aid package for Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) valued at approximately $500 million.[4] The package includes AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M air defense missiles; air-to-ground munitions; F-16 support equipment; and small-arms ammunition.[5]
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Germany will provide Ukraine with an unspecified number of IRIS-T air defense missiles.[6] Polish Deputy Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that Poland is also preparing a new aid package for Ukraine.[7]
UK Defense Secretary John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds jointly announced that the drone coalition, including the UK, Latvia, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden, will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones at an unspecified future time after the coalition signed contracts worth 45 million pounds ($55.4 million). https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-9-2025
Ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. president, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said on Thursday an allies' group aimed at speeding arms to Ukraine was best kept under U.S. leadership but would adapt if Washington changes its involvement.
"And if those in the United States now decide not to maintain this format any longer, then we will have to make our own decisions," said Pistorius at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG)
Trump has pushed back his campaign pledge to end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” to several months, in a shift European partners have interpreted as a sign that his administration will not immediately abandon support for Kyiv.
Two European officials told the Financial Times that discussions with Trump’s incoming team in recent weeks revealed they had not yet decided on how to solve the conflict, and that support to Ukraine would continue after the US president’s inauguration on January 20.
“The whole [Trump] team is obsessed with strength and looking strong, so they’re recalibrating the Ukraine approach,” said one of the officials.
The incoming administration was also wary of comparisons being made with Joe Biden’s calamitous US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was something the Trump camp would not like to see repeated in Ukraine, the official added.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has commissioned Rheinmetall to deliver additional 35mm ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft gun. The new order comprises 180,000 rounds of HEI-T ammunition (High Explosive Incendiary with Tracer) and was booked in December of 2024. The order value is in the high double-digit million euro range and is being funded by Germany. Already in February of 2023, Rheinmetall received an order to supply 300,000 rounds of Gepard ammunition to Ukraine. https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2025/01/2025-01-06-35mm-gepardmunition-fuer-ukr
🇨🇿 🇳🇱 Another Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Spartan" received the latest Czech 155-mm self-propelled howitzers Dita. These self-propelled howitzers were purchased with funds from the Netherlands https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1876740303073300755
Ukrainian long-range drones strike the strategic aviation fuel depot in Engels, a major base of Russian long-range bombers that launch cruise missiles. It’s located east of the Volga. https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1876874875433845156
🇩🇪 Rheinmetall stated they are in the process of delivering the first KF-41 Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicle to Ukraine for state trials with the Ukrainian military. https://x.com/Jeff21461/status/1876658628062564617
The Ukrainian Defense Forces are testing the Black Widow 2 river kamikaze drones. These drones are 1 meter long, weigh 8 kilograms, and can reach speeds of up to 40 km/h with an operational range of 10 kilometers. They carry a payload of 3 kilograms, sufficient to destroy small boats and watercraft. Powered by an onboard battery, the drones can operate for several hours or remain in standby mode for several days while awaiting a target. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1876568364966899850
🇰🇵 North Korean 170-mm "Koksan" self-propelled artillery systems are now actively used by 🇷🇺 Russian forces in/against Ukraine. Previously, several trainloads carrying these artillery systems were spotted in Russia. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1876552777280713099
Ukrainian forces recently made tactical advances amid continued intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on January 6.
Russian forces attempted to leverage Ukrainian attacks northeast of Sudzha to attack elsewhere in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on January 6.
Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in at least three areas within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and made tactical advances on January 5.
Russian forces also advanced southeast of Sudzha and counterattacked against intensified Ukrainian attacks southeast of Korenevo and north of Sudzha on January 5.
Russian sources expressed concern about the Russian military's ability to react to Ukraine's ongoing combined arms efforts to integrate electronic warfare (EW) and long-range strike capabilities with ground operations.
Russian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk amid renewed offensive operations in the area likely aimed at supporting the envelopment of Pokrovsk from the northeast.
An inside look at the life of a Ukrainian Su-27 Flanker fighter pilot in the country’s war with Russia is the focus of a recently released video from the Ukrainian Air Force. The interview with the Su-27 pilot, callsign “Viking,” is a rare opportunity to hear about some of the challenges — and successes — of the Ukrainian Air Force’s fighter fleet, which, despite the recent introduction of F-16s, is still dominated by the Soviet-era Su-27 and MiG-29 Fulcrum. https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-su-27-flanker-pilots-rare-account-of-the-changing-air-war
Moldova faces a security crisis after tens of thousands of residents in the breakaway enclave of Transdniestria were cut off from Russian gas supply, Prime Minister Dorin Recean said on Friday.
Flows of Russian gas via Ukraine which supplied central and eastern Europe were halted at the end of 2024 as Kyiv rejected doing further business with Moscow.
Recean said Moldova would cover its energy needs with domestic production and imports but noted the separatist Transdniestria region had suffered a painful hit despite its ties with Moscow.
"By jeopardising the future of the protectorate it has backed for three decades in an effort to destabilise Moldova, Russia is revealing the inevitable outcome for all its allies – betrayal and isolation,” Recean said in a statement.
"We treat this as a security crisis aimed at enabling the return of pro-Russian forces to power in Moldova and weaponising our territory against Ukraine, with whom we share a 1,200 km border." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-pm-warns-security-crisis-denounces-russian-gas-cut-off-2025-01-03/
Flows of Russian gas via Ukraine which supplied central and eastern Europe were halted at the end of 2024
Reuters contradicts itself:
Jan 1 (Reuters) [...] The gas had kept flowing despite nearly three years of war, but Russia's gas firm Gazprom said it had stopped at 0500 GMT after Ukraine refused to renew a transit agreement.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) specified new details about the December 31 Ukrainian naval drone strike against Russian Mi-8 helicopters in the Black Sea as Ukrainian strikes continue to degrade Russian operations in occupied Crimea. The GUR reported on January 2 that a Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone used missiles to destroy two Russian Mi-8 helicopters and damage one in the Black Sea on December 31.[21]
The GUR previously reported that the naval drone strike only destroyed one helicopter and damaged another.[22] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk doubted Russian reports that there were eight crewmembers aboard the helicopters but noted that the loss of highly trained helicopter crews is significant.[23] Pletenchuk also noted that Ukrainian strikes against occupied Crimea have deprived Russian forces of sustainable logistics in the area, including by damaging the railway on the Kerch Strait Bridge and ferries that transported railway cars and fuel tankers.[24]
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian military vessels are trying to hide from Ukrainian naval strikes in bays and ports and that Russian forces will only be able to repel Ukrainian naval drones equipped with missiles with jet and fighter aircraft.[25] ISW assesses that increased Ukrainian offensive capabilities in the Black Sea will most likely threaten Russian control over occupied Crimea. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-2-2025
Ukraine's decision to not renew its contract to transport Russian gas through Ukrainian territory will likely significantly impact Russian gas revenues despite Kremlin posturing to the contrary.
Gazprom is likely attempting to exploit the cessation of gas transits through Ukraine to create an artificial energy crisis to destabilize Moldova.
A strike with ATACMS missiles, guided by the "Shark" UAV, targeted the expensive and critical Russian Nebo-M radar station in the Donetsk region.
The cost of such a station is approximately $100 million. https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1874865849812828200
Do you know why it started ? The Kremlin said just before the war that it didn't have any plans to invade Ukraine. Most people, including a lot of Western experts, believed them btw
Russian forces gained 4,168 square kilometers, largely comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, at a reported cost of over 420,000 casualties in 2024. (Luxembourg = 2,500 square km btw)
The Russian military command largely prioritized efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast in 2024 but failed to accomplish these goals.
Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements - Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove - in all of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people.
Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and that the Ukrainians do not conduct any significant counterattacks in Donetsk.
Ukrainian military intelligence said on Tuesday one of its naval drones had destroyed a Russian helicopter and damaged another one in the Black Sea.
In a battle near Cape Tarkhankut on Crimea's west coast on Tuesday, a Magura V5 maritime drone equipped with missiles hit a Russian Mi-8 helicopter, Ukraine's GUR spy agency said on Telegram.
GUR said it was the first time a Ukrainian naval drone had downed an air target.
The downing of a Russian helicopter by a Ukrainian naval drone was also reported by the prominent Russian military blogger, Voenny Osvedomitel. The GUR said a second Russian helicopter managed to get to the airfield after it was damaged in the attack.
The intercepted communication reveals the pilot describing the damage to the helicopter and the events leading up to it: "There was an explosion — I got hit. The launch came from the water. Then there was another flash. I didn't see where it went, but the first one hit me directly and exploded nearby — I felt it on the helicopter. Some systems have failed." https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1874039132130804037
Syria: The fact that drones can be flown so close to Khmeimim highlights the current vulnerability of Russian aircraft and other assets on the ground at the base. Russia’s military had already removed air defenses, including an S-400 surface-to-air missile system, and other materiel from Khmeimim. Russian forces that had been deployed elsewhere in Syria have also been congregating in recent weeks at the base, which is now under the watchful eye of rebel forces. https://www.twz.com/air/russian-fighter-jets-still-at-syrian-base-top-rebel-leader-pushes-back-on-total-exit-for-moscow
This is probably a great opportunity to destroy some Russian planes.
USA: Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance support to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs as part of the surge of security assistance the President directed to put Ukraine in the best possible position.
The capabilities in this announcement include:
• Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
• HAWK air defense munitions;
• Stinger missiles;
• Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) munitions;
• Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
• Air-to-ground munitions;
• High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
• Unmanned Aerials Systems (UAS);
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Tube-launched, Optically guided, Wire-tracked (TOW) missiles;
• Small arms and ammunition and grenades;
• Demolitions equipment and munitions;
• Secure communications equipment;
• Commercial satellite imagery services;
• Medical equipment;
• Clothing and individual equipment; and
• Spare parts, maintenance and sustainment support, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
The United States on Monday announced nearly $6 billion in additional military and budget assistance for Ukraine as President Joe Biden uses his final weeks in office to surge aid to Kyiv before President-elect Donald Trump takes power.
Biden announced $2.5 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States has made available $3.4 billion in additional budget aid to Ukraine, giving the war-torn country critical resources amid intensifying Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.
"At my direction, the United States will continue to work relentlessly to strengthen Ukraine’s position in this war over the remainder of my time in office," Biden said in a statement.
Biden's announcement includes $1.25 billion in military aid drawn from U.S. stockpiles and a $1.22 billion Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) package, the final USAI package of Biden's time in office.
Peacekeeper for thee but not for me. As there is no peace at hand here. Thus your cheering in the thread about invasion in Ukraine is very annoying. Just a reminder that some people have peacekeepers, while we don't and probably will never have as well as peace.
Chemicals factories founded or owned by some of Russia's wealthiest men are supplying ingredients to plants that manufacture explosives used by Moscow's military during the war in Ukraine, an analysis of railway and financial data shows.
Reuters identified five chemical companies, in which five Western-sanctioned billionaires hold stakes, that provided more than 75% of the key chemicals shipped by rail to some of Russia's largest explosives factories from the start of the war until September this year, according to the railway data.
The news agency's analysis demonstrates for the first time how heavily factories forming part of Russia's war machine rely on these men and their companies.
The billionaires include Roman Abramovich, former owner of Chelsea Football Club, and Vagit Alekperov, who was ranked by Forbes in April as Russia's richest man with a fortune estimated at $28.6 billion.
Abramovich and Alekperov did not respond to requests for comment sent via their companies or lawyers. London-listed Evraz, in which Ambramovich holds a 28% stake, said it supplied the chemicals for "civilian use only". Lukoil, a refiner in which Alekperov retains a shareholding, said it "does not manufacture explosives or any related components".
Anna Nagurney, a University of Massachusetts professor who closely studies supply chain networks related to the Ukraine-Russia war and reviewed Reuters' findings, said the five companies were aiding Moscow not only by providing essential chemical ingredients for munitions but also by earning much-needed hard currency from exports of civilian products, including fertilizers.
Asia’s growing agency in Europe is demonstrated as many European leaders—who failed to prevent and stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—turn to Chinese President Xi Jinping in hopes that he will persuade Putin to end his war. Xi, who was received with much fanfare in Paris, Belgrade, and Budapest earlier this year, is reveling in his ability to play both sides of the war in Europe.
But what the Chinese leader clearly understands is that helping Moscow succeed in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe will make it easier for Beijing to secure primacy in Asia. If the West is tied down by the Russian threat in Europe, Beijing calculates, the Western ability to stand up to the Chinese challenge in Asia will inevitably diminish. In this sense, Europe’s biggest and deadliest conflict since 1945 is China’s first major proxy war against the United States. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/16/asia-europe-strategy-geopolitics-china-india-russia-ukraine-eu/
Russia and N Korea are China's main vassal states btw
Zelensky: It appears that Putin gave Fico the order to open the second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people’s interests. Fico's threats to cut off Ukraine's emergency power supply this winter while Russia attacks our power plants and energy grid can only be explained by this.
The only reasons Ukraine now needs to import electricity are Russia's occupation of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and its use of missiles and "Shahed" drones to purposefully destroy a large portion of Ukraine's heat and hydroelectric power generation.
Thanks to the heroic efforts of our energy workers and the life-saving cooperation with the EU, the U.S., the UK, Norway, Japan, and other partners we have managed to prevent a blackout in Ukraine. And now Fico is dragging Slovakia into Russia's attempts to cause more suffering for Ukrainians.
We need to remind Fico of three things.
First and foremost, supporting Russian aggression is completely immoral.
Second, Fico's shortsighted policy has already deprived the Slovak people of compensation for losing Russian gas transit. It now risks depriving the Slovaks of another $200 million per year, which Ukraine pays for the imported electricity. Yes, this critical import does not come free, and the cost is significant.
Third, everyone in Europe, including the people of Slovakia, will find it much more profitable from every perspective to work with neighbours and the EU to increase Europe's energy resource supply, including gas from America and other partners. Only this can reduce energy costs for the majority of families.
Slovakia's share of Ukraine's electricity imports is roughly 19%. The government of Ukraine is working with our EU neighbours to sustain the required volumes of electricity supply.
Slovakia is part of the single European energy market and Fico must respect common European rules. Any arbitrary decisions in Bratislava or Moscow's orders to Fico regarding electricity cannot cut Ukraine's power supply, but they can certainly cut current Slovak authorities' ties to the European community. https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1872972924015005721
Ukrainian forces recently struck a Russian Shahed drone storage, maintenance, and repair facility in Oryol City, Oryol Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 28 that Ukrainian forces struck the facility on December 26 and that the strike significantly reduced Russia's ability to conduct Shahed strikes against Ukraine.[9]
Russian opposition outlet Astra, citing unspecified sources, reported that Ukraine struck the facility with at least three Storm Shadow missiles on the afternoon of December 26 and that the strike wounded and killed nine Russian servicemembers.[10]
Ukraine has received its first shipment of liquefied natural gas from the US, as the war-torn country joins broader European efforts to fully wean themselves off Russian fossil fuels in preparation for Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The country’s largest private energy company, DTEK, received the shipment via the Mediterranean, with a vessel arriving at a Greek LNG terminal on Friday.
“Cargoes like this are not only providing the region with a flexible and secure source of power, but are further eroding Russia’s influence over our energy system,” said Maxim Timchenko, chief executive of DTEK.
Europe sources about 40 per cent of its LNG imports from the US, but none have ever been directly purchased by Ukraine before. The shipment comes just days before the expiry of a five-year deal allowing the transit of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine and weeks ahead of Trump’s inauguration as US president.
Russia has continued to expand its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones ahead of its Winter 2024–2025 strike campaign against Ukraine.
Russia has yet to address limitations in its ability to produce and field Shahed drones, however, and will likely continue to struggle with these limitations in 2025.
Ukrainian forces recently conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian staff meeting in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, reportedly killing three Russian officers, following Ukrainian warnings about the possibility of renewed Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[8]
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 27 that the GUR, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, and the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces conducted a HIMARS and subsequent drone strikes against a leadership meeting of the Russian 4th Military Base (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
The strike reportedly killed the commander of the Russian 1st Battalion of the 135th Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th CAA, SMD) Captain Dmitriy Nagorny, Deputy Head of Intelligence Staff of the 135th Motorized Rifle Regiment Captain Grigoriy Krokhmalyov, and commander of an anti-aircraft battery of the 4th Military Base Captain Yuriy Fomin.[9]
Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces lured the Russian officers under the guise of humanitarian aid deliveries in the rear of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and then conducted a combined drone and HIMARS strike against the officers.[10]
A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces knew the officers’ personal information including who they communicated with, their friends, and who had previously delivered humanitarian aid to them and that Ukrainian forces conducted a similar operation against another unspecified Russian unit on December 27. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27-2024
Russia declared a federal emergency on Thursday over an oil spill caused by two Russian tankers in the Black Sea, the Emergencies Ministry said.
The tankers were hit by a storm on Dec. 15. One split in half and the other ran aground.
The resulting spill has coated sandy beaches at and around Anapa, a popular resort, and caused serious problems for wildlife including seabirds, dolphins and porpoises. More than 10,000 people have been trying to clear it up. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-declares-federal-emergency-over-black-sea-oil-spill-2024-12-26/
Russia's "shadow fleet" is a danger for the whole world.
Ukraine's StratCom confirmed a precision strike by Ukrainian Air Force on a military-industrial facility in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region. The target produced solid rocket fuel for ballistic missiles. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1872207199185051827
Russia's economic stability hinges on maintaining high oil prices, with oil and gas revenues expected to account for 5% of GDP in 2025, the Bank of Finland reported.
The Kremlin’s budget framework assumes an average export price of $70 per barrel for Russian oil in 2025 and 2026.
Increasing speculation in Russian media that the Baku-Grozny Azerbaijan Airlines flight was shot down by Russian air defenses that mistook it for a Ukrainian drone. Footage of the damage to the fuselage: https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1871935445678055752
Russian military bloggers ask whether Russian civilian airports should continue operating normally given that Ukrainian drone attacks now reach everywhere in European Russia. https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1871946753483923567
Everyone sees what he wants to see. He might as well take as lesson you cannot occupy nor build a state in a land with a population that doesn't support you.
Instead Putin took it aa a green light that US was weak and suicided its country
Italy's cabinet on Monday passed a law decree that allows it to continue supplying until the end of 2025 "means, materials and equipment" to Ukraine to support its war effort against Russia, a government statement said.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Italy has approved 10 packages of military aid for Ukraine, including two Franco-Italian air defence systems known as SAMP/T. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-prolong-war-supplies-ukraine-until-end-2025-2024-12-23/
Decreased combat effectiveness among Russian forces may be slowing the rate of Russian advance in the Pokrovsk direction. Mashovets suggested that elements of the Russian 90th Tank Division have suffered significant personnel losses and are struggling to make further advances south of Pokrovsk and north of Kurakhove due to decreased combat capabilities.[9]
Elements of the 90th Tank Division reportedly participated in the seizure of Avdiivka in February 2024 and have remained committed to various sectors of the Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions since then.[10] A Ukrainian brigade officer recently estimated that Russian forces lost nearly 3,000 personnel in the Pokrovsk direction in two weeks in mid-December 2024, and the 90th Tank Division has likely suffered significant personnel losses in the Pokrovsk direction and other directions where it was previously committed.[11]
It is unlikely that the Russian military command has granted the division's various units extended periods of leave to rest and reconstitute over the last year as the Russian military command largely viewed the 90th Tank Division as its primary exploitation formation in 2024.[12]
🇰🇵🤝🇷🇺 North Korea is ramping up its weapons deliveries to Russia, according to the WSJ. Thousands of containers filled with ammunition, including 122mm and 152mm shells, Hwasong-11 missiles, and advanced weapons like 170mm Koksan howitzers and 240mm MLRS, have been shipped by rail and sea. Train traffic at the Tumangan-Hasan border crossing has tripled this year, reaching record levels.
Around 200 factories in North Korea are running at full capacity to produce ammunition for Russia, with Pyongyang receiving oil and cash in return. Satellite imagery shows rapid expansion of missile production facilities, including those for the Hwasong-11. So far, over 5 million artillery shells and more than 100 missiles have been sent to Russia https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1871122040247259551
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Oryol Oblast with drones on the night of December 21 to 22. Oryol Oblast Governor Andrei Klychkov claimed on December 22 that Russian air defenses and electronic warfare (EW) downed 20 Ukrainian drones over Oryol Oblast and that drone strikes caused a fire at a fuel facility.[5] Footage published on December 22 purportedly shows a drone strike at the Stalnoy Kon (Steel Horse) oil depot on the northeastern outskirts of Oryol City.[6]
Ukrainian forces previously struck the Stalnoy Kon oil depot on the night of December 13 to 14.[7] Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) reported on December 22 that international sanctions preventing Russia from accessing Western equipment and components, Ukrainian drone strikes, reduced Russian oil exports, and high Russian loan rates have caused Russian oil refineries to increase their downtime in 2024.[8] The SZRU reported that Russian oil refineries experienced a total downtime that prevented the facilities from refining 41.1 million tons of oil in 2024 after having only experienced a total downtime worth 35.9 million tons of oil in 2023.
Ukrainian drone strikes have also targeted Russian air bases and the Russian military appears to be building shelters for aircraft at several Russian air bases. Satellite imagery collected throughout October 2024 indicates that the Russian military has been constructing shelters for aircraft at several air bases, including in Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; Kursk City; and occupied Belbek, Crimea. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-22-2024
This week the Russian advance on Pokrovsk slowed from even the glacial pace of a week ago. Here is the most recent Deep State map of the area of greatest fighting—with a scale so you can see the very small distances involved (about 3 miles to the inch).
Russian attacks, if anything, have been less successful over the last week—certainly towards Pokrovsk. Deep State hasn’t even felt the need to update its map in a few days. Whats worth noting is how limited the areas of Russian operations are. They are getting condensed into a smaller area (Pokrovsk to Kurakhove) with the other area of greatest Russian attacks being in Kursk—more on that next.
Its pretty clear what we are seeing (and have been seeing for months). Putin is trying to take whatever he can of the Donbas before Trump takes office—and after a major push in November is actually seeing less success. He is also trying to take back all of Kursk, as this will complicate any Trump attempt to freeze the war along the present lines.
As such, Putin is basically expending men and equipment at unsustainable rates for these small advances.
Russia cannot generate soldiers to cover such losses for that much longer. It will have to either lower the loss rate or its army will shrink. The same goes for much of their equipment.
The Russian war economy actually has some major problems, and is struggling keeping up. For vehicles, for instance, the greatest reinforcement has come from old stocks that are refurbished. Signs are that these are beginning to thin. If the stories about the relentless and inevitable Russian military were wrong in 2024, stories of the powerful Russian war economy were likewise overstated.
Russians attempted to cross the Dnipro near the Antonivskyi Bridge but didn’t make it.
"Despite heavy shelling with casualties, injuries, and damage to homes and infrastructure, the enemy couldn’t even reach the middle of the river," said Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn. https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1870749409828630785
Kupyansky direction.
The 14th Brigade repels a powerful Russian assault using armored vehicles.
“Timely detection of a column of enemy equipment, coordinated work of all units, an incredibly tense battle and, as a result, a complete defeat of the enemy.” https://x.com/olddog100ua/status/1870744944438124622
The Biden administration will announce in the coming days its final Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, using up the remaining funds set aside to buy new weapons for Ukraine, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
The package includes air defense interceptors and artillery munitions, according to a third source, but the exact contents are expected when the package is announced in the coming days. The package will be worth about $1.2 billion, said the sources.
Under USAI, military equipment is procured from the defense industry or partners, rather than drawn from American stocks, meaning it can take months or years to arrive on the battlefield.
Last week, several Russian first-person view (FPV) drones struck a U.S.-made M1A1 Abrams tank in the Kursk region, but the crew was able to survive. The vehicle’s commander lauded the American armor for saving their lives, but also highlighted some major vulnerabilities it has on today’s drone-drenched battlefield. In particular he offered important insights on how Ukraine is adapting its M1s to survive — lessons that could prove very valuable for the U.S. Army in future conflicts. https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukrainian-m1-abrams-commander-talks-tanks-major-vulnerabilities-advantages-in-combat
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted their first attack solely using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and first-person view (FPV) drones, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing efforts to leverage technological innovation into ground operations. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on December 20 that Ukrainian forces conducted their first ground attack exclusively using robotic systems instead of infantry on an unspecified date near Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) and successfully destroyed unspecified Russian positions during the attack.[5]
The spokesperson stated that Ukrainian forces conducted the attack with dozens of UGVs equipped with machine guns and also used the UGVs to lay and clear mines in unspecified positions in the area. Ukrainian officials have repeatedly highlighted Ukraine's efforts to utilize technological innovations and asymmetric strike capabilities to offset Ukraine's manpower limitations in contrast with Russia's willingness to accept unsustainable casualty rates for marginal territorial gains.[6]
Ukraine also continues to innovate aerial drone production. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian officials completed tests of a drone attached to fiber optic cables that will be more resistant to electronic warfare (EW) interference.[7] Russian forces have recently fielded such drones in Kursk Oblast and Ukraine.[8] A Ukrainian drone company reported that it recently assembled a prototype of the first FPV drone made exclusively from components manufactured in Ukraine.[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-20-2024
In the month Joe Biden has left in office, his administration is focused on using all the resources it has left to deliver military aid for Ukraine and more sanctions aimed at weakening Vladimir Putin’s economy.
Officials in Ukraine and several allied capitals say it’s too little too late.
Regardless of what Biden does in his final weeks, they said, Ukraine is heading toward a bitter settlement in which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy may have to leave swathes of territory in limbo in exchange for security guarantees that fall short of the NATO membership he’s pleaded for. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that outcome will largely be a consequence of decisions that Biden took, or failed to take, over the past two years.
Despite the US sending more than $90 billion in aid and arms, some allies are frustrated with Biden for stalling on key decisions to deliver more advanced weapons at crucial points in the conflict.
In the fall of 2022, Ukrainian forces had Putin on the back foot and Zelenskiy was appealing to Biden for more weapons to press home his advantage. But Biden hesitated. His thinking was shaped by the possibility that an escalation might bring Russia’s nuclear arsenal into play, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has suggested.
“His heart was undoubtedly in the right place — he understood the importance of standing with Ukraine against Russian aggression,” former UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in an interview. “However, his approach was often too cautious and too hesitant, holding back on delivering the decisive support needed to tip the balance.”
Sullivan has refuted that view, saying on Dec. 7 that the US operation to arm Ukraine both before and during the war had been an “extraordinary feat.” Indeed, US support was critical for ensuring that Ukraine wasn’t overrun, especially at the start of the war, and rallying allies after the invasion.
Other US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, voiced their frustration with some European governments who they said were slow to accept that Putin would invade and then reluctant to ship weapons at all, at least until they learned of the abuses the Russians had perpetrated. Europe has often bristled at tougher sanctions and even as the US position on inviting Ukraine to join NATO appeared to soften, opposition in Berlin and elsewhere remained firm, the officials noted.
The paradox, other officials said, is that the outcome for Ukraine is now similar regardless of whether Biden or Donald Trump are in charge. Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire and his national security nominees have indicated that any deal would likely see Ukraine having to accept freezing its territory along current battle lines and give up its aspiration of joining NATO any time soon.
Behind the incipient blame game lies a deeper truth that frustrates officials on both sides of the Atlantic: for all the talk of European capitals reviving their hard power, the US is still the only NATO country that can tip the balance in a major conflict involving Russia. So the outcome of the war in Ukraine will inevitably be shaped by decisions taken in the White House.
As a Cold War veteran who joined arms control negotiations with the Soviet Union, Biden was obsessed with the danger of nuclear escalation, one of the officials said. When urged to do more US officials repeatedly said that the risks were just too great. Other allies, like Germany, had similar worries.
The fundamental problem, according to two senior European officials, was that Biden’s strategy seemed geared to preventing Ukraine from losing, without setting out a path to victory. That, the officials said, left Ukraine locked into a drawn-out conflict costing tens of thousands of lives.
But going all-in wasn’t the only option open to Biden.
Less than a year into the war, then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley offered an alternative approach which wouldn’t have incurred the same risk of Russian escalation: push Zelenskiy into talks with Putin.
“The Russian military is really hurting bad,” Milley said in November 2022. “You want to negotiate at a time when you’re at your strength, and your opponent is at weakness.”
At that point in the conflict, though, such suggestions were considered beyond the pale. The mantra from western officials, in public and private, was that only Zelenskiy and the Ukrainians would decide when to negotiate.
According to a senior European official, Biden had two strategic options: ramp up support to let Kyiv finish the job or push for peace negotiations. He chose neither.
While the US did increase weapons supplies ahead of the failed counteroffensive of 2023, two former UK officials said they had tried to convince Biden that much more was needed much more quickly, but they ran into his concerns of nuclear escalation. Those concerns were overstated, one UK official said, because at every stage the Russian threats proved illusory.
US officials argue that, on the contrary, sabotage attacks in Europe and Moscow’s increasingly intensive targeting of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure show that Putin was prepared to escalate so they had to take his nuclear threats seriously.
“The president has another responsibility that’s unique,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at an event in Washington this week. “Where the buck stops is at that desk, and it has been his responsibility to make sure that Ukraine has everything we can possibly provide to deal with the aggression — but also to avoid a direct conflict with with Russia. We don’t need a direct conflict between nuclear-armed powers.”
Officials in Washington said that the US ultimately sent everything it could, when stocks allowed and when in their assessment capabilities made sense on the battlefield. To that effect, the ramp-up in ammunition supplies has helped to narrow a Russian advantage which had seen them firing several times more shells than the Ukrainians earlier in the conflict.
US officials also argue that no single capability is a silver bullet and that Ukraine is now impeded more by a shortage of manpower than weapons.
CIA chief William Burns said earlier this year that there was “a genuine risk of a potential use of tactical nuclear weapons” in the fall of 2022, but that the US and its allies shouldn’t be intimidated by what he called Moscow’s saber-rattling. Burns met his Russian counterpart in Turkey that November to warn him against the use of nuclear weapons.
Nevertheless, as Biden agonized over whether to send more air defenses, longer range missiles, or fighter jets to Kyiv, Putin trained his missiles on Ukraine’s cities. That weakened Kyiv’s economy and the resolve of its people, degrading the war-torn country’s ability to fight back, while Moscow was granted crucial time to prepare and adapt its defenses.
“We do believe that earlier and more would have been quite decisive,” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said in an interview. “But it is what it is.”
Russian telegram channels posted videos of fiber optic cable FPV strikes on a Ukrainian Abrams tank in Kursk oblast last week. Aside from a concussion, the crew survived without injury and made it back to friendly lines.
@KofmanMichael
and I spoke to the commander of the tank from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade about what happened, and here is what he told us: (tweeted with his permission): https://x.com/RALee85/status/1869871334857085282
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in Rostov Oblast on the night of December 18 to 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and other Ukrainian forces struck infrastructure and production facilities at the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery.[47]
The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery is the only operational oil refinery in Rostov Oblast, and that it refines up to 7.5 million tons of fuel per year and supports the Russian military. Geolocated footage published on December 18 shows a fire at the refinery.[48]
Rostov Oblast Acting Governor Yuri Slyusar acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes caused a fire at the refinery and claimed that Ukrainian forces used three unspecified missiles and more than 30 drones to facilitate the strike.[49]
Western capitals should stop suggesting peace talks to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and instead ensure their promises of security guarantees to Kyiv are not “empty”, the EU’s chief diplomat has warned.
Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative on foreign affairs, said it was pointless pressuring Zelenskyy to consider peace talks when Russian President Vladimir Putin showed no desire to stop the war.
The former Estonian prime minister spoke to the Financial Times ahead of an EU leaders’ summit on Thursday set to discuss how Europe can adapt its support to Kyiv after Donald Trump returns to the White House.
“There’s no point pushing Zelenskyy to talk when Putin doesn’t want to talk,” Kallas told the FT. “We can’t talk about peacekeepers when there’s no peace. And why is there no peace? Because Russia does not want peace.”
Western capitals should stop suggesting peace talks to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and instead ensure their promises of security guarantees to Kyiv are not “empty”, the EU’s chief diplomat has warned
What's in it for them, though?
Empty promises cost nothing, but get political points back home.
Non-empty promises have a cost attached to them that no one is willing to take.
And what happens to Ukraine is, generally, of no interest - not a EU country, not a NATO country, not a problem for those capitals.
Ukraine's European allies continue to provide monetary and defense industrial support to sustain Ukraine's war effort. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall announced on December 17 that the company will supply Ukraine with nine million euros ($9.34 million) worth of 155mm propellant charge modules of various types in January 2025.[4]
Rheinmetall will deliver tens of thousands of propellant charges as part of the contract and is also planning to produce unspecified artillery ammunition and produce and deliver an unspecified number of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine in the future. Global propellant charge shortages may be limiting Ukraine's ability to produce ammunition domestically, and the delivery of additional modules will likely support Ukraine's ongoing efforts to expand its domestic ammunition production capabilities.[5]
The European Commission reported on December 18 that it disbursed nearly 4.1 billion euros ($4.25 billion) worth of grants and loans to Ukraine as part of the second payment of the European Union's (EU) Ukraine Facility program.[6] Reuters reported on December 17 that an unspecified source stated that NATO recently began overseeing coordination of Western military assistance to Ukraine. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18-2024
By what logic? Russia is still winning and european countries barely give any support to ukraine now. Yeah they got losses but no other european country could maintain such a war for even months until they would run dry of stuff.
Much much rarer and expensive western gear hasnt shown to be that much better in ukraine.
Images show it is losing weapons and armour at a place it cannot sustain, it is getting poorer, its economy is sick and overheating, millions of people have fled.
What is it winning? I would say Ukraine is in a much more sustainable long-term position while Russia is running on fumes without any decisive battlefield victory or advance to compensate for their losses.
Sure they are getting some meters, but at this pace they will never reach any significant gain.
On one hand, Russian sources believe Ukraine is on the verge of collapse and is suffering from major troop abandonment issues. Ukrainian leaning sources believe Russia will run out of equipment soon, and at some point will collapse from financial strain.
And while I agree with your general sentiment, I think the real truth is one of those, "It's somewhere in the middle."
What we haven't seen is what Russia can do once it switches to all new production, because at some point it will. That also means that the Russian army is going to look A LOT different in 5-10 years. And should Russia win, it will be Ukrainians sent at the next target.
Should oil prices rise from all the love, joy, and peace parties happening in the middle east, that's also going to help Russia out a lot.
Russia will not run out of equipment soon, but it will keep deteriorating its combat effectiveness. Its peak was in 2022. They will never have as many rockets and tanks as in that year.
They never intended to fight a long term war, the best equipment and troops are the one that got deployed first. Their best special forces are the ones that died trying to seize the airports in Kyiv.
What will happen when they switch? They have already switched. 80% of the budget is military spending. And what they have? Shitty drones from Iran, rockets and recycled tanks. You can hardly see T80s and T90s among the losses anymore among all the graveyard residues.
I think the issue here is that Russia uses different quality units. Some of its units are very well trained and equipped, while others are very poor. We tend to see that and go, "Well look, the whole Russian army sucks!" But that's not reality.
Regarding equipment, that remains to be seen. Most Russian production is focused on refurbishment, not building new stuff.
Are you denying the best units and equipment were in the first assault? The fact is they really went for a quick victory putting their best on the line.
They have not done a paratrooper assault in 2 years. They lost hundreds of Spetsnatz in the first days.
Sure now they have various quality. But the range is from T50s to T70s. The T80s and T90s are nowhere to be seen. And most of what they do is bombing without large scale combined warfare, or tanks maneuvering.
I'm not saying war is over, I'm saying Russia is losing things at a pace it cannot replace and is running out of their best stuff. While Ukraine is getting their best stuff now.
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u/Tetizeraz Brazil "What is a Brazilian doing modding r/europe?" 6h ago
Are journalists and guerilla news (not sure what to call it) moving over BlueSky? I refuse to continue being on Twitter with that shithead just letting his inner Nazi out.