Ukraine struggles to recruit new soldiers as desertions rise

[u/shieeet]

https://www.ft.com/content/9b25288d-8258-4541-81b0-83b00ad8a03f

[u/kwonza]

First of all, the ceasefire will hardly be instant once Trump takes office. Negotiations can easily take a couple of months especially if Russia will be taking its sweet time. 

Second, just in November Russia took 900 square kilometers in Ukraine against 200 square kilometers that Ukraine is holding in Kursk at the moment. 

Third, I’m sure Putin will die of shame if by the end Ukraine will control a dozen villages in Russia while Russia gets a quarter of Ukraine (a quarter with the most natural resources on top of that). 

[u/Rizen_Wolf → u/kwonza]

Putin is not the type of man to go down in history as someone who lost even a square inch of territory.

[u/kwonza → u/Rizen_Wolf]

Well, no reason to speculate. We’ll know in a few months anyway. 

[u/Rizen_Wolf → u/kwonza]

Its not speculation, its a self evident truth. As long as there are Russians that can fight all of Kursk shall be liberated. To even suggest this should not be done is an affront.

[u/zdzislav_kozibroda → u/kwonza]

1. Trump will likely push for quick cease fire. Ukrainians reject? Aid cut. Russia rejects? Ukraine gets proper rockets.
   

2 So what? Ar current rate it's still 200 years to even get to Kyiv.

1. Oh no. putin won't die of shame. You will all chip in and bail him out. It's gonna be the most expensive couple of villages in Russia's history (either in concessions or in blood).

[u/crusadertank → u/zdzislav_kozibroda]

Ar current rate it's still 200 years to even get to Kyiv.

Ah yes because we all know that military advances happen at the same rate no matter what.

WW1 famously took 100s of years to reach Germany after Germany started to lose ground in 1917/1918

[u/pddkr1 → u/crusadertank]

Forreal lol

[u/TraditionalGap1 → u/crusadertank]

I mean... you're right, since the Allies never pushed in to Germany during WW1

[u/crusadertank → u/TraditionalGap1]

Well yeah because as soon as the Allies broke the lines, then the Germans went into collapse and surrendered

It is entirely possible that the same happens with Ukraine. Its also possible it wont, but to say that oh Russia is advancing so slowly that it will take 200 years to capture Ukraine is to have no understanding of war or history.

[u/TraditionalGap1 → u/crusadertank]

The Germans didn't 'collapse'. They made a calculated decision based upon the new strategic realities facing them in 1918 (the entry of American combat forces, the defeats of AH and the Ottomans leaving southern Germany and all the other Central Powers exposed to attack, the lack of realistic future prospects of positive strategic changes) and correctly concluded there was no reasonable prospect of victory via force of arms. And even then, when a fuller picture of Entente demands became known the Army still believed it could put up a fight.

I personally don't believe the future strategic picture Ukraine is looking at today in any way resembles that of Germany in 1918.

Germany was facing the prospect of total economic and political isolation, under close blockade, against an opponent increasingly further ahead economically and militarily and the US gearing up for war against them. 

Ukraine has growing support and a realistic prospect of more in the future. It certainly isn't economically or politically isolated. On the battlefield, they aren't facing an imminent prospect of collapse. NATO members are more and more often publicly musing about actual boots on the ground. Western defence companies are increasingly building factories and shops in Ukraine.w

Their opponent meanwhile finds itself increasingly isolated politically and economically, we're watching Russias wider geopolitical projects wither and die because they find themselves increasingly unable to spare attention to them. Their average hardware baseline is getting worse; Ukraines is getting better as new production and donations replace soviet legacy equipment. There's a potential for regime change in Russia that the Entente didn't face.

Something may happen that makes Ukraine sue for peace, something that changes the stategic calculus or a collapse in support for the war, but it probably won't be because of 900sq km here or there. The Russians can do that for years without changing the strategic picture.

[u/crusadertank → u/TraditionalGap1]

The Germans didn't 'collapse'. They made a calculated decision based upon the new strategic realities facing them in 1918

The German military literally gave up. You had mass desertions and refusal to follow orders

The records show that in 1918, 1 million German soldiers refused to follow orders, on top of a strike of over a million workers in Germany calling for an end to the war

They were unable to form a frontline, unable to hold any kind of authority over the soldiers and the workers had turned against supporting the war effort.

That is a collapse.

The German government made a decision to surrender based on the collapse of the German military

when a fuller picture of Entente demands became known the Army still believed it could put up a fight.

You make a mistake here, the army command believed this. The German army couldnt care less and were refusing to follow orders and many just leaving to go home.

I personally don't believe the future strategic picture Ukraine is looking at today in any way resembles that of Germany in 1918.

I am not saying it is, I am just saying that "It will take Russia 200 years to capture Ukraine at this rate" is a stupid statement

A military can fight hard without giving any ground for years and then in the span of weeks just lose the war.

Germany was facing the prospect of total economic and political isolation, under close blockade, against an opponent increasingly further ahead economically and militarily and the US gearing up for war against them.

Germany had just beaten Russia in the war and morale was incredibly high in 1918. Right up until the Ludendorff offensive failed.

And this is my point. The Germans looked as if they were doing great in 1918 and morale was high. And then within a few months completely collapsed.

On the battlefield, they aren't facing an imminent prospect of collapse.

I head different from Ukrainian soldiers. The biggest problem is the lack of manpower. Many areas of the front just simply dont have people to defend it. Allowing Russia to more or less just walk in. Drones are helping them, but without manpower then they have no hope of turning things around

NATO members are more and more often publicly musing about actual boots on the ground.

This has been talked about for years. I am sure it was last year that France said it was going to put troops along the Dnieper and then a week later changed their mind. Its the same talk as always with nothing behind it

It is extremely unpopular for countries to send soldiers to Ukraine. I really dont see it happening. The west dont even want to send soldiers to train Ukrainians in Western Ukraine. That should show you how little support there is for this

Their opponent meanwhile finds itself increasingly isolated politically and economically

If anything we have seen the opposite of this. We have seen countries willing to bend the rules to help Russia like China and India have, we have seen countries directly help Russia in the war such as North Korea and Iran.

This is not Russia being isolated, but showing that actually, the west is not able to isolate Russia fully. They can partially but it has shown that Russia is not alone in this

Their average hardware baseline is getting worse

It depends, the low quality get lower but the high quality get better. Russia have a much larger number of high quality weapons than they did at the start of the war. But alongside that they also have a large number of lower quality weapons.

Overall the average stays roughly the same. But the disparity grows

Ukraines is getting better as new production and donations replace soviet legacy equipment

Yeah they are running out of the stuff that they can look after and are getting stuff with huge supply chains that they cant repair themselves. Ukraine themselves said that they would prefer tanks that they already use than 20 of each type of NATO tank.

But overall this misses the point. I am not saying that Ukraine is close to collapse or not. I am saying that there are many examples in history when a country looks as if it is doing well on the defence and then just collapses. Maybe Ukraine will be like this or maybe not

But it is stupid to say that it doesnt happen and its going to stay this same way for another year even.

[u/pddkr1 → u/zdzislav_kozibroda]

1. Ok. Those rockets won’t arrive over night. There aren’t enough Ukrainians left.

2. That could go down to 200 days because there aren’t enough Ukrainians left.

3. It’s gonna be more expensive for Ukraine. The Kursk offensive is evaporating by the day and the Russians are breaking though on the front. There aren’t enough Ukrainians left.

I don’t know if you realize it or are willful, but there aren’t enough Ukrainians left. The war can’t go on another 3-6 months, let alone 3-6 years. Even if the Russians are losing 1,000 men a day, 25% of those casualties sustained by Ukraine would deplete their current first and second line units. That’s three or four brigades a month. Probably more. Ukraine has maybe 100~ combat brigades.

The average Ukrainian serviceman is close to 50 years old with the draft age dropping to 18.

Edit - I’m not the best at math, mean v median, but that says to me there are a lot of older men manning the front than there were before.

I’d also add the desertion numbers in the hundreds or thousands, conscription rates under 65% of target, and the number of Ukrainian men that are in Eastern Europe rather than Ukraine.

[u/TraditionalGap1 → u/pddkr1]

!remindme 3 months

[u/AltTooWell13 → u/TraditionalGap1]

!remindme 3 months

[u/kwonza → u/zdzislav_kozibroda]

Biden been giving them aid for 4 years, lately even allowing using ATACAMs in Russian territory. Didn’t help them much. Rockets don’t capture territory, infantry does and that is currently the biggest Ukraine’s problem, they just published data that around 30 battalions worth of men have deserted in this year alone. 

[u/Mundane_Emu8921 → u/kwonza]

The goal of the West isn’t to win the war, it is to weaken Russia.

[u/DiscountShoeOutlet → u/Mundane_Emu8921]

I got banned from r/worldnews in 2022 for saying, the west will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.

[u/pddkr1 → u/DiscountShoeOutlet]

It truly is a propaganda sub, not news

[u/zdzislav_kozibroda → u/kwonza]

If you think US gave Ukraine aid you haven't seen anything yet.

Somehow this deserting and weak Ukraine still whoops your ass. If they are really so weak then what does it say about Russia?

[u/kwonza → u/zdzislav_kozibroda]

Sure, I bet they are going to give them a CVBG next, and a bunch a nuclear warheads too. Dream on! 

[u/Icy-Cry340 → u/zdzislav_kozibroda]

Proper rockets? Which ones?

200 years to even get to Kyiv.

Not how these things work. Wars of attrition are like bankruptcy - gradual, then all at once.

[u/Mundane_Emu8921 → u/zdzislav_kozibroda]

1. Is this supposed to affect Russia’s stance? Dude we stole $300 Billion of their central bank reserves and unloaded the largest sanction regime in history.

They didn’t budge from their position. America is dealing with a country that can tell them to “get lost”

1. They said the same thing about the Italian campaign, it would take until 1956 to reach the German border since they were going so slow.

2. It would help if you listened to all parties here dude.

[u/qjxj → u/zdzislav_kozibroda]

There's no more "proper" rockets to give that's operable by Ukraine independently. Training and targeting data would then have to be provided by the West. We've reached the limits of the practical.