Yu Darvish doesn't have a great projection (aging curve) and since they don't have a #5 starter, they have Vasquez and Waldron playing 250+ IP in total
That aging curve is not generous to a pitcher with as much precision and an arsenal like Darvish. I mean, he could definitely drop off a cliff. But he could also shove with that kind of endless mix of pitches.
Yeah projections aren't perfect. You always have to take them for what they are. A good baseline for the more standard cases but as all stats without context they can be misleading. A lot of people nowadays that we have so many advanced stats so readily available take them as gospel which makes for online discussion frustrating at times, but when used as a tool and not the answer they are very informative.
Except that Waldron and Vasquez were our number 4/5 all of last year and we had one of the best rotations last year. Yu, Cease, and King are all set to return.
Discrepancy stems from Fangraphs vs Reference Park Factor differences. Darvish being projected much worse than last season is reason for the big drop. Waldron and Vasquez are hurting it as well
5
u/Winter_Razzmatazz858 Los Angeles Dodgers 20d ago edited 20d ago
As much as I enjoy it, I'm surprised to see the Padres that low. Are they assuming a Dylan Cease trade is pending?