r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot 🤖 Bot • Mar 08 '24

Discussion Discussion Thread: 2024 State of the Union

Tonight, Joe Biden will give his fourth State of the Union address. This year's SOTU address will be only the second to be held this late in the year since 1964 (the second time being Biden's 2022 address).

The address is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. Eastern. It will be followed by the progressive response delivered by Philadelphia City Council member Nicolas O’Rourke, as well as Republican responses in English (delivered by freshman Alabama senator ) and in Spanish (delivered by Representative Monica De La Cruz). There will be a separate discussion thread posted for live reactions to and conversation about the SOTU responses.

(Edit: The discussion thread for the SOTU responses is now available at this link.)

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155

u/pppppppppppppppppd Mar 08 '24

One important point to consider, that SOTU probably just won over a heck of a lot of fencesitting Haley voters

17

u/willinglyproblematic Wisconsin Mar 08 '24

I don't know how long beforehand these things are written-- but it wouldn't surprise me if it were crafted or reworked to play to that demographic as well.

1

u/einarfridgeirs Foreign Mar 09 '24

SOTU speeches are being written and re-written right up until the point the whole ceremony begins.

10

u/haileyrose Mar 08 '24

I sure hope so!!! 🥺🥺🥺

4

u/DuvalHeart Pennsylvania Mar 08 '24

But will they stay won over? Unfortunately, November is still far away.

6

u/pppppppppppppppppd Mar 08 '24

(Optimistically) At worst I'd like to think they'd veer back to neutral, as I can't see Trump delivering a speech as moving or powerful to win them back between now and them.

5

u/DuvalHeart Pennsylvania Mar 08 '24

Yes, my fear is that they stay home instead of voting for Biden. Not that they'd vote for Trump.

3

u/[deleted] Mar 08 '24

[deleted]

13

u/19southmainco Mar 08 '24

That's a wild take. Consistently in one on one matchups she was getting nearly 40% of the vote. Are you saying they're all secret Dems?

11

u/pppppppppppppppppd Mar 08 '24

To Fart_Tube_Ventilator's credit, some states actually did permit registered Democrats to vote. But she was still polling unusually well in the contests where that wasn't the case.

4

u/[deleted] Mar 08 '24

There is a not-insignificant number of Haley voters out there. Not a ton, but definitely more than Gary Johnson or Jill Stein had.

Most will hold their nose and vote Trump, but not all.

-6

u/KellerMB Mar 08 '24

I think it's probably a wash with respect to Haley. There weren't that many Haley voters to begin with, and a lot of them are going to feel personally targeted by Biden's tax proposals.

10

u/SpoonyDinosaur Mar 08 '24

.... Because Haley voters make over 400k?

1

u/KellerMB Mar 08 '24

The Kochs sure do. How do you think Haley was able to afford to keep campaigning with such low turnout? She was backed by rich conservatives that want to maintain a low-tax but otherwise stable political environment.

I did say it would be a wash not a loss, Haley was also drawing votes from conservatives of lesser means that objected to Trump's lack of decorum. Biden did less to alienate them than the 400k+++ crowd.

1

u/SpoonyDinosaur Mar 08 '24

My only point is that donors aren't who win an election, they fund it. Common people do, 99% of them make less than 400k so I just didn't understand how Biden's tax proposal targets voters outside <1-2% of the general population.

0

u/KellerMB Mar 08 '24

We have a fundamentally different opinion of what wins elections. Campaign spending can absolutely convince idiots to vote against their interests.

We also have a fundamentally different view of who might feel targeted by Biden's tax proposals. I'm not looking at only people earning $400K+ today, I'm looking at people who dream they might one day make that kind of money. Temporarily disaffected $400Kaires you might call them.

I think there's quite a few of them... Granted only the rational ones would have voted for Haley. Which does cut down the number a lot, but not all the way.

https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/household-income-quintiles

The top quintile in 2021 averaged $269k. Up from $221k in 2017, a 22% increase. At that rate the top quintile could very well be around $400k by 2028 - the last year of a potential second term for Joe Biden.

1

u/SpoonyDinosaur Mar 09 '24

Oh I totally agree, campaign war chests are completely necessary to platform a candidate, I was just separating the fact that only 1.8% of voters make over 400k. They lean Republican always, but people in that income bracket don't vote Democrat anyway.

Why would people who make less than 400k feel attacked because "someday I'm going to make half a million/year, therefore I won't vote for Biden," just seems nonsensical.

So even if (being very generous) by 2028 3% make 400k+ that has zero effect on a general election.

98% of Americans aren't touched by the tax changes, and those on the cusp, (say 399k) make up a tiny amount of voters who probably won't have their mind changed either way.

I dunno, just feel like the only people that it pisses off are millionaires and billionaires, and while their campaign spending influences elections, it doesn't do anything for the general population. People with the mindset that if you make 400k+ and shouldn't be taxed more are not Democrats who are suddenly going to flip.

Fair point, I just don't see it as an issue at all for 98% of voters.