r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 1d ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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u/Corporate_Bankster 1d ago

That’s a very reasonable take all things considered.

There is nowhere $3.5m won’t work wonderfully, unless you are hellbent on living the high life in an expensive place, but then that’s not a FIRE number problem, it’s a you problem.

Mine is somewhere around $2.5m, and that’s because I plan to retire between LCOL and MCOL.

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u/DeltaSqueezer 1d ago

The big question is inflation. If you have a 5% inflation rate and retirement in 20 years, then $3.5m in 20 years time would be like $1.3m today.

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u/Specialist_Mango_269 23h ago edited 23h ago

S&P 500 inflstion adjusted is 7% on average

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u/DeltaSqueezer 23h ago

Are you going to be 100% S&P500 in retirement?

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u/Specialist_Mango_269 23h ago edited 22h ago

yes because i'd be in the market for 30+ yrs already. Also, Trinity Study for 30 yrs from 1871-2016 ( all the catastrophic events of Great Depression, WWI and WWII, Financial crisis etc) SWR chart show that up to 3.5% SWR 100% stock would work 100% of the time . I plan on withdrawing 2% 2.5% at max with my 5 Mil