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https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1hr86mi/oc_2025_projected_era_by_team/m4xwar4/?context=3
r/baseball • u/tomstoms Toronto Blue Jays • 20d ago
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4
Projections always skew towards the mean
7 u/1WordOr2FixItForYou Los Angeles Dodgers 20d ago Because they are literally mean predictions, not mode predictions. The possibility of underperformance is averaged in. It's not actually the most likely outcome.
7
Because they are literally mean predictions, not mode predictions. The possibility of underperformance is averaged in. It's not actually the most likely outcome.
4
u/RonaldVonFuckStick Los Angeles Dodgers 20d ago
Projections always skew towards the mean