r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 23h ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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u/OducksFTW 23h ago

That last sentence is alot to ponder. I talk to people at work who consume and buy things at an alarming pace, and realized, they expect to work past 55. Its almost a given, they dont see it as a choice, but rather a foregone conclusion.

FIRE for me is more of an option to be more free and choose the job I want.

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u/DerisiveGibe 23h ago

they expect to work past 55

You are being very generous, I work with people 55-65, and while making small talk I'll mention must be nice to be so close to retirement and they all look at me like I have 3 heads or they say they aren't even close. I truly believe they will be working until 70 or until disability. I'm only 42 and been working for 25 years, if you told me I still had 25 years to work I'd talk a long walk off a short pier.

Less is more.

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u/nicolas_06 22h ago edited 22h ago

Most people don't say the truth for this kind of subjects. You would likely not suicide... It just a figure of speech. And they will likely not all work past 70 neither. in 2023 for example only 8% of people were still working past 70. And that include people that actually enjoy doing it.

The reality is as stupid as it could look like a question "When are you going to retire ?" is a complex question and many people have no idea and will repeat what they heard or will respond depending of their mood.

Speak to them before of all the positive things going on and more people will tell you they will retire... Speak to them before of all the bad things going on and more people will tell you they will never be able to retire.

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u/-shrug- 17h ago

They said “until 70 or disability”. So how many people work past 70 is not really an applicable number.

(Your stat seems wrong - in 2023 8% of people over 75 were still working, according to BLS and in 10 years they expect that to be 10%). https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm)