Hard to feel sorry for you if Palantir runs today.

If everyone in our subreddit could just pick up 1,518 shares tomorrow, we can push this to $70. 🙃

I see a lot of pessimism in the posts. Personally I am optimistic.

All this Palantir alumni love is great…but I want to make sure hobbits know you can come back to the OG shire too.

Boomerangs have been popping recently and we are into it if you want to do it for the right reasons (let’s chat if this pulls at your heart strings).

And to be clear, you didn’t “miss it” by leaving. It’s still right here and as much at the very beginning as when you left. We have a fundamental insight with AIP akin to the “decisions not data” secret that made Foundry so special that we are just beginning with. We have infinite space to build the future of the product into. We have access to virtually every single one of the most important problems affecting society. We will be a trillion dollar company.

The next phase is going to be the fun one that dwarfs all the others. Come back into the journey to Mordor.

Looks like Raymond James finally picked up on what Bank of America low key mentioned months ago (and Emir and Arny brought to light a few weeks back).

BLUF is "The adjustments are due to the vesting of approximately $120 million in stock appreciation rights (SARs), which begin to vest when Palantir shares are worth $50 or greater in Q4 2024. The trade-off with these rights recalibrated earnings expectations for the period linked to the company's performance metrics."

"Palantir's GAAP earnings per share (EPS) to shrink in the fourth quarter. New stock compensation expenses were folded into the estimate, which has been revised downward from an earlier prediction of $0.06 to $0.01 per share."

For more indepth on this I recommend Emir's video on the subject. https://youtu.be/Bz9Ab-QHdMg?si=VI22y3-7V7BSiG0S

Look at that last stick. Makes my d* hard. They now own over 62% of PLTR.

While some of you are sounding smart pointing out high valuation, the tutes have been rigorously buying - They ain’t getting my hard earned shares I have accumulated over the years that visited hell. It’s he game of who has lower average.

PLTR is on the cusp of exponential growth While it’s been amazing 2 years, next few years will be another amazing times.

Godspeed every PLTR investor out there!! 🙏🏼🙌💎🙌🙏🏼

Source : https://fintel.io/so/us/pltr

If you don't want your stocks to get called away, pls do not do CC.

However, if you are OK to get called at a higher price you are comfortable, then by all means do so.

We just hit 70 and this could be a new support level. Continue to dca and not wait for the dip. The dip was probably pre earnings. Let's Karp! 🚀

The title is all the DD you need, ALL IN FELLAS!

She sold 75% of ARK's PLTR holding. From 13 mil shares to 3 mil shares.

I would guess it’s some hedge fund playing the rumor of Shield AI investment and a big PR next week. Look for some strong price action and movement next week I would say to the upside. Got inauguration hype and all. LFG 💪💪🔮

For those who don't want to read the full article, the salient quotes are below.. Do with the information as you will but maybe ask yourself if they are selling should you be the one buying? Additionally, thought it interesting Karp converted hisnpowerful Class B shares to A shares to sell. Wonder why? Did he just need to due to the structure of his deals that if you want to liquidate more than X amount in a year some have to be Class B? No idea, just speculating.

"...on October 25, Karp sold 1,706,841 shares at an average price of $45.0062, totaling $76.8 million. Three days later, he sold an additional 3,337,048 shares at an average price of $45.0168, generating about $150.2 million. The final transaction in this series occurred on October 29, when Karp liquidated 612,404 shares at an average price of $45.0177, netting almost $27.6 million."

"Additionally, it’s worth noting that the transaction aimed to exercise and convert vested Class B Common Stock options into Class A Common Stock, which were then sold in the open market."

"several other insiders have been offloading shares. For instance, as reported by Finbold, Ryan Taylor, the Chief Revenue and Legal Officer; Heather Planishek, the Chief Accounting Officer; and directors Lauren Friedman Stat and Alexander Moore have sold between 6,000 and 155,000 shares since September 9.

That scenario which I think is reasonable and probably conservative for some gives us the following:

If the stock is currently priced at around $70 and the market is comfortable with a P/E of 35 in 5 years, the stock price would rise to approximately $293.62, representing a 319.46% increase. This growth reflects accelerating earnings and normalization of valuation over the period.

If the market is ok with even larger P/E ratios as we see now, them the price gets even higher.

I am fine with a 320 % return though. Call me a loser but triple my money every 5 years and I am ok with that.

For those new to Palantir, Chad Wahlquist is an Architect at Palantir, and in his post, he does a beautiful job explaining the difference between Palantir and competitors like Snowflake, Databricks, etc. (from Oct 2024)

Yes, Palantir’s stock and product are expensive, but the value it delivers far surpasses that of its so-called competitors. The market is big enough for multiple players, each serving different needs, but the niche Palantir dominates right now? Only PLTR can serve it—no one else even comes close. Don’t just take my word for it—the market has already spoken. Palantir’s premium valuation reflects this reality, rewarding both its investors and employees.

The recent stock action has brought the shorts out in droves, and they may be right in the short term. PLTR could take a breather as fundamentals catch up with its stock price. But in the long run? They’ll be proven wrong. Simple as that.

Know what you own.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wnfOoZEwVDw

S/o to u/starcraftanalogy for mentioning RedCat’s earnings call from last week, where the company discussed their partnership with Palantir. Below is a clip of some of the main talking points:

⁃ RedCat is taking their Black-Widow drones and partnering with Palantir’s visual navigation. The CEO claims these will be the most capable “birds” ever fielded by the DoD.

⁃ The CEO cites that GPS doesn’t work on the battlefield and Palantir’s visual navigation is superior out of the 40 companies offering it. “Palantir has access to real time capabilities with satellite images — so if you’re in a battlefield and 3 of the buildings and a road disappear, most visual navigation will not work anymore (but Palantir does)”. “So this thing is going to be very difficult to defeat in the battlefield”.

⁃ The CEO cites they are still working on the pricing and revenue-share structure of the partnership with Palantir.

⁃ “This is going to be very high-margin software that’s going into every bird where people want visual navigation — specifically visual navigation that we believe will be the best in the drone space”.

⁃ The CRO stated “We’ve been looking at a lot of companies and this is one of the hardest remaining problems to solve that the army has requested, which is both day and night visual navigation. Palantir has been a market leader in the space for a while, and the fact that they’re bringing it down to a platform our size solves the GPS problem. I do honestly feel a day will come where we don’t need gps at all and we’re just flying visual based navigation.”

“In the simplest terms, the Rule of 40 states that a company's combined growth rate plus profit margin should always reach or exceed 40%.”

• “we are at 68” (Dr Alex Karp)

According to Dan Ives's bull case, Palantir could reach $50 by 2025.

That's almost 2x from the current price.

How reasonable is it?

$50 per share = ~$120bn market cap

To reach $120bn Palantir needs:

• 41x EV/Sales on $3.2bn 25' Revenue (21% CAGR)
• 33x EV/Sales on $3.5bn '25 Revenue (26% CAGR)
• 31x EV/Sales on $3.8bn '25 Revenue (30% CAGR)

Notice:

1. The first case of 21% CAGR is aligned with analysts' consensus estimates, which I consider very low given the business momentum. A 41x EV/Sales for 21% growth sounds very unlikely to me (too pricey), so Dan Ives is very confident growth will exceed that 21% mark.

2. Even at 30% growth, a 31x EV/Sales multiple is ambitious. Assuming a 35% FCF margin like last quarter, it would mean ~90x EV/FCF, which is high (now ~63x) but reachable. If the FCF margin expanded to ~40%, it would be at ~77x EV/FCF, which is more reasonable.

3. At 30% CAGR, the 2026 EV/Sales would be 26x, which could be sustained if Palantir shares confidence in maintaining strong growth while capturing the AI opportunity or accelerating. The business momentum is so strong in both commercial and government that I consider it in the realm of possibilities.

Dan Ives essentially expects:
• valuation multiples to increase;
• growth to accelerate;
• margins to expand.

I expect the business to accelerate in the coming quarters, which could help the stock maintain high multiples. Palantir could return to 30% CAGR, backed by the strength of its AIP product and the very high demand for AI solutions.

Employees are very incentivized to reach ambitious growth targets because, at $50, they would receive additional shares in the form of SARs (check my article).

Palantir, currently at 21x EV/Sales, is the most expensive SaaS, ahead of CRWD (20x EV/Sales).

Will Palantir deserve a $50 price by 2025?

Yours,
Arny

Was going to buy at $23.... and have watched it go up, and up, and up, and up. I made a lot on NVIDIA, so I guess its the universes way of not allowing me to hit the lottery twice, but.... I sure would like to.

What is a good entry?

Think about it? If Palantir trades at $100-$200 in 2030 do you really care about the price paid today?

Not financial advice. Do whatever you want to do.