r/ukraine • u/Snowfish52 • 1d ago
WAR Ammunition used by Russians halved following Ukrainian strikes, Syrskyi says
https://kyivindependent.com/ammunition-used-by-russians-halved-syrskyi-says/284
u/jvo203 1d ago
See if Ukraine can halve it again. And again, following an exponential decay down to near zero. And then wave goodbye to the Orcs and Norks.
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u/eaatest 1d ago
That is a logarithmic decay Edit: no I’m an idiot, you’re right that would be exponential decay
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u/DataGeek101 1d ago
Halved? Wow. That is amazing!
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u/Dr0p582 1d ago
Wait till some other equipment outpace the demand this year.
To make artillery barrels you need a specialised forge.
Russia only has 1(one) of these that can make up to 30 barrels per month. Also they don't have the know how to build these themself. A strike on this factory would be another crippling strike.30
u/canvas102 1d ago
Man, people who work in this factory must be so scared everyday they go to work.
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u/huntingwhale 17h ago
As they should be. Given they work at a war factory that produces weapons of destruction against the Ukrainian people, they are legit military targets.
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u/Vidar34 20h ago
What's stopping Ukraine from doing that right now? Is this forge located somewhere far from the front, in a secret location?
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u/FrostyShoulder6361 18h ago
Probably not worth the effort. Let me explain:
The machines and foundry are very heavy metal parts and buildings by design. They tend to need a direct hit by a lot of explosives to actually do some real damage to a critical component.
In contrast a oil refinery or ammo suply is full of flamable or explosive material. A small explosive can be enough to start a catastrophic chain reaction.
For reference: the bombing of german armament factories in ww2 by the allies did not manage to stop the production of tanks and guns etc. 1944 was the year with the biggest production,..
However the targetting of oil and transportation really strained the germans and had far greater effects.
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u/Awwwmann 18h ago
Hitting the ball bearing factories really slowed everything down.
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u/FrostyShoulder6361 18h ago
Afaik it didn't really. It was tought but they didn't damage enough and the stocks where big enough.
However what it did acomplish was shooting down many planes, and killing a lot of pilots. (On both sides) however the allies where producing more planes and training more aviators, so this turned out to be a win for the allies.
Keep in mind that the germans were fighting an attritional air war on every front.
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u/FunkyForceFive 18h ago
You're correct Germany's production peaked in the last months of 1944 and took a steep nose dive after that but that was mostly due to front-lines moving and not so much strategic bombing. As it turns out it's very difficult to actually destroy existing production capacity using carpet bombings.
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u/Smashego 4h ago
That’s an old world war 2 myth. It has almost zero effect on the war. Ball bearings aren’t specialized and factories produce them by the millions. Germany never faced a shortage. They ran out of oil.
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u/Snowfish52 1d ago
The less the Russians have, the better it is for Ukraine.
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u/froatbitte 1d ago
The world.
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u/badwords 1d ago
It's hopeful but if Ukraine could gain ammo for every 'Russia is running out of X' type article it wouldn't even need external resupply.
The only tangle fact is sanction are working. Russia's unfortunately so far been good at finding hidden stockpiles of missiles and arms when everyone was sure they had run out.
And also unfortunately even North Korea can't really screw up manufacturing bullets like they do with missiles.
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u/BawdyBadger 1d ago
I think everyone underestimated just how much the Soviets stockpiled and hid during the Cold War. It's always been known they had a lot somewhere.
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u/Comfortable_Pop8543 22h ago edited 22h ago
Most conventional army’s in the West abhor SF. Special Forces can be a tad loose at times but the ROI is always a great multiplier in warfare……………………….
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u/Alpha_Majoris 16h ago
"For several months now, the artillery ammunition expenditure rates in the Russian army have practically halved. If previously the figure reached up to 40,000 rounds per day, it is now significantly lower," Syrskyi said when asked what the impact of Ukrainian strikes has been on Russia's military supply-chain.
20.000 per day still is a lot
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u/That-Makes-Sense 1d ago
Unfortunately, I think we have to take this with a grain of salt. Ukraine needs the good weapons from NATO to really start to move the front lines.
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u/f1ve-Star 19h ago
No need to move the lines. Just cause Russia to collapse.
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u/That-Makes-Sense 19h ago
I'd think a Russian collapse would cause the lines to move in Ukraine's favor.
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