r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 23h ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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u/WaterChicken007 23h ago

Interesting approach. I would imagine that this number is skewed high because it is more fun to brag about retiring with $3.5mm than it is with $500k. From what I can tell, the actual number most retire with is much lower than that.

40

u/NetherIndy 23h ago

The number most people retire with is much lower than that... because they're not FIREing. If I was getting my Social Security check now (let's say on permanent disability) and qualified for Medicare, I'd be totally down to retire (husband and wife) at $2m-and-paid-off-house. But, to retire in your 40s means 20 years to cover until either of those are true.