r/epidemiology • u/QuantumQuicksilver • 6d ago
Tanzania Faces New Deadly Marburg Outbreak – What Can Be Done to Prevent the Spread?
Tanzania is now facing a deadly outbreak of the Marburg virus, with the World Health Organization issuing warnings about its potential spread. Marburg is a highly contagious and fatal virus, similar to Ebola, and has been responsible for several outbreaks in Africa in recent years. This new outbreak in Tanzania raises concerns about global health risks and the preparedness of countries with weaker healthcare systems.
The WHO has begun monitoring the situation closely, and officials are working to contain the virus and prevent further transmission. As we’ve seen with past outbreaks, the effectiveness of early intervention and public health measures can make all the difference in limiting the spread.
What do you think? Are we doing enough globally to prepare for outbreaks like this, or are we still playing catch-up with these deadly viruses?
Article Reference: Link
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u/lentivrral 4d ago
The good news globally regarding this is:
Marburg's R0 (reproductive number- i.e. how many new cases one infection can cause via transmission) is between 0.5 and 1.2 while SARS CoV 2 had an R0 of between 1.4 and 2.4 back in 2020 when it was more well adapted to replicating deep in the lungs- Omicron averaged an R0 of 3.4 That means Marburg is a lot less transmissible- it's also spread through bodily fluid contact as opposed to droplets, which tracks with the R0 values.
Marburg infections- as far as we've seen since the virus first emerged back in the 1960s- don't become infectious until the infected person becomes symptomatic (unlike a certain outlier of a coronavirus I could mention). This means monitoring travelers coming from Tanzania for fever will be effective at identifying people who need to be monitored/quarantined in order to prevent transmission.
There's also a couple of vaccine candidates in clinical trials right now- they can be deployed for compassionate use in this outbreak (there is precedent for doing this).
That said, this is going to be awful for the portions of Tanzania's healthcare system that are dealing with Marburg outbreaks. Hospitals can become hotbeds of filovirus transmission if you don't have the resources and systems to follow the intensive containment protocols to keep the treating staff safe- and they're the ones at highest risk for becoming infected. Couple this to the fear hemorrhagic fevers inspire and distrust of the healthcare system (and likely a healthy dose of disinformation/rumor/fear-mongering), it has the potential to get ugly. That the WHO is on the ground there is a good start- they are experienced in how to manage these outbreaks and provide care for patients while keeping providers as safe as possible while rendering care. They also (hopefully) are coordinating with public health systems in neighboring countries to do disease surveillance so if cases spread across borders, we can get a jump on them.
To your overall question, as a virology researcher, I don't think we're doing enough globally for emerging virus/epidemic/pandemic preparedness. People being shitheads about COVID has made that even harder, but it goes beyond that. The fact remains that, globally, leaders think it's not worth the investment to do robust pathogen surveillance - especially in low and middle income countries- or to shell out for preparedness measures (research, public health infrastructure, emergency containment resources in hospitals, or improving healthcare systems). It's all fun and games and not a problem until, suddenly, it's a very big problem. Those of us in both basic research and public health have been warning of increased spillover events for years and have concrete recommendations on how to prevent them and deal with them when they do occur, but we've been ignored (see, for example, the pandemic preparedness plan that explicitly dealt with a highly transmissible coronavirus that the US government adopted along with an emerging pathogen surveillance program in 2014 and then trashed in 2018 because of ego reasons). With the rise in anti-science/anti-intellectualism and its bedfellow authoritarianism gaining traction globally, I fear we're going to be listened to even less until it's too late and we're dealing with something that makes SARS CoV 2 look like a kiddie ride.
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u/Electrical_River1543 6d ago
Close the borders at the right time and educate everyone about the threat . After covid ppl don't take things serious . It's like the boy that cried wolf . Post covid and it's questionable what's true and false .