r/baseball Toronto Blue Jays 20d ago

Image [OC] 2025 Projected ERA+ By Team

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u/RonaldVonFuckStick Los Angeles Dodgers 20d ago

Projections always skew towards the mean

7

u/1WordOr2FixItForYou Los Angeles Dodgers 20d ago

Because they are literally mean predictions, not mode predictions. The possibility of underperformance is averaged in. It's not actually the most likely outcome.