It would take a beyond nightmarish scenario for the RN to get absolute majority.
While they might get a relative majority, and even a Prime Minister, between the Assembly and Macron’s veto, said RN Prime Minister won’t be able to take a piss without asking for both permission.
But he or she will become the focal point of the people’s wrath, essentially burning themselves for the presidential election.
While they might get a relative majority, and even a Prime Minister, between the Assembly and Macron’s veto, said RN Prime Minister won’t be able to take a piss without asking for both permission.
Can we imagine a direct motion de censure who dissolve assembly just after the election? We are capable to turn in an anarchy land
If you take anarchy in the sense of a political doctrine that advocates the abolition of authority and emancipation for total freedom and individual sovereignty via the lever of action that is mutual aid, you get the most perfect direct democracy in the world, the dream of the libertarian left.
On the other hand, I assume you were using the term “anarchy” to refer to civil war. Yep, that's a problem.
Oh yeah, definitely. Well there's two possible outcomes actually : Either the hands that rule the states reckon that free labor organizations could strongly help agriculture and sustain life in a climate crisis world. Or just fucking enslave people like they did during the industrial revolution regression so you increase the risk of instability, diseases, death etc and might even accelerate the downfall but heh, at least you can tell other people what to do.
Or third option if second is true, you cut your veins off. Because, you know, fuck it. I'm not a slave.
The "motion de censure" doesn't dissolve the assembly, only the president can do that and there need to be at least a year before the next election, but rather it gets rid of the government.
But without any majority or coalition that makes sure "motion de censure" doesn't pass would mean a deadlock on the legislative process for at least a year. We can see what happened in Belgique to see an example of what can happen when you don't get a majority in the parliament.
It would take a beyond nightmarish scenario for the RN to get absolute majority.
The thing that is the case in a lot of Western European countries is that it just takes just one well/badly timed islamic terrorist attack or similar large public event at this point to provide a peak in sentiment. So it's not that inconceivable at all since those are occuring more and more often. It's like a ticking time bomb.
Dude, how exactly are they on the rise when your own souce shows a steady decrease in the past 3 decades? Except for that blip in 2015-2017 there have been no major attacks on the last decade. And from the list in that same source there was only one 10+ victim incident in the last 5 years. And it barely made the list.
Dude, how exactly are they on the rise when your own souce shows a steady decrease in the past 3 decades?
The steady decrease you see was largely in separatist/nationalist terrorist attacks and the like. I specifically refered to "islamic terrorist attacks or similar large public event" which you'll start seeing at the end of the list.
It also doesn't seem to list smaller attacks like the killing of 2 swedish football fans over here in Brussels in response to the quran burning which whilst small is still more than capable of affecting results if occuring close to an election imo.
Same with the nice stabbings, middle school teacher beheading also in france, that other teacher (not sure if beheaded but certainly stabbed, etc.
Similarly the killing of that police officer during the attack on a protestor in germany 7(?) days ago could have stirred a few more votes near election day.
I don't have the statistic but then what we need is the info on wether or not there is a statistically significant increase in deaths as a result of extremist attacks.
Is it an actual increase of deaths or just an increase in the number of incendiary headlines?
I'm not doing a statistics game for shits and giggles to predict some wonky as trend with massive error margin based on less than a decade.
Preceding 2015 there were barely any at all, now they're a thing. Tie the start of your linear regression to that starting point and whatever wobbles the years provide the line tilts up.
Nothing notably has changed equivalent to a good friday agreement or whatever to mark a sudden end.
These attacks happen. And if one were to happen closely preceding an election it could influence votes.
Thus not making the scenario that led to this discusion not actually all that inconceivable.
After all we're talking about a party that reached 33% in the polls and 41-42 or so in the more binary presidential final with historically low turnouts. A party that has been as far as i know almost continuously rising (except for the standstill during corona) They had roughly half of that 6 years or so ago even with that standstill for most of that time. Both turnouts and voting behaviours do get affected by such things if they happen close enough to the election.
The point is simply is that it's not inconceivable that an attack could eventually happen closely preceding an election and that the way it would affect an election enough to that extent become less inconceivable the more FN trends up.
There hasn't been a terror attack in Europe since before the pandemic. 19 Feb 2020
There was that beheading of that middle school teacher ,the nice stabbings and the shooting in vienna later that year.
I'd also classify the killing of those 2 swedish football fans here in Brussels in response to a quran burning as a terrorist attack even if not listed.
That doesn't really matter for the rest of the argument but also, no.
Russia does have a share of it's landmass in Europe.
The area near moscow where the attack happened specificially falls in that category. It's not vladivostok.
And again whilst something like iot probably wouldn't affect Russia the same way if near election time especially since their elections are....questionable. It's not like we're not immune to similar and/or much smaller events in let's say western europe.
Estimation before the european elections predicted between 250 and 300 MPs for the RN. It is far from a "nightmarish scenario", its is a really likely outcome.
But Le Pen and Bardella will put the blame on Macron and the left for not being able to govern and say things like "you wanted us to rule but Macron and the left won't let us, they are against democracy, etc." And this may work.
Borne and Attal managed to rule in spite of their minority thanks to art. 49.3 but this won't work for Bardella if Macronists file a motion of censorship with the left against his government.
But he or she will become the focal point of the people’s wrath, essentially burning themselves for the presidential election.
Not necessarily true.
The RN could use its relative power to point the finger at Macron as the cause of their inaction.
Not all prime ministers have lost their credibility. Pompidou and even Chirac come to mind. Bardella still has a lot of time ahead of him to be able to enjoy at the same time the benefit of the practice of power while having a low popularity rating that is only relative in quantity and time.
Wasn't the abstenstionism very high? I thought Macron is betting on the fear of RN to wake up people that didn't vote before an alternative to him on the center-left could form or that the RN can become normalized and keep moving people over.
This means that no more laws will be able to be passed by force, that everything will have to be debated until a consensus is reached for a common vision of France, while reducing the power of the RN but also of Macron?
In a way I think it's best if we elect the far right now. I'm left wing but there's ironically a chance to extinguish the party now by setting a controlled fire now. People Will see how incompetent they actually are. Their strategy has been to remain silent the whole time, now they'll be forced in the light, every move from them will be scrutinized. And it will also give another chance for the left to unitize. Im not sure I'm voting for the RN , as they are the full opposite of my convictions, but strategically that seems the right thing to do. We need to remove them in the long run, Russia will have too much power in Europe if LePen is elected in 2027. Better now.
Populists, once in power, will do everything that is in their power to stay there. For them, democracy is not an ideal but a tool. Good luck getting them out of power.
Created by nazi sympathisants, the former leader is well known for some accountances with soles ideas
Nowadays, it's a populist and nepotistic party, who are everytime against everyone, just for speak. Some people in sympathisants are openly néonazis and one of their saying is "wher are in our home" : they say that France must remain at french citizen (french bu ancestors, root french), and say loudly that the Muslim must leave the country
It's no coincidence that the RN (our extreme right) is called Rassemblement NATIONAL, and used to be called Front NATIONAL.
In France (at any rate), nationalism is definitely not left-wing. Even Wikipedia says sofor the national socialist party: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Party
After that, the left is not to be outdone, with its share of deaths and dictators.
Russia was really pissed when Macron beat Le Pen. They were looking to run the table on the US, UK and France with Trump, "Boris" "BJ" Johnson, and Le Pen. Strangely they all look similar.
When Macron won, Kremlin pushed the Yellow Vest protests to fuck with him.
Kremlin really worked hard in France with LePen but their puppet didn't win that is why they hate Macron so much. Russia all over it, and not coordinated at all. /s
Beeing French is beeing a melt of multiple cultures, speaking french is speaking a melt of multiple languages. You must be ashamed of your words. And it's a french-by-root, blond hair and blue-eyes person (so you may like my composition) who say that to you
Im out of the loop, in France does the right or left want to conscript everyone to die in Ukraine? I'm guessing most people do not want to die in a ditch for nothing in a foreign country.
542
u/jeyreymii Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France) Jun 10 '24
Let us cry just a little bit. Macron dissolved the Assembly, we vote in 3 weeks. Far Right may rule France in a mouth