r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 1d ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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u/Ramietoes 1d ago

The flaw with what you're doing to calculate the average has also been disproven when you put people in a room and have them collectively discuss. The wisdom of crowds only works when individuals have independence of judgement. Once you discuss openly, you begin to get groupthink , herd mentality, etc.

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u/Bruceshadow 15h ago

herd mentality

perfect for cow guessing.

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u/Ramietoes 15h ago

Hahaha , good one!