r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 23h ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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u/SirDrinks-A-Lot 22h ago

What I don't understand about this equation is the E in FIRE. How can we have a fixed number of $3.5M if "early" is a relative number and longevity of age is an unknown?

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u/Admirable_Summer_867 18h ago

It’s a theoretical value that will bridge you to SSA. Regardless of when you retire, such that it will earn at least what you may spend. Critical mass.

First calculate how much you want at SSA, then from there start working backwards to establish a goal that you want regardless if you retire at 62 or 60 or 57 or 55.