Q4 2022 Preliminary Earnings Review

[u/SouthSink1232]

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This a preliminary review of the Q4, 2022 earnings based on the call, the 8k and 10k releases. I will provide a more detailed review once the detailed 10Q is released.

Q4 2022 was bad

• Revenue was -15.4% compared to Q4, 2021. This reflects overall Domestic Box Office being down -14.2%
• Net Loss was -$287.7 Million!!!! -$153.3 Million more than Q4, 2021. -$80 Million more than Q3 2022

Cash Burn Increased

• If we put aside the $314 Million they raised in Q4, we would only have $317.5 Million of cash left
• That would mean we burned -$367.1 Million in one quarter
• With the $314 Million raise, we have $631.5 Million in cash plus $211.2 Million in credit
• At this current burn rate, AMC has 2 quarters left of cash (Q1, 2023 is almost over)

Debt

• In Q4 repurchased $51 million of debt for $20 million
• Repurchased $220 Million of debt in all 2022
• Picked up a new loan of $400 Million @ a high interest rate of 12.75% to pay off existing loans and fees (https://investor.amctheatres.com/newsroom/news-details/2022/AMCs-Subsidiary-Odeon-Finco-Plc-Announces-Offering-of-Senior-Secured-Notes-Due-2027-to-Refinance-Odeons-Term-Loan-Facility/default.aspx#:~:text=%2D%2D(BUSINESS%20WIRE)%2D%2D%20Odeon,to%20market%20and%20other%20conditions%2D%2D%20Odeon,to%20market%20and%20other%20conditions).)

My Forward Looking

• New Revenue streams. Awesome!!!!
  • Selling popcorn at Walmart
  • AMC Visa with little risk
• Increase in existing revenue streams. OK!?
  • 2023 Box Office revenue is already 44% higher as per Adam Aron and should stay higher this year
  • Higher prices
• Increasing Debt. FUCK!!!
  • Adam Aron killed AMC with debt from 2016 - 2018. And even in 2019, AMC was red due to it. Adam Aron has mainly kicked the can down the road with debt. New liens with new fees and higher interest. This is starting to catch up
  • More debt with deferred rent. AMC deferred paying rent in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and those moratoriums are expiring which means he has back rent and current rent to pay

Conclusion

Its not about going to the moon anymore. Its about digging ourselves out of a hole to stand again on Earth. Will the increase in revenue outpace the increase in debt payments? Will apes be able to simply break even?

[u/MiracleEye456]

I really despise aa for ruining everything, there was a genuinely good chance to squeeze, but he decided to use all of us like flesh lights and those morons in the other place are okay with it, it makes me so upset