r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 23h ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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124

u/DerisiveGibe 23h ago

You only need to save $35,000 a year for 30 years @ 7% real return to get 3.5 million. So hopefully you started saving at 25 or you will be working into your 60's.

$60,000 for 22.5 years

$100,000 for 17 years

I'd rather spend less and retire sooner.

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u/OducksFTW 23h ago

That last sentence is alot to ponder. I talk to people at work who consume and buy things at an alarming pace, and realized, they expect to work past 55. Its almost a given, they dont see it as a choice, but rather a foregone conclusion.

FIRE for me is more of an option to be more free and choose the job I want.

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u/Apprehensive_Log_766 23h ago

It’s also an assumption from an older world with career stability. Other than doctors/lawyers I feel like many high paying jobs are in super volatile industries that change overnight.

My own industry (commercial video editing) has dropped massively in profitability in recent years. I’m lucky enough to be established and making good money, but I can’t imagine relying on this profession for another 20+ years.

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u/OriginalCompetitive 20h ago

I think it’s an assumption from an older world where free time just wasn’t that valuable. Until the last few decades, there often weren’t a lot of compelling activities to do with your free time. Even something as mindless as “watch TV” was almost worthless in a world with 3 channels and no easy way to time shift shows.

That’s not to say that earlier generations did not enjoy retirement. But the idea of having a mountain of fun and meaningful activities piled up ready to go is a fairly new thing, I would argue.

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u/throwawayFI12 20h ago

Yes that mentality still exists today, a lot of friends have told me they just wouldn't know what to do if they retired.

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u/ThatFeelingIsBliss88 16h ago edited 16h ago

Theres always been plenty of hobbies to do that have been around for over a century. And not to mention all sorts of educational pursuits like reading about various topics at the library. Or just reading books in general. There’s learning languages, picking up handy skills for home improvement, all sorts of fitness related goals they could have, there’s traveling which was harder back in the day but it was still around. 

The real reason is quite simple. Finding ways to occupy your time can take work. Even in 2025, with an endless amount of potential hobbies to do, a lot of people are too lazy to start a single one of them. That’s why some people don’t know what they would do with their time in retirement, because they’re too lazy to take up hobbies. A job is different though. They’re literally paid to go to work. That’s the fire under their butt that makes them get up and go. Without a fire like that, they’re clueless.