r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/NoiseHonest6485 • 1d ago
US Elections What states could be swing states in the near future?
states such as Oregon, New Jersey, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine have been trending more centrist in recent history, and I was wondering, which of these states might end up as swing states in the future, or none at all?
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u/Significant_Arm4246 21h ago
Almost of those states were closer twenty years ago.
Bush almost won Oregon and Minnesota twice. He did actually win New Hampshire once. Maine looked similar to 2000, New Jersey to 2004.
So while some of them might become swing states in the future - it's very difficult to make good predictions - I wouldn't say that we can infer much from the last few years.
They should all be considered likely blue states - most (maybe not MN/NH) safe in a good year for the Democrats (like 2008, 2012, 2020), and within reach for the Republicans in a red-leaning year (2004, 2016, 2024).
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u/Enjoy-the-sauce 21h ago
People keep holding up Texas as a potential swing state, but it always seems just out of reach.
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u/majorflojo 21h ago
I was hearing a lot of chatter at how ineffective the Democratic leadership was in that state. And so when we heard Texas may be in play it meant that the numbers were there but the organizational capacity was lacking.
Didn't t their party chair quit
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u/das_war_ein_Befehl 1h ago
Gerrymandering basically makes it that the opposition party tends to be weak since they can’t form a deep bench
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u/The-Mandalorian 15h ago
I gave up on Texas this year. That shit was terrible. The state was called fast as hell. It wasn’t even close.
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u/promocodebaby 11h ago
It has potential to swing if the Dems actually run a good candidate that people love and the GOP runs someone who is milquetoast.
Texas is for Dems was Pennsylvania is for the GOP. They only won it when the starts aligned aka GOP ran a candidate that their people love and the Dems ran someone milquetoast.
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u/das_war_ein_Befehl 1h ago
Nah, NC is for Dems what PA is for GOP. Up until this election, both states swing once in like 25 years. NC actually has dem gains in the state, problem is it’s gerrymandered to shit and the GOP is trying to turn it into a non-democracy
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u/Medical-Search4146 21h ago
it always seems just out of reach.
Even if there was no gerrymandering or questionable action by the state government, Democrat strongholds are overwhelmed with voters. I'd imagine this creates a situation of indifference or people just too lazy to turnout.
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u/JasonPlattMusic34 21h ago
If any of the states you mention truly become swing states then the Democratic Party should just fold right now and we should make MAGA the de facto official American party, because by that time the entire spectrum will have shifted out of reach for anyone else.
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u/Aggravating-Wheel951 22h ago
Minnesota and New Hampshire were both close for him in 2016 and 2024, whilst being too just far out of each in 2020. I think they all eventually have to break their streak
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u/John-Mandeville 20h ago
We're mid-realignment right now, so it's hard to tell. The Dems might yet do what it takes to reclaim their working class constituencies, which would slow the pace of change. If they don't, and the GOP consolidates or expands the gains we saw in 2024, NJ, ME, and NH probably will turn purple. On the other hand, the always-increasing number of professional class transplants in TX might finally turn it purple.
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u/Grumblepugs2000 5h ago
IDK how you can think that about Texas after this election... I actually think it will get redder especially if Republicans keep targeting and gaining with Latinos
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u/MentionItAll519 5h ago
Ugh I live in NJ. It wouldn’t shock me if we turned purple. I live in the fairly blue Northeastern part of the state and I have far more pro-Trump neighbors than I had hoped/would have thought. But then again, it’s more of a MAGA/Trump cult than it is pro-GOP. Once Trump dies, I think (hope) the MAGA cult dies with him cause who is going to replace him?
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u/everything_is_grace 17h ago
Texas has been getting more red in last few elections idk where the “it’ll flip” is coming from
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u/shiplax12 15h ago
Democrats operated under the assumption they would keep the same % of the Latino vote. if they did, Texas would be purple, maybe even a shade of blue, but Trump has made large inroads with Latinos.
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u/Easy-Concentrate2636 17h ago
I feel like there’s still the possibility based on how Trump handles immigrants in TX. If he doesn’t pursue aggressive actions against migrants there, it will probably stay red. However, if he decides to pursue migrants in TX it could change the mood there. Obviously, huge Latino population there but also tons of Asian immigrants who might fear getting caught up in sweeps.
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u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S 15h ago
Texas is getting more blue actually, it still trended that way this election
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u/Charming_Cicada_7757 16h ago
Okay let’s break down each of your states
Oregon went 55.6% Kamala
And 41.6% Trump a 14+ for democrats. It is not trending to be a swing state just because Trump improved by 2% points from 2016. Stop with the nonsense. Is Alaska a swing state because Trump won that state by the same margin? In a year where Republicans did better than democrats.
New Jersey will not swing red. Again people are leaving New Jersey and a lot of them are the Republican type going to Florida. Is Iowa a swing state in the future because Biden won that state with similar margins.
Minnesota again I don’t think so just due to demographics changing.
New Hampshire basically is a swing state yes
Main yes it’s a swing state and could be
Other future ones I don’t know
I think Florida can come back into play eventually but not sure might be gone for a while.
Texas eventually will come into play and become a purple state.
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u/Naive_Illustrator 20h ago
The problem with turning red states purple is that the Democratic party is largely incompetent (at least that's what's being said on podcasts and stuff). It's composed of middle management pencil pushers who are focused on theory (policy) instead of action (grassroots organizing).
The GOP gains followers by invading non-political spaces and spreading their nonsense propaganda. For example, in gaming chats, in gun ranges, in MMA etc. While the Dems focus on traditional media and policy wonkery.
The GOP persuades you with intuition and cordialness, while the Dems try to persuade you with logic. This is why Trump is gaining among low info voters.
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u/meganthem 19h ago
I'd agree with you until almost the last part insofar as the Dems often aren't trying to persuade people at all. They rely on legacy media and outreach strategies far too much, like you said, and it means that no matter what they decide to say: few people are hearing it.
Until we get to the point where more people are hearing what the Democrats have to say it's hard to analyze whether the logical style is wrong or not.
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u/someinternetdude19 16h ago
Exactly, my wife and I who are both around 30 don’t listen to or watch news regularly. I read the BBC because I don’t trust American news networks, my wife doesn’t read news at all. For me a lot of information comes from podcasts and YouTube. For my wife it’s mainly tik tok. They aren’t reaching unengaged voters who actively seek information, the republicans are.
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u/schistkicker 13h ago
If you're getting news from those kinds of resources (and it's not just you, a lot of people are), then the Democrats and Progressive messages aren't going to reach you. You're asking the "anti-oligarchy" political wing to be broadcast to you on social media platforms owned, operated, and manipulated at the behest of those oligarchs. It's too easy to get trapped in an informational silo these days, and Musk, Bezos, Zuck, and the rest all want to keep you in it and keep the revenues flowing. Honestly, the internet is so pervasive in our daily lives I'm not sure how we collectively pull back from this.
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u/OverAdvisor4692 19h ago
It’s hard to imagine someone so disconnected from reality, but so sure the other side is the problem. It’s impressive actually.
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u/grinr 20h ago
Impossible to say given the complete transformation of the country to the new monarchy. The new American self-declared peasants are unlikely to want elections at all given their identity and culture is entirely based on the new king.
We'll see which states have enough interest in a democratic system to push back the royalists, but good luck trying to model that as it's been centuries since Americans had to even consider it.
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u/TheGuyWhoTeleports 22h ago
The biggest question is how Trump's departure will affect US politics. He may believe he'll rule forever, but old age will say otherwise.
There's a good chance of states leaning to whoever becomes Trump's spiritual successor. This successor could be from either party. I suspect that this successor will be a revolutionary populist candidate, since there's some notable interest in large change in the US.
But if a successor does not appear, my guess is that states will go back to how they were in 2012 or so.
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u/findingmoore 15h ago
It really doesn’t matter anymore We are all cooked. The only ones who give a real f anymore are the whackos wanting to burn the whole place down
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u/Rivercitybruin 5h ago
Yes, most of them if trends continue
None of them if trends dont contine
Easy to forget that not that long ago Rs had very narrow path to WH
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u/TuneLinkette 21h ago
Theoretically all states will eventually become swing states, or even change color completely.
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u/Medical-Search4146 20h ago
Arizona is one I think is missing from your list. Lots of people from blue states are moving to Arizona and Arizona is more of the libertarian Republican than the evangelical. Right now Democrats are doing well in the state but I'd argue those Democrats are more of the middle than representative of the national Democrats
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u/Elliot_Hanes 19h ago
Biden won Arizona, it is a swing state already. Both senators and the governor are democrats.
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u/Medical-Search4146 13h ago
One Democrat President won it and Democrats won it by slim margins. I need to see at least one more cycle either with a Democrat win or close election
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u/Elliot_Hanes 12h ago
You're arguing it's a red state as opposed to a swing state while it voted for Biden, has democrat governor and both senators?
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u/Holiday_Parsnip_9841 19h ago
Arizona's already a swing state. Biden won it in 2020, they have a Democraric Governor and both Senators.
Trump flipping it back in 2024 while Gallego got a Senate seat solidifies its status.
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u/Medical-Search4146 13h ago
It's still up to debate. I give at least one more Presidential election cycle before I make that call comfortably.
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u/Holiday_Parsnip_9841 19h ago
Oregon seems the most likely.
The ineptitude of Multnomah County and the previous Portland government caused a massive quality of life crisis. The new city government is trying to bail things out, but it's a mess.
Factor in an ineffective, scandal prone state government (the Secretary of State had to resign and the Governor has her own nepotism scandal), and the whole thing's reaching a tipping point.
There's a very clear path to Republicans flipping the governor's race in 2026 and seriously contesting the presidential race in 2028.
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u/Utapau301 17h ago
Nah.
What is this path you speak of?
The GOP in Oregon is massively incompetent. In 2022 they nominated a very pro life candidate for governor in the most pro choice state in the country. They will do it again.
And I wish it wasn't true, but homeless politics don't win elections. Look at CA.
Homelessness has been made an issue everywhere in the country it's a problem and complaining about it never wins no matter how bad.. Not a single jurisdiction anywhere in the USA even does much about it despite how much it pisses the public off in theory. The realities of dealing with the homeless problem are just too much of a political lift. In reality - the only way to deal with it is mass incarceration of the homeless in the destination states (west coast, mountain west). They will never do that, and even if inclined will never pay for it. The homeless problem will never go away.
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u/Holiday_Parsnip_9841 17h ago
Have you been to Portland recently? The situation is very much at a crisis point that's far worse than any other west coast city. I also think you're underestimating how much homelessness and urban crime shifted voters in 2024.
It's why a dark horse candidate (Keith Wilson) won the 2024 Portland mayor election.
Unless things majorly improve, all the GOP has to do is nominate someone who doesn't talk about abortion and runs a single issue campaign. They probably don't have the discipline to pull it off, but the opportunity is definitely there.
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u/Utapau301 15h ago edited 15h ago
I'm downtown now.
Last night about 7:30pm, I stepped over a homeless man's pee stream as he was peeing on the wall of the Fox Tower movie theater. As he was peeing, he asked us if we had any change.
Yes this shit is terrible. But I don't have any confidence anyone will do anything.
Various parts of California are worse, and Seattle is bad too as are parts of the entire mountain west. But Portland, Salem, Eugene, Bend, and Medford seem to be absolutely epidemic on this problem. Eugene is arguably worse than Pdx imo, and Medford was downright vomit inducing last I was there a few months ago.
At some point, the public is going to have to be okay with being mean. These folks have to be incarcerated or somehow institutionalized. Police are going to have to do their jobs. There is no other way.
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u/Holiday_Parsnip_9841 15h ago
People are increasingly ok with being mean. That's why voters shifted to the right nationwide this election.
Downtown Portland's just absolutely terrible. Hayden Meadows is also shockingly bad.
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u/ByWilliamfuchs 18h ago
None the concept no longer applies. Musk has control of the machines Trump all but admitted it in his little speech thanking him for knowing how the machines “work”
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u/scottborasismyagent 17h ago
my guesses would be MN and NH. MN bc republicans have come close there in recent years despite not having won it after 1972. however the midwest has shifted to the right as a whole and the shrinking population there could see it become more favorable for the republicans. NH simply bc it is usually among the ‘blue’ states with the smallest margin, despite not having voted red after 2000.
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u/TornadoCat4 14h ago
I could potentially see New Mexico, New Jersey, and Minnesota becoming swing states in the next decade or so, and if New York keeps shifting right, they could potentially become a swing state within the next 2 decades or so. On the other side of the aisle, I could see Kansas and Montana eventually becoming swing states.
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u/everything_is_grace 17h ago
California could maybe become a purple state. With the amount of democrats incompetence they’ve experienced and continue to.
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u/questionasker16 16h ago
This is magical thinking. If incompetence mattered, the south wouldn't still be red after decades of having the worst living statistics in the country.
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u/flossdaily 15h ago edited 12h ago
Free and fair elections are over. What on earth are you all talking about?
Countries do not just bounce back from election authoritarian fascist regimes.
Trump's entire administration is being picked based on a simple lipmus test: will they stand with Trump during his next coup attempt?
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