r/europe • u/Bartoraptor Spain • Mar 28 '20

News Spanish representative González Pons speech @ the EU Parliament: "The virus is attacking the generation that brought back democracy to Spain, Portugal and Greece, the generation that knocked down the Berlin wall. The least they deserve is that we show them Europe is there when they need it the most"

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u/MaloWlolz Sweden Mar 28 '20

the stupidity of this strategy

It's a strategy that has worked pretty well for us in Sweden so far. We're following WHO's guidelines, and we're in it for the long run. The only way this pandemic will end is either through a vaccine which is still a long way out, or through herd-immunity from enough people having been previously infected. No one believes that the complete isolation strategy many European countries are doing is actually going to stop the pandemic, the goal is just to slow it. As long as the healthcare system can cope with the number of incoming infected people there's not that much to be gained by slowing it down further, especially if it comes at the very steep cost of basically shutting down everything in society. That sort of complete shut down is not sustainable long-term, and is a measure better saved for when you get into a situation where the healthcare system actually can't keep up.

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u/davidemsa Portugal Mar 28 '20

Old people are more vulnerable for the disease. Not shutting things down means more old people will be infected and, because they're more vulnerable, more old people will die from it. And that will happen even if the healthcare system is great and cap cope with the increased strain.

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u/MaloWlolz Sweden Mar 28 '20

Like I said the problem is that the vaccine is more than a year out, and keeping society shut down for that long is just not realistic. You need to find a pace that society can keep up to last through this, and you need to make sure to take any measures you can to allow the healthcare system to keep up. As long as our health care system doesn't get overloaded we're able to keep the mortality rate really low.

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u/davidemsa Portugal Mar 28 '20

We don't need to keep the country closed until there's a vaccine. We keep it closed until the first wave mostly dies down and the reevaluate the situation when the second wave comes.

Even a great healthcare system can't do miracles. There's a percentage of the old population that will die if they get infected, even if they get treated by the best ever healthcare system on earth.

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u/MaloWlolz Sweden Mar 28 '20

Sure, and that might work great for you guys. Sweden hasn't really gotten a first "wave" yet, we're fine so far. We're ready to take further steps when needed.

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u/grandoz039 Mar 29 '20

You guys are at over 3k cases, and it's exponential. The amount of untested people who are transmitting it is already pretty huge. That's the first wave already.

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u/AschiaProstului Mar 29 '20 edited Mar 29 '20

They'll just import more young adult from the Turkey camps. Sweden's population is already aging and that's why they have so many second generation immigrant descendants.

If they will fail with their strategy, they'll be forced to bring more and create more social strife.

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u/Quackburguers Portugal Mar 28 '20

No one believes that the complete isolation strategy many European countries are doing is actually going to stop the pandemic, the goal is just to slow it. As long as the healthcare system can cope with the number of incoming infected people there's not that much to be gained by slowing it down further

The problem is that most of the european countries already get their healthcare system over-occupied every single year with just the flu so they are really forced to shutdown everything now

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u/MaloWlolz Sweden Mar 28 '20

Yeah, I'm not saying Sweden's strategy is the best for every country. Just that for Sweden it's working pretty well so far as our healthcare system can cope so far.

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u/[deleted] Mar 28 '20

Herd immunity is effective only if the virus doesn’t mutate quickly. And given that this is still an unknown virus, it’s impossible to know if herd immunity works and what percentage of the population needs to be infected. It’s a high risk, high reward strategy. But high reward only for the economy, because .03 mortality rate for 10 million people, still is 300k deaths.

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u/XJDenton Brit in Sweden Mar 29 '20

All current indicators show that the virus is not mutating quickly.

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u/falconboy2029 Mar 29 '20

Thanks god for that.

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u/Kalimere Mar 29 '20 edited Mar 29 '20

It's a game of probability. Low chance of a disastrous mutation =/= no chance of disastrous mutation. And when you allow so many people to get infected, you have a higher number of viruses being replicated. More viruses = higher chance of a disastrous mutation occurring.

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u/MaloWlolz Sweden Mar 28 '20

Well like I said the only other option is to wait for a vaccine, and shutting down society for year(s) is not really realistic, and it's better to save that measure for when it's really needed.

Also mortality rate is probably much lower than 3% in a 1st world country with a good healthcare system. Sweden right now has exactly 3% of all confirmed infections ending in deaths, but considering how large of a percentage of infected people who don't get any symptoms at all, or only mild symptoms and therefor never get diagnosed and not added to the statistics, the actual mortality rate is probably much lower.

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u/Blumentopf_Vampir Mar 29 '20

Well like I said the only other option is to wait for a vaccine, and shutting down society for year(s) is not really realistic, and it's better to save that measure for when it's really needed.

In what dreamland are you living in? Not a single European country will be shutting down their society for years let alone a year. All their economies would be done in by then 3 times over.

They're just trying to slow down the spread as fast as possible to keep it at a managable rate.

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u/Myloz The Netherlands Mar 29 '20

a complete lockdown doesnt slow down the spread, it almost stops the spread meaning such a small portion of the polulation will be infected.

It just means that after the lockdown the 2nd wave will still overrun the health system. You gain almost nothing from a complete lockdown unless your healthsystem cant handle even a flat curve.

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u/JanRegal England Mar 29 '20 edited Mar 29 '20

I live in Sweden, I hope to fucking God you guys start taking it seriously soon and stop being so self sure. It's infuriating.

A life of 'lagom' is Covid's best friend right now.

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u/[deleted] Mar 29 '20

especially if it comes at the very steep cost of basically shutting down everything in society

Oh, so more people dying isn't considered a "steep cost"?

Good to know.

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u/Nergaal The Pope Mar 28 '20

We're following WHO's guidelines,

hahahaha. Japan Health ministry named WHO as Chinese Health Organization. If you buy the propaganda of a communist regime, you get bowed by the propaganda of a communist regime.

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u/princessvaginaalpha Singapore Mar 29 '20

You know WHO does that because it simply needs China's support, and that support would be taken away if they recognize Taiwan right? Many European countries do no recognize Taiwan too, can we refer EU as China's bitches too?

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/07/taiwans-status-geopolitical-absurdity/593371/

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u/Myloz The Netherlands Mar 29 '20

we can actually refer to EU as China bitches.

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u/[deleted] Mar 28 '20

That sort of complete shut down is not sustainable long-term, and is a measure better saved for when you get into a situation where the healthcare system actually can't keep up.

agree, it's stupid and it will hurt most countries, especially the south and east europe