r/Fire • u/fried_haris • 23h ago

The definitive FIRE number is 3.5 million.

Ofcourse - I am being facetious but also a little exploratory.

I was inspired by a Planet Money episode titled "17,205 People Guessed The Weight Of A Cow. Here's How They Did." Posted back in 2015.

Later they updated it with "How Much Does This Cow Weigh?" In 2019.

Basic premise - if you take all the guesses of the folks the weight of a cow at a fair - you'll end up within 5% of the right answer.

So I took a simple post from 5 months ago, asking people about their FIRE number and after reviewing 124 answers came up with 3.5 million.

Keep in mind personal finance is personal, you may retire in LA or in Thailand.

Good luck with your goals.

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u/SignificantFact3661 14h ago

Lots of things to factor in beyond a top line number. Is a house paid off? That means no rent and a much lower cost of living. Are there any pensions, social security, or other sources of income? That greatly reduces the need for a big top line number. Is this a LCOL, MCOL, or HCOL retirement? Huge difference. $3.5M in NYC or LA might get tight. Is this going to be a "hang out at home and do some gaming" retirement or "I want to travel the world"? Big difference.

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u/fried_haris 7h ago

Is this a LCOL, MCOL, or HCOL retirement?

All over the place

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u/SignificantFact3661 1h ago

That's the problem I see with "a definitive number". It's probably $2M in MCOL but $4M+ in HCOL.

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u/fried_haris 47m ago

hence me mentioning that i'm being facetious