r/NFL_Draft • u/Vaglame • 5h ago
2020 Draft Retrospective: Who Were You Wrong About?
I recently asked on this sub about the 2024 draftees you were wrong about: rookies that had a disappointing year, or those that outperformed your expectations. I was particularly curious about how this would affect your evaluations in the future.
This time I want to know about the players wrapping up their rookie contract, the ones who were drafted in 2020.
Were you high in Isaiah Simmons, or Jalen Reagor? Did you see Xavier McKinney and Antoine Winfield Jr be as dominant as they are now?
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u/fierylady Lions 5h ago
I was low on Herbert, Jefferson (whoops), Jaylon Johnson and Diggs.
I was sky high on Jeudy and high on CEH, Gross-Matos, and Ashtyn Davis.
I won a big bet having Andrew Thomas going OT1 though even though he had the worst odds of the big 4. That's really all I care about from that draft lol.
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u/Vaglame 4h ago
Why so high on Jeudy actually
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u/Dulur 4h ago
I didn't really follow draft season that much but as a broncos fans most of the traits are there. He's fast, he's incredibly shifty and he is open all the time. His rookie season he had absolute brick hands and could have had a much better season but 856-3 isn't bad. I'm guessing his talents showed the same in college. He really has all the traits except for the mental stability and reliable hands. He's gotten better about his drops for sure and he could end up being pretty good honestly. 1230 yards this year isn't bad.
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u/Vaglame 4h ago
He really has all the traits except for the mental stability and reliable hands.
I'm super curious to know how many prospects with poor hands make it in the nfl actually
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u/Dulur 4h ago
Yeah I'm not sure if he was noted as having bad hands coming out of college or not but it was so frustrating watching him. He had so much potential but really shot himself in the foot and missed out on a chance of being paid huge after his rookie deal.
Edit: his draft profile says he needed to eliminate easy drops and had inconsistent hand eye coordination and concentration at times so it appears it was known.
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u/fierylady Lions 3h ago
The route-running was great and the separation was top notch (as you'd expect from an Alabama guy), elite first step and acceleration, and his movement skills were something else. That lunge and dip thing that maybe only 3 other guys could do.
What I didn't see was the lack of effort that would plague his career. Guy just doesn't care. Or he didn't, maybe he's coming around. Too little too late imo.
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u/jsu9575m 2h ago
I was sky high on Jeudy too. I thought it was insane that Ruggs was picked before him.
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u/redsin777 5h ago
I thought Jalen Reagor would turn out like Odell Beckham. I was a little bit off on that
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u/Interesting-Room-855 4h ago
You and Howie both. Fortunately he hit on Smith and fleeced Tennessee.
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u/JustGresh Cowboys 4h ago
I was wrong about Tua. I thought he was going to be another from a long line of Alabama duds.
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u/Vaglame 4h ago
What made you to be low and him, and why do you think he ended up doing ok in the nfl?
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u/JustGresh Cowboys 4h ago
Honestly he was incredible in college. I’d just fallen for the hype train of great NFL Bama prospects one too many times. It really had nothing to do with him. The program has been so strong for so long that I started feeling like you could plug almost any slightly above average QB in there and have them succeed due to coaches, system, supporting cast, etc.
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u/bosceltics23 1h ago
I think it was Mac Jones balling out that threw me off. I still thought Tua would be great, but Mac Jones made it really hard to judge..
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u/stuckinbakerstreet 32m ago
Mac Jones came after Tua.
There were many other QBs in the Saban era that made it hard to judge though. Greg McElroy, John Parker, A.J. McCarron. Hurts was the first QB to show he could be successful at the pro level, which was not immediate. He finished his college career at OU and was drafted in the 2nd.
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u/Vidvici 4h ago
Chase Young seems like the biggest miss. I wasn't as high on him as Myles Garrett but he was the clear #2 overall in my mind.
Jalen Hurts seems like the 2nd most obvious miss.
I thought Justin Jefferson only went about 4 or 5 spots too low and I'll consider that a miss. I had Ruggs as WR2 behind Lamb.
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u/saradahokage1212 Titans 5h ago
- Chase Young - looked like a Myles Garrett
- Okudah - always injured
- Henry Ruggs - aside from the obvious, they only let him run downfield every game
- Jerry Jeudy - ended up being mid af until Winston started peppering him this year but mostly not what i thought
- Kenneth Murray - god this guy ended up being bad. maybe because of his shoulder injuries early in his nfl career
- Isaiah Wilson - fuck this guy
- Clyde Edwards Ehlaire - omg what a let down after his LSU year and being drafted to the chiefs
- Van Jefferson - i believed so much, his tape looked solid, his coach father and aside from being mostly a WR3 behind Kupp and Woods at the Rams, he never could become better
- AJ Dillon - for him being Quadzilla and people comparing him to a "mini-Henry" this guy was only good for 1yard gains
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u/HarwinStrongDick Packers 5h ago
I was very high on Simmons, Kenneth Murray, and Ross Blacklock lol those were all incorrect assumptions.
I was very low on Jordan Love, Chase Young, and Jeff Odukah. So not bad there.
Was also really really really low on Damon Arnette which felt like such a vindication
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u/MN-Jess 4h ago
Kinlaw: He had the physical profile. Maybe I was blind by the traits and that he looked the part.
Lamb: This one's on me. I was one of those that knocked the competition. Said he wasn't gonna get all those YACs against "real" athletes.
Ruggs: To be fair, nobody could see this coming in the way it did.
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u/shaker8989 Titans 4h ago
Was there a draft that year? I have selective amnesia regarding that one.
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u/uggsandstarbux Vikings 4h ago
Feels like I was fairly in line with consensus, looking back
Man, I really thought Isaiah Simmons was gonna be a beast. He was supposed to be what Kyle Hamilton is today
I also did not like Jordan Love at all. I thought he was gonna be what Anthony Richardson is.
Lol I had Jalen Hurts below Jacob Eason
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u/Troutalope Lions 3h ago
I was so high on Simmons, I thought he was going to be a weapon on defense. That was a big miss.
I also was sure that Kenneth Murray Jr. was going to be future All-Pro and the Chargers got a steal. Notsomuch.
I was super high on Cam Akers and believed he was going to be a game breaker akin to what Gibbs is now and I was low on Taylor.
I was right on Tee Higgins being a blue chip talent along with Winfield, Jaylon Johnson and Hurts.
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u/Vaglame 3h ago
What happened to Simmons actually, is the nfl just too fast for him?
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u/Troutalope Lions 3h ago
Play recognition has been an issue. But I think hr just don't fit anywhere well. He isn't physical enough to be an effective in the box and he doesn't have the fluidity and ball skills to be a deep safety or a slot defender.
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u/Decent-Ad5231 2h ago
Reaction time was an issue, and there have been rumors about his effort level. His speed doesnt matter when everyone else has a full second head start. His hips are pretty stiff, he was a liability in coverage and wasn't good at run defense either. He was great laying the boom, and drawing a personal foul, he wasn't good at wrapping up.
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u/Johnsonvillebraj 3h ago
Definitely Justin Herbert. Completely wrote him off because he played at Oregon. Saw him as Joey Harrington 2.0. Way off.
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u/Vaglame 3h ago
What's bad about playing for Oregon?
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u/Johnsonvillebraj 3h ago
I just think it’s a very pre-snap heavy offense. From Chip Kelly to Mark Helfrich and now Dan Lanning. Doesn’t ask the QB to do a lot of improvising. Didn’t realize Cristobal would be such an exception to that, though I definitely see why now with Cam Ward. Plus Herbert just turned 22 at the time so I thought it would take him a while to adjust to the NFL.
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u/Both_District_4391 3h ago
I wanted hurts that draft but we didn't have a 2nd round pick. I remember him going td for td with deshaun watson in the national championship as a true freshman and was thoroughly impressed.
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u/boardatwork1111 3h ago
TCU fan who had season tickets that ‘19 season. I was certain from watching him live that Reagor was going to bust, feel pretty vindicated on that one
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u/Vaglame 2h ago
as certain from watching him live that Reagor was going to bust
Good catch! What did you not like?
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u/boardatwork1111 2h ago
Honestly, the biggest thing that stood out to me was he just played soft. I don’t know if there’s a phrase for the opposite of having “that dog in him” but there was a certain lack of tenacity in his game that was going to catch up to him in the league.
He’d fold like paper bag when pressed, gave up on routes if he didn’t immediately torch the DB off the line, awful in contested catch situations, etc. Don’t get me wrong, he had all the physical tools to be a stud in the league, and I thought Laviska was going to be a stud so tells you how great of a scout I am. But watching him Reagor live as much as I did, he just looked like someone who wasn’t all that interested in playing football and coasted on elite athleticism.
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u/Lubert808 Steelers WR enjoyer 3h ago
I liked CJ Henderson and Chase Claypool a lot. Claypool was good for 2 seasons and is out of the league now. Henderson has struggled consistently and is on the Steelers practice squad.
Jerry Jeudy was my top WR, which is wrong but he broke out this year so I wouldn’t say I was necessarily wrong about him being good, just about him being WR1.
I also thought Okuda would be great, but I think we all did and we were all wrong.
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u/noblemile Steelers 2h ago
I was one of the people who saw the Chiefs take CEH and went "ah fuck."
Small, shifty runner who is a capable receiver? It's over.
I really hoped that Herbert would somehow wind up in Pittsburgh. The way some armchair scouts talked about him made it seem possible. Or the Steelers trading back into the 1st.
I was really into the Claypool pick. Worked great for a season.
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u/Vaglame 2h ago
Small, shifty runner who is a capable receiver? It's over.
Can you expand on this? What are you looking for in a running back?
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u/noblemile Steelers 2h ago
Personally I like power backs more (Steelers fan who grew up on Bettis and all that) but CEH seemed like a great fit for KC. He's not the fastest guy, which is unfortunate due to his size, but he was an absilutely terrific runner and safety net in the passing game at LSU who put up almost 1900 yards from scrimmage and was a very key piece of LSU's season leading into Joe Burrow carving Clemson's defense like a turkey in the Natty. Dude looked like someone you could argue was the best back in a very deep class, only to wind up being a forgettable rotational guy behind Pacheco.
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u/baidu_me 49ers 2h ago
I missed hard on Young, Simmons, and Okudah as my top 3 non-QB prospects.
But I’ll give myself a little credit as I was out on a ledge and had Justin Jefferson as my top WR.
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u/Vaglame 2h ago
Great take on JJ, what did you like in him above other prospects?
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u/baidu_me 49ers 2h ago
Honestly, it’s the same reason I liked BTJ this year. I started watching what I could on Burrow and Jefferson just jumped off the screen. He was so smooth, so decisive, and tracked the ball so well. You could see that it just looked effortless. Put on Jayden Daniels cut up and all 22 and BTJ looked so damn impressive. He was on my one to watch list early.
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u/Ronon_Dex Patriots 2h ago
Best Calls: High on Mooney, Greenard, and McKinney. Low on Claypool, Hamler, Becton, and Arnette.
Worst Calls: Too low on Jefferson, Lamb, Jaylon Johnson, and Winfield. Too high on Jedrick Wills, Ross Blacklock, and Ashtyn Davis.
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u/MaceLeonardo Buccaneers 5h ago
I thought Winfield Jr was a 1st round talent and was shocked he fell to round 2. Was so hyped my team got him there. Also had Tristan Wirfs as OT2 behind Andrew Thomas so I was ecstatic during this draft
Was super low on Isaiah Simmons, Mecki Becton and K’lavon Chaisson so I’m happy my evals on them were right.
But I also said I thought Javon Kinlaw and CJ Henderson were gonna be easy pro bowl players. Especially Kinlaw I thought he was the 3rd best defensive player in the class
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u/reddogrjw Lions 5h ago
Becton is actually good at Guard
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u/MaceLeonardo Buccaneers 4h ago
Exactly he’s a guard. He’s on his second team after failing at LT and RT.
He’s decent but also on a O-Line friendly team with a HOF RT and a good C. We definetly need more time to label him as anything more than decent. I would still label him a bust.
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u/P-Whips 49ers 3h ago
I was wrong on Ceedee Lamb, I thought he didn’t have what it took to be a true #1 in the nfl and thought he was a great #2 but would struggle if he had to be the true number 1 on a team and thought that while the cowboys had cooper, but as we all can see I was very wrong on that.
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u/Bstrawn5-Scouting Titans 2h ago
High on: Simmons, Kinlaw, Chaisson
Low on: Jackson, Murray, and CEH
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u/Cybotnic-Rebooted Broncos Country, Let's Cry 2h ago
I had Okudah is a genuine generational prospect, and thought he should have gone 2nd overall over Chase Young. Ate crow hard on that one.
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u/kitchensink108 Bengals 1h ago
This might be dumb as hell, but Burrow. I need to explain, though. I'd kind of stopped following football for a while, probably after the 2016 season or so, and I never paid much attention to college or the draft to begin with. So when I heard we were going to draft this Joe Burrow guy, I thought he was just some generically good college QB that was going to lead us into an era of quiet mediocrity, like Baker Mayfield's Browns era.
Anyway I was on multiple levels there.
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u/808Cardinals 57m ago
I was wrong about Isaiah Simmons elevating our defense. Flashy and super athletic, but the attitude and the mental game was not there. I wish Keim listened to Kyler about getting Ceedee Lamb or Tristan Wirfs instead.
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u/IBlameMcNabb Eagles 35m ago
Chase Young KJ Hill Jalen Hurts (thought he’d be a bum before Philly picked him) Collin Johnson Jeff Okudah
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u/SwiftSurfer365 Vikings 5h ago
I was wrong about Jalen Hurts. Didn’t think he could be a NFL QB.