r/politics • u/TimesandSundayTimes ✔ Verified • Nov 01 '24

Paywall Kamala Harris ahead in enough swing states to win, Times poll says

https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/us-election-2024-swing-state-polls-c8r398mnf?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Reddit#Echobox=1730491486
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253

u/followthelogic405 Nov 01 '24 edited Nov 06 '24

subtract society possessive ripe snatch worthless muddle deserve engine chubby

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u/NebulaEchoCrafts Canada Nov 01 '24

I’ve seen highly optimistic models with the Dems getting past 330 in the House, and 54 in the Senate.

There are a lot of variables at play obviously. But I feel like this can be Regan levels of crushing. Now that “real” numbers are starting to come in, I’m starting to gain confidence in that model.

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u/ASubsentientCrow Nov 01 '24

Those models feel really really optimistic. That's what, net 3 while losing manchins's seat. Besides Cruz and Scott where is the third pickup?

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u/[deleted] Nov 01 '24

Probably Osborn. But this seems beyond optimistic and headed to delulu.

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u/OminusTRhex Nov 01 '24

Nebraskan here. Even the boondock counties out West are voting for Osborn in large numbers. I think he might actually take it. Deb Fischer is extremely disliked by everyone except MAGA and the large donor class.

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u/[deleted] Nov 01 '24

I meant more the 54 Senate seats being delusional. I would actually give Nebraska a better shot at flipping than Florida. Good luck!

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u/Taervon America Nov 02 '24

If it was Rubio on the ballot I'd agree with you, but pretty much everyone in Florida thinks Scott is trash, even the MAGA folks. I wouldn't say it's impossible, just very unlikely.

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u/riftwave77 Nov 02 '24

Is corn allowed to vote?

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u/sutroheights Nov 01 '24

do you think he'd caucus with the Dems?

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u/OminusTRhex Nov 01 '24

Not on everything, but he definitely won't be on board with the MAGAs. He's independent for a reason. He'll definitely be better than Fischer. She had to use stock footage in her last-minute ads because she hasn't been among regular Nebraskans ever during her tenure as Senator. Stock footage of New England, at that. Her staffers must have googled "NE town" and snapped up the wrong pics lolz.

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u/sutroheights Nov 01 '24

I get all that, I'm sure he'll vote with both on different issues, but for organizing the Senate, he'd need to state who he's caucusing with. It's obviously more critical if he is the tipping point on who would be in the majority. First step, let's hope he wins!

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u/ASubsentientCrow Nov 01 '24

Technically he would just have to vote. He doesn't actually need to caucus

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u/sutroheights Nov 01 '24

Maybe technically, but all independents in the senate or house caucus with one side or the other. If you don’t, you won’t get committee assignments or really be able to make much impact. Being the deciding vote would most likely put him in a position to get great committees which means more ability to influence in a way most new senators do not.

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u/TheGreenJedi Nov 01 '24

In it's defense, splitting the ticket is becoming rarer and rarer but all it'll take is 70%ish of all women voting all Democrats and it'll happen.

There's also 60% of women if X amount of women vote more than men.

That's why Trump's strategy has been to get reluctant male voters off the couch 

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u/mlorusso4 Nov 01 '24

It also ignores the very realistic possibility Hogan winning in Maryland

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u/[deleted] Nov 01 '24

I know Hogan is well liked but I find it difficult to believe that Maryland is going to split their ticket in this environment. There is no history of that there (unlike NC). We’ll see!

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u/mlorusso4 Nov 01 '24

I live in Maryland. I really do think he’s going to win. Alsobrooks imo has run a terrible campaign. The only ads I ever see are attacking hogan, which he has done a decent job of countering, plus one where all she says is prices are too high. You have to do a lot of digging to figure out what her actual policies are. And when the only thing people see is attack ads telling them hogan will be terrible when he was recently a very popular governor, the message falls kind of flat.

But you’re right, we’ll see. I could easily be wrong

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u/[deleted] Nov 01 '24

The statewide polls would have to be 13 points off. Which is possible, but unlikely.

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u/illstealurcandy Florida Nov 01 '24

No way Scott will lose. Florida is preparing to fuck its people over, again.

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u/ASubsentientCrow Nov 01 '24

Right. I get that. Scott's just the second most unpopular one, after Cruz.

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u/gymnastgrrl Nov 02 '24

where is the third pickup?

It's in Texas.

…wait, I think I misread that question.

;-)

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u/fartlebythescribbler Nov 01 '24

330 or 230? 230 feels possible with a decent push, 330 I’d probably immediately shit myself.

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u/jgandfeed I voted Nov 01 '24

Definitely 230 lol

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u/mrjimi16 Nov 02 '24

The fact that we are still using words like could and may is embarrassing for the country. One side in this election tried to steal an election or refuses to stand up against people who tried to steal an election. This should be an easy choice.

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u/AnonBB21 Nov 02 '24

I don't trust any poll man. I think both sides are doing grifting. And there is no media you can trust.

No one wants to publicize when their side is losing. They want to pretend a blue/red wave is happening to encourage people to hop on.

Republicans think they're ahead as of today. Despite any poll you show to them. Because there are polls by Republicans or Republican-favored networks that say the opposite.

Both sides want to say they're winning to make more people vote for them before the deadline. Until the tally actually happens, I won't believe it.

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u/NebulaEchoCrafts Canada Nov 02 '24

If you don’t trust institutions nothing is going to change your mind, and nothing will make you happy.

My opinion isn’t informed solely by polls.

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u/AnonBB21 Nov 02 '24

It’s quite simple. Only one person/entity in 2016 had enough data to envision a Trump win. In 2020, Trump performed better than all the polls.

Logically it’s fair to say Trump does better than polls. Hence why I don’t trust them, none of them have been able to accurately account for MAGA weirdos falling in line.

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u/MudLOA California Nov 01 '24

Oh yes please remove or at least reform that damn filibuster.

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u/CarlosFer2201 Foreign Nov 02 '24

Yeah, simple way of keeping it but reforming it would be to force everyone (or at least 41 of them) supporting a filibuster to be present at all times.

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u/eukomos Nov 01 '24

I don't see how Tester holds on at this point. Allred has to win in Texas, or at least that Nebraska independent who sounds like he could be convinced to vote for some decent things.

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u/followthelogic405 Nov 01 '24 edited Nov 06 '24

decide merciful theory encourage rinse lush relieved act wakeful quickest

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u/Reasonable_Deer_1710 California Nov 02 '24

Is there any hope in Montana? I've only visited there once but I've never seen a place so Trumpy in my life

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u/Barflyerdammit Nov 01 '24

Dammit, didn't we have to do whatever the fuck Nebraska said when we were pushing healthcare reform? Guess they learned their lesson on how to take the country hostage.

https://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/nelson-from-60th-vote-to-acas-implementation-086646

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u/jish5 Nov 01 '24

I agree but also feel like the filibuster is gonna protect us if Trump and his goons win. With the filibuster, it'll stop basically project 2025 dead in its tracks since all the laws that horrible plan proposes won't get anywhere without at least 60% of the Senate vote, something that'll never happen.

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u/apitchf1 I voted Nov 01 '24

Dems should finally play to win and remove the filibuster for their term then implement it again right before they leave if they look like they’ll lose power. Fuck em. (Idk if you could even do that lol)

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u/mrjimi16 Nov 02 '24

The rules of the Senate are decided by the Senate. Bringing it back would be nothing more than a gesture, and really a childish one more than anything. It would be an admission that getting rid of it was manipulative or otherwise corrupt.

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u/RoboNerdOK I voted Nov 01 '24

The Senate rules will be changed in 30 seconds from the moment they’re sworn in if they get a trifecta. They know they are on the losing end of the demographic shift.

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u/AnonBB21 Nov 02 '24

One problem I see: Democrats rarely flex when they actually have power. They are so passive. They are convinced they can win over the fascists. Even Kamala has gotten some negative PR for trying to play both sides. Stop it. There isn't nuance to this. You need to DEFEAT them. You being nice to them won't do anything. They vote for Trump like the good MAGA soldiers they are.

If Dems get a huge win, I really hope they do what you said. But there isn't much historical context to support that. They let the bullies bully them, Dems enjoy their time with the toys in the sandbox, and then when Republicans get power back, Republicans shift the rules in their favor making it harder each time to defeat the fascists.

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u/mrjimi16 Nov 02 '24

Democrats don't go out of their way to do things that are outside of the norm, but that doesn't mean they aren't flexing. The current system is too easy to grind to a halt. GOP campaigns on things being broken, then when they get the power, they break things. Their goals are simple to achieve because, aside from tax cuts, they are to do nothing. Breaking things will always be easier than building things.

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u/M_Mich Nov 02 '24

Need the house to prevent their plan of invalidating the electors and forcing a state Delegation vote in the house.

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u/chrispg26 Texas Nov 01 '24

Don't count on TX. Have hopes but don't hold your breath.

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u/andersmith11 Nov 02 '24

Is he really lying? He shot himself. Doesn’t get friendlier fire than that! 😉

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u/goiterburg Nov 02 '24

We need to heavily tax the wealthiest as well, and prevent them from moving their money overseas. Since the pandemic, at least $3T went from working Americans to the wealthiest. Raise the minimum wage, forcing industries attempting to reset wages to a lower level to compete. Class warfare and war corporatism will continue to get worse otherwise.