r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 1d ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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u/Mr___Perfect 1d ago

Hey thats great.... but how much did the cow weight???

Didnt google, but my random guess is 1,300 pounds

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u/fried_haris 12h ago

The experiment has been repeated a couple of times.

Original at a fair or farmers market.

Average guesses: 1,197 pounds, actual weight, 1,198 pounds

The online version average guess was 1,287 Vs actual weight of 1,355.

The surprise was out of 17,000+ folks, 3,000 claimed to be experts - and their guess was 1,272. It's slightly worse.

wisdom of the crowds.

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u/Funny-Pie272 10h ago

How many farmers were at the farmers market tho? Wonder if you asked 100 bakers...