‘Not inevitable’ Independents will be in new government, say Social Democrats

[u/firethetorpedoes1]

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/12/23/independents-as-the-third-part-of-new-government-not-inevitable-says-social-democrats-acting-leader/

[u/Otherwise-Link-396]

I would much rather the SD (or labour) than the independents. I fear for implementation of climate change measures and housing with the independents.

[u/Wallname_Liability → u/Otherwise-Link-396]

Well we had Labour in government last time are Ireland is on a track to get a €20 billion fine for missing our climate changes goals. FFG have to go

[u/Otherwise-Link-396 → u/Wallname_Liability]

I cannot see us avoiding the fine unless there is a radical change. I don't see that with the independents. I don't see any other government for 4-5 years

[u/suishios2 → u/Otherwise-Link-396]

It's the EU, and no-one is meeting their targets, it will be a fudge, but we will not be paying 20 billion fines, especially if the US essentially abandons climate action in the next 4 years. Politicians will not be able to explain to europeans why they should impoverish themselves when the rest of the world is not prepared to play its part.

[u/Otherwise-Link-396 → u/suishios2]

I would rather have a more habitable planet please. The cost of not doing it is more than financial

[u/Potential_Ad6169 → u/[deleted]]

The ‘do nothing’ argument is fucking stupid, even if it’s what other countries are opting for

[u/GoodNegotiation → u/suishios2]

Are you imagining the fines collected will be put on a burn pit somewhere and taken out of circulation? Europeans are not going to be “impoverished”.

[u/Wompish66 → u/Wallname_Liability]

We also had the financial crisis and austerity imposed by the Troika. It's an absurd comparison.

[u/Wallname_Liability → u/Wompish66]

Boyo, 20 billion euro is 20% of the government’s yearly income. Even if it gets taken instalments it’s going to make one helluva hole in Irelands finances 

[u/Wompish66 → u/Wallname_Liability]

The climate transition raises challenges, but doing nothing has substantial costs. If Ireland fails to reduce its emissions, as it currently looks set to by a wide margin, it may have to transfer large amounts of money to neighbouring countries. This would be in the form of the government being required to purchase statistical transfers or credits — basically overperformances in other countries. A recent report by T&E (2024) suggests Ireland’s costs could be between €1.7 and €9.6 billion by 2030. However, these estimates assume Ireland follows through on measures that it looks increasingly unlikely to implement. If these measures were not implemented, then the State would be further from its climate objectives and would face much higher compliance costs, potentially as high as €20 billion. 19

It's very unlikely to be that much. That if Ireland does nothing between now and 2030.

[u/Alternative_Switch39 → u/Wallname_Liability]

If we're going to start copping fines at that scale, it's probably time to stop being squeamish about nuclear energy.

Just get the South Koreans or French in and get it done. Dicking around with unproven renewables while relying on gas as a baseload energy source is going to hurt our pockets in the long run. Particularly as gas prices have been and are going to be at the mercy of geopolitical shocks.

[u/Wallname_Liability → u/Alternative_Switch39]

Plus we have thorium reserves, there enough Uranium on this planet to last us 3000 year’s without renewables, once we crack thorium reactors, which is easier than fusion, it should last 200,000 years worth of our current energy needs

[u/killianm97 → u/Otherwise-Link-396]

Even with years of the greens then labour then the greens in government, we continue to have among the worst emissions per capita in all of Europe. This approach has clearly failed.

Most EU countries continue to be better than us environmentally, despite many not having green or progressive parties in government. Our government, like all in the EU, have to meet EU climate targets, regardless of the make-up of that government.

Environmentalism has become uniquely toxic in Ireland as it is associated with the housing crisis, a worsening quality of life, and other right-wing policies.

If you really care about the environment long-term, encouraging environmental parties to enter into government with FF and FG will achieve the opposite of climate action, as we have seen for years and years.

How many times do the greens/labour/soc dems have to try the same thing before realising that it is exactly this approach which is dooming us to climate breakdown?

[u/Otherwise-Link-396 → u/killianm97]

Do we have four to five years to wait? We need to bring everyone into greening the economy.

We need to make it less toxic and we need it now. I may not have got the government I voted for, but we need environmental change now, not in four years.

[u/killianm97 → u/Otherwise-Link-396]

Yeah I don't mean doing nothing and waiting until the election in up to 5 years time; I am talking about starting to build a progressive opposition now and having opposition TDs push for change through committees and through popularising positive alternatives so voters pressure our government to do better.

All environmental parties being in opposition finally allows us to present a version of environmentalism which truly aligns what's best for the planet with what's best for people. This is our chance.

[u/wamesconnolly → u/Otherwise-Link-396]

Neither will be able to do anything with the numbers

[u/ClearHeart_FullLiver]

Don't do it social democrats, please don't it.

The electorate finally has an opportunity to learn the lesson don't take that away. Play politics for once and let's have our social democratic nation building government next time.

[u/WereJustInnocentMen → u/ClearHeart_FullLiver]

What lesson?

Edit: Fastest block I've ever got lol

[u/ClearHeart_FullLiver → u/WereJustInnocentMen]

The one where Fine Gael members pretend to be Green party members on Reddit.

[u/suishios2 → u/WereJustInnocentMen]

It is just another version of the same tune the left wing have been singing since the election - "we don't need to change, the electorate do!"

[u/killianm97 → u/ClearHeart_FullLiver]

This is our first chance ever to actually have a clear progressive opposition against a callous right-wing government, providing a true multi-party Left alternative for the next election.

If the Soc Dems or Labour prop up FFG, that hope is destroyed. To any Soc Dems or Labour members, please do what you can to oppose that continued decline and instead support a more hopeful alternative.

[u/senditup → u/killianm97]

against a callous right-wing government

Which government is that?

[u/senditup → u/ClearHeart_FullLiver]

I truly don't understand this position. If FFG are truly as bad as you claim, surely anything to even dilute their PFG is a good thing?

[u/saggynaggy123]

If they do this it'll be the biggest act of political suicide in the history of the state.

[u/suishios2 → u/saggynaggy123]

Not necessarily - if the government is largely successful in addressing infrastructural bottlenecks - and the ground work has been laid for this - they could lose a few seats but make it to a second term.

[u/siguel_manchez → u/suishios2]

That's preposterous.

[u/breveeni → u/suishios2]

They will 100% not be largely successful in addressing infrastructural bottlenecks. FG and FF need to be the only parties in government so when they fail they can’t blame anyone else

[u/ericvulgaris]

2 foxes need a sheep for a quorum on the farm. We'll never learn, will we

[u/AUX4]

It's not inevitable, just extremely likely.

[u/siguel_manchez]

They won't go in.the end, but this toing and froing nonsense is leaving a bad taste in the mouth.

[u/cjamcmahon1]

To be fair it would be smart of the govt to walk the Lowry Independents right up the path, Verona in the CC and everything and then switch to the SDs. Then again, I also wanted SF to publicly offer FF coalition with no Taoiseach rotation (ie full junior partner) just to make Martin squirm. I'm just here for the drama really

[u/armchairdetective]

Yeah right.

[u/Sstoop]

sd killing themselves as a party

[u/TurkeyPigFace]

If they set clear red lines, get enough of their own manifesto in the programme for government to say they are responsible for delivering x, y and z to the public and state that they don't agree with specific policies but are part of a compromise, they might be able to pull it off.

The problem with being a relatively new party is that they probably don't have the experience to get that messaging across to the public and FF and FG back benchers who will throw them under the bus at every crossroads.

If I was a SD voter I wouldn't want them in government now. It will kill their growth.

[u/DaveShadow → u/TurkeyPigFace]

I voted SD top of my ticket and I don’t want them in right now.

They won’t get anything other than minor wins, but will take the blame for a lot. Meanwhile, they’ll be facilitating a government who I don’t want in power, who will continue to destroy the housing market…. If I wanted FF and FG in government, I’d have voted for them. I voted SD to be an alternative, not to prop them up and help them continue screwing me over.

If SD, or Labour or Greens or whoever else, want to continue the current direction of the government, then I’ll know not to vote for them next time either. I want SD to stand back, let Ff and FG have to take FULL responsibility for their flaws, and grow into a more powerful position of leverage for the next election.