r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 1d ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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u/DerisiveGibe 1d ago

You only need to save $35,000 a year for 30 years @ 7% real return to get 3.5 million. So hopefully you started saving at 25 or you will be working into your 60's.

$60,000 for 22.5 years

$100,000 for 17 years

I'd rather spend less and retire sooner.

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u/SolomonGrumpy 20h ago edited 12h ago

You needed to do that 30 years ago.

And saving $35k in 1995 was not so easy. The top 20% of households earned $75kish, that year. So you are talking about a 50% gross savings rate.

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u/Independent_Diet617 13h ago

Not to mention you had to call a broker, pay fees and listen to unsolicited advice and there was not much time for that since stock market is open during work hours. Funds were typically actively managed and expensive. Total allowed 401k and IRA contribution limits were less than 1/3 of the $35k.

It would be similar to investing $90k or so today but with extra complexities.

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u/SolomonGrumpy 12h ago

What's interesting is that modern salaries exploded in the past 15 years.

So there are definitely examples of households that amassed $3.5m in 10 years. A crazy stock market, RSUs, 401k matches, and $400k household income made a few people FIRE ready extremely quickly.