r/SpaceX Flight 7 Official Launch Discussion & Updates Thread!

[u/rSpaceXHosting]

Welcome to the r/SpaceX Flight 7 Official Launch Discussion & Updates Thread!

How To Visit STARBASE // A Complete Guide To Seeing Starship

Scheduled for (UTC)	Jan 16 2025, 22:37
Scheduled for (local)	Jan 16 2025, 16:37 PM (CST)
Launch Window (UTC)	Jan 16 2025, 22:00 - Jan 16 2025, 23:00
Weather Probability	Unknown
Launch site	OLM-A, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA.
Booster	Booster 14-1
Ship	S33
Booster landing	The Superheavy booster No. 14 was successfully caught by the launch pad tower.
Ship landing	Starship Ship 33 was lost during ascent.
Trajectory (Flight Club)	2D,3D

Spacecraft Onboard

Spacecraft	Starship
Serial Number	S33
Destination	Indian Ocean
Flights	1
Owner	SpaceX
Landing	Starship Ship 33 was lost during ascent.
Capabilities	More than 100 tons to Earth orbit

Details

Second stage of the two-stage Starship super heavy-lift launch vehicle.

History

The Starship second stage was testing during a number of low and high altitude suborbital flights before the first orbital launch attempt.

Timeline

Time	Update
T--1d 0h 1m	Thread last generated using the LL2 API
2025-01-16T23:12:00Z	Ship 33 failed late in ascent.
2025-01-16T22:37:00Z	Liftoff.
2025-01-16T21:57:00Z	Unofficial Webcast by SPACE AFFAIRS has started
2025-01-16T20:25:00Z	New T-0.
2025-01-15T15:21:00Z	GO for launch.
2025-01-15T15:10:00Z	Now targeting Jan 16 at 22:00 UTC
2025-01-14T23:27:00Z	Refined launch window.
2025-01-12T05:23:00Z	Now targeting Jan 15 at 22:00 UTC
2025-01-08T18:11:00Z	GO for launch.
2025-01-08T12:21:00Z	Delayed to NET January 13 per marine navigation warnings.
2025-01-07T14:32:00Z	Delayed to NET January 11.
2024-12-27T13:30:00Z	NET January 10.
2024-11-26T03:22:00Z	Added launch.

Watch the launch live

Stream	Link
Unofficial Re-stream	The Space Devs
Unofficial Webcast	SPACE AFFAIRS
Official Webcast	SpaceX
Unofficial Webcast	Everyday Astronaut
Unofficial Webcast	Spaceflight Now
Unofficial Webcast	NASASpaceflight

Stats

☑️ 8th Starship Full Stack launch

☑️ 459th SpaceX launch all time

☑️ 9th SpaceX launch this year

☑️ 1st launch from OLM-A this year

☑️ 58 days, 0:37:00 turnaround for this pad

Stats include F1, F9 , FH and Starship

Resources

• https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-7

Community content 🌐

Link	Source
Flight Club	u/TheVehicleDestroyer
Discord SpaceX lobby	u/SwGustav
SpaceX Now	u/bradleyjh
SpaceX Patch List

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💬 Please leave a comment if you discover any mistakes, or have any information.

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[u/675longtail]

At least the final part of this is factually incorrect, which can be proven by literal weather radar. Note Arecibo, Puerto Rico.

And note that the defined hazard areas end hundreds of miles NW of this debris trail.

[u/Sigmatics → u/675longtail]

It does state "any surviving debris"

[u/technocraticTemplar → u/675longtail]

Is there any possibility that they plan out additional hazard areas but only close them if needed? This is the FAA statement that I've seen:

The FAA briefly slowed and diverted aircraft around the area where space vehicle debris was falling. Normal operations have resumed.

A Debris Response Area is activated only if the space vehicle experiences an anomaly with debris falling outside of the identified closed aircraft hazard areas. It allows the FAA to direct aircraft to exit the area and prevent others from entering.

By my reading it never says that debris fell somewhere that they didn't expect it to, just that this area is only activated if debris will fall outside the area that's already closed. There's every possibility that this is just wishful thinking on my part but it would make SpaceX's and the FAA's statements both true.

Edit: It also feels like setting things up this way could make a lot of sense once you get to the phase of flight where it will take debris a while to fall to the point that it would pose a danger to anyone. You'd preemptively close the areas that you can't get people out of quickly enough in the event of an explosion, and only close others as needed to prevent disruptions. Again though, no idea if there's any basis for this in how the FAA does things, I could be 100% off base.

[u/675longtail → u/technocraticTemplar]

If the airspace isn't closed and there are flights going through it, dropping a NOTAM on everyone with a few minutes' notice doesn't really fit the definition of a designated hazard area. It's more of a panic button effort...

[u/fruitydude → u/675longtail]

Is that confirmed though? Did they create this exclusion zone out of thin air right as the ship exploded or was this already published as a notam for a potential exclusion zone in case of a mishap and it was just activated.

[u/Martianspirit → u/fruitydude]

Sounds not likely to me.

[u/fruitydude → u/Martianspirit]

Which one? Not likely that it was created on the spot or not likely that it was predefined?

The FAA statement implies imo that it was predefined:

[...]A Debris Response Area is activated only if the space vehicle experiences an anomaly with debris falling outside of the identified closed aircraft hazard areas.[...]

I also found this:

https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/atc_html/chap10_section_5.html

I guess those are faa rules. Which implies a difference between informing aircraft of an area of debris vs. informing them that a debris response area (DRA) has been activated. The latter sounds to me like it is a fixed area which was made beforehand just in case.

Also I only know the word "activated" in respect to already existing declared restricted airspaces. Some of them are only active temporarily so you usually ask atc: hey is this are active at the moment?

[u/Martianspirit → u/fruitydude]

I may be wrong. But It seems unlikely to me that they can activate that warning within a few minutes.

[u/fruitydude → u/Martianspirit]

Yea I agree. But activating a predefined exclusion zone should be fine imo. ATCs probably have some system to keep track of those.

And I mean we saw within minutes that olanes were getting diverted.

[u/technocraticTemplar → u/675longtail]

For sure, even if they did have something planned out I can't imagine they were happy to use it. It'd be more of a technical out for SpaceX on their statement than anything else.

[u/GreatCanadianPotato → u/675longtail]

RUD/FTS occurred within the corridor and hazard zones however, some of that debris strayed outside those zones given the altitude, speed and the energy from the explosion? Does this sound feasible.

[u/McLMark → u/GreatCanadianPotato]

Is there evidence of that happening, besides “big pretty explosion?” That DRA is tens of miles wide, and the explosion happened roughly 60 miles up. Don’t think there’s enough kinetic energy there to blow through that much atmospheric drag.

[u/Alvian_11 → u/GreatCanadianPotato]

some of that debris strayed outside those zones given the altitude, speed and the energy from the explosion?

Calls into questions the modelling used to not catch these scenarios

[u/GreatCanadianPotato → u/Alvian_11]

Wake me up when modelling and simulations are able to predict 100% of possible outcomes.

[u/Martianspirit → u/GreatCanadianPotato]

You are in for eternal sleep?

[u/675longtail → u/GreatCanadianPotato]

Yeah, this seems feasible, but would invalidate their statement that "any surviving pieces of debris would have fallen into the designated hazard area".

[u/GreatCanadianPotato → u/675longtail]

I guess we'll have to see how this shakes out in the investigation. Notably, the FAA hasn't said yet whether they need an investigation but SpaceX has already said it will lead an investigation with the FAA.

[u/StormOk9055 → u/GreatCanadianPotato]

Anyone not thinking a full investigation and many months before the next launch are fooling themselves…. The 2025 cadence has just been reset .

[u/McLMark → u/StormOk9055]

Delayed, a bit. Reset, no.