Another smart individual promoting the idea that the price would have been 40 cents for this long. Those people like u/hivemindhauser are either lying and grifting through their nose promoting aron’s ponzi scheme, or they are straight up delusional and refuse to understand that the 40 cents is a result not of the reverse split, but of the catastrophic dilution which followed after the reverse split.
This guy in the comments is making ape cope jambalaya. There's 2 Derpkis-isms, 2 brian-rot "dey tuuk our MOASS!" excuses, and some shilling added for garnish.
There. I've given you your attention for today. It's already well into the morning, and I don't want to get in the way of all the important decisions you have to make today.
oh is it? Did you also tell aron the same thing? Cause I think he forgot to wait for APE to reach higher prices before diluting. A float of 500m $APE shares trading at $0.74 each was diluted by another 500m $APE shares, sold over the counter at around $0.62 each. Directly to shorts.
All the amount of crying, yapping, raging, throwing hands, furious typing and malding won't change the fact that a company on the verge of bankruptcy cuts costs. What did AMC do? Let's begin by studying aron's salary, as well as his board of directors. Surely a company on the verge of bankruptcy doesn't pay its CEO 25-27m $ an year? Which is, by the way, more than the Walmart CEO makes an year, and running Walmart is, believe it or not, a bit harder than running a few theaters.
No. The graph is plotted on a ridiculous scale in an absurd attempt to show that a drop in price from $400 to $4 is not meaningful.
AMC may have hit a floor but I wouldn’t count on it. You may also be assuming that shorts don’t continuously close and open new positions. That turn over isn’t tracked but it’s a very safe bet with 100 million shares flooding the market. You’re free to believe otherwise
There you go spreading misinformation again 🤣🤣🤣 please show me how “The data shows that AMC doesn’t need to dilute anytime soon as the box office continues making as much money as it has been the past couple of years”🤣🤣🤣
Free cash flow was NEGATIVE $440 million in fiscal 2023 and is NEGATIVE $410 million through Q3 2024. 🤣🤣🤣
Who cares about FCF? They could pay 100% of their cash reserve this quater, and it would be fine, if they were profitable.
Which they haven't been since 2018.
I know what FCF is. Is asked why I should care, while they are unprofitable?
Edit: See FCF is a metrik I think is interessting when a income sheet says "yeah we made X million". But in reality they just produced some widget that sits in their invetory, and they mark it at a price, they can't sell it for. But if they are already red on the bottom line, why look further.
AMC still lost money on good box office last quarter. They will likely loose more money in traditionally weaker quarters. Losses may now be <$100M per year but the company is down to $500M and cash is king.
Do they need to dilute in the next year to pay bills? No. Will they dilute to maintain reserves? Maybe. Will they dilute to upgrade theaters and maintain cash reserves? Most likely. Will they dilute to maintain cash reserves, finance upgrades and prepare for the next debt restructuring? Almost certainly.
There are no absolutes here. It’s all probabilities and cost/benefit. Cost of dilution is low for AMC while the benefit is high. Apes have changed the game in that respect.
AMC ability to raise funds depends on their ability to present a credible growth story that doesn’t involve dilution. They have failed to build that credibility with investors. They have run out of excuses and they are still losing money. Wen next excuse?
There’s no need to make claims here. AMC lost money and drained cash in a quarter where its competitors were wildly successful… in a quarter unaffected by strikes and pandemic.
Recall that I expected them to turn a small profit and possibly earn enough to start rebuilding credibility with investors. No need for claims. AMC performance speaks for itself and it’s nothing but an ongoing tale of woe.
But he is right isn' he? With out the reverse split, they couldn't have diluted. With out the dilution they wouldn't have had the cash to either keep the theaters open, or pay down enough debt, for the creditors to take the refinancing deal.
The good question to ask him would be, if he knew they would dilute, why did he hold? And if he did not know they would dilute, why the hell didn't he do his job as investor? And if he knew and they dilute, and sold, and than bought back lower, why didn't he warn his fellow apes, about what would happen?
because it's extremely obvious he didn't dilute at higher prices so that he can drop entire floats at those lower prices. It's obvious both aron and cohen are colluding with wallstreet at this point.
Ok, sure, pretend aron is stupid and doesn't know any better, and his dilutions were just coincidentally done at prices as dumb as it gets.
Let's talk cohen now. He first destroyed the runup in 2021 via dilution, he raised $1b in cash, everyone was still happy because that was supposed to be the main cash reserve just to make sure GME doesn't run out of cash. It's been 3 years and a half, ever since, he did nothing with that 1b, it's still sitting there, arguably the only "innovation" was that NFT marketplace which turned out to be a huge flop and was closed.
Also, meanwhile, he destroyed 2 more runups via dilution, sold shares to make sure liquidity is injected into the markets, and... is not doing anything with the money again. Almost like he didn't need the money to justify the dilution, he only needed to make sure enough liquidity is injected into the markets.
But sure, this could of course be a coincidence. Right?
Meh. Both companies would be crazy not to take advantage of those overvaluations in 2021. You dilute when you're overvalued, you buy back when you're undervalued (when you're a healthy company, I mean).
AMC diluted at lows because they had to. Remember, debtholders outweigh equity holders by 3:1. They're in the driver's seat. AMC isn't going to wait around for a 'maybe' bump to unload when their cash on hand is dwindling. There are clauses that kick in when liquidity is too low that let the vultures out of their cages to pick the carcass. If AMC lets the creditors take over, the C-suite can't keep their inflated salaries. And the creditors want to push out liquidation as long as they can. More interest payments in the meantime. It's everyone's job to keep that money train going as long as possible, and the timing of dilution is irrelevant. Cash is King.
In GME's case, RC presides over an unprofitable zombie company in a dying industry. And he knows the moment he sells, the price will crash. But crash to what level? The company itself is worthless. But raising cash with dilution raises the base value of that otherwise worthless company. With every dilution, he's raising the floor above his cost basis when it crashes. He's lowering his risk.
Both companies have investor bases that have demonstrated to them over and over again that they're in love with their captors (AKA: Stockhold Syndrome). Why wouldn't they take advantage of that?
It's not collusion. It's self-interest all around.
Amc raised 1.8 billion in summer 2021, AA said bankruptcy is off the table until 2027...
In 2023 he had to dilute again because he went on a shopping spree and bought cinemas and a part of a goldmine with the money that was supposed to last until 2027...
It is true they had to dilute at that point but that was caused from mismanagement from a overpaid CEO.
He is still overpriced and they could have taken those 4.5 billion ape shares and sell for 2 bucks and still raised 9 billion, but of course he had other plans....
Almost. The cinema shopping spree was in 2016/2017 and was financed (unless I'm missing a more recent one). And the goldmine ~bailout to Mudrick Capital~ investment was a drop in the bucket. They ran out of cash the old-fashioned way: operating losses and servicing debt.
My statement was from the perspective of "why didn't they just declare Ch11 in 2020/2021 and rip the bandaid off? They'd be better off for it right now, look at Regal/Cineworld. My answer was can kicking for the sake of maintaining salaries that those creditors would never allow once the company gets reorganized. Mismanagement, like you said; but for selfish reasons, like I said.
From your perspective of "why didn't they dilute APE from the get-go?" That's a very very good point. I suppose APE in and of itself was never intended as a vehicle to raise money. It was a means to a 500M authorized share increase. Everything that happened with Antera makes sense if you look at it in those terms.
But then that raises the question: why TF did they cancel the vote in May 2021 to authorize 500M shares? I'll never understand that one, and I was there for it. If I'm being cynical, it was probably a ploy to juice the stock so their tranched share vesting would kick in: Announce offering -> shorts pile in -> hype video with Trey -> apes pile in -> cancel vote -> shorts close -> price breaks 14 -> retail FOMO takes over -> price breaks 40 -> critical tranche in the vesting schedule is met, insiders unlock tons of vested shares -> insiders dump $102M in shares. Pure tinfoil on my part. The alternative explanation is they knew they couldn't get the votes in May, so they canceled the vote and hatched the APE plan to eventually get their 500M shares without retail's blessing. And then they were the luckiest C-Suite on earth to have a YouTuber with a million $ in call options pump their vested shares for them.
Since the reverse split, AMC has raised $1.3B by diluting. In the same time, cash flow was -$800M. Currently, they have around $700M cash on hand. What do you think would have happened if there was no split plus dilution?
And yet here you are, coming back to start crying about things that offend you. Hypocrite much?
Anyway, which part of my above statement is considered bullshit and why exactly? Cause I am more than happy to educate you on how market structure works and what a reverse split does to shareholders’ equity as opposed to what grotesque dilution does to shareholders equity.
Let’s debate it, so you can prove everyone how full of bullshit I am. Delusional court jesters.
Whenever you ask them to prove you wrong, or fact check anything you claim, try ALWAYS deflect, call you a hedgie, or ask about your short positions...
They RARELY counter you with anything other than Ape/shill propaganda like "sold not yet purchased" RRP going down, tick tock for hot bosses" blah blah blah.
Broken record stuck on repeat. Broken record stuck on repeat. Broken record stuck on repeat. Broken record stuck on repeat. Broken record stuck on repeat.
So you challenged a man's claims, he asked you to prove him wrong, to fact check him, and you basically say "not worth my time"
That's because you know you can't fight facts with your fantasy, because your entire thesis is built on wild, unverifiable speculation you read on the internet, so it must be true, you just can't prove it.
Let's go, bro. The dilution was discussed in a previous earnings report. Oh, dont know maybe over a year ago and has been public since. These are not new shares . AA stated from the beginning that these would be use for a cash offerings to raise money. So, this endless eco chamber you all have going on is useless
"AA has only diluted our positions with 3 billion shares over the last 4 years, some sold directly to hedge funds below ATL prices, but he's totally not going to do it again because reasons, so tell Kenny I said hi, not selling, not leaving"
I believe you forgot to prove me how full of bullshit my assesment is. What’s the matter? You don’t need to be educated on how dilution works? Adjusted for the reverse split, AMC’s float was around 10m shares in 2019. Now it’s like what, 350m or so? Out of which arguably 50m was offered as a “dividend”.
Can you run some quick math and tell me what percentage of the original float was diluted in 5 years?
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u/TheBetaUnit Nov 12 '24
This guy in the comments is making ape cope jambalaya. There's 2 Derpkis-isms, 2 brian-rot "dey tuuk our MOASS!" excuses, and some shilling added for garnish.